Author: Bluru

As the day of the U.S. presidential election approaches, the cryptocurrency industry is also on edge — regarding the globally discussed topic of "cryptographic assets," it represents a significant governance issue with clear differences between U.S. presidential candidate Trump and the outgoing Biden administration, and it remains a focal point of controversy throughout the current election campaign.

Two Perspectives

The final two candidates in this U.S. presidential election, Trump has a very clear view on the cryptocurrency industry and participated in the Bitcoin conference held in Nashville in July 2024, publicly expressing his "support." In contrast, the other presidential candidate, Harris, has maintained a relatively vague stance on the digital asset industry, but her position is comparatively more moderate than that of the current Biden administration.

During the campaign, some of Trump's policy suggestions regarding digital assets that have garnered significant public attention include:

• Establishing a national BTC reserve: Trump stated that his administration would "retain all BTC currently held or acquired by the U.S. government" and would become "the core of the national strategic BTC reserve." As of October 2023, the U.S. government reportedly holds over $5 billion in BTC, most of which comes from asset seizures in criminal cases.
• Establishing a Digital Asset Advisory Committee: Trump proposed the creation of an organization called the "Bitcoin and Crypto Assets Presidential Advisory Committee," whose rules would be written by those who love the industry, rather than those who oppose it.
• Preventing the Federal Reserve from creating a central bank digital currency: The development of central bank digital currencies by various countries' central banks has become a trend, but the Federal Reserve has yet to decide whether to create a fully digital dollar. Trump has publicly opposed this idea multiple times in 2024. In May 2024, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill prohibiting the Federal Reserve from creating a digital dollar, but whether this bill will ultimately pass into law still requires a lengthy deliberation process.
• Creating a crypto platform, World Liberty Financial: Aimed at promoting the widespread use of Stablecoins and decentralized finance. According to public reports, the project's early white paper mentioned the launch of a new digital asset called $WLFI, which is planned to be sold to the public.

Although three years ago, Trump held a skeptical attitude towards crypto assets and criticized them on social media for facilitating illegal activities, since August 2024, he has repositioned himself as a staunch supporter of crypto assets as a presidential candidate.

Harris previously served as the Vice President under the current Biden administration, which has taken a strong regulatory stance towards the cryptocurrency industry.

So far, Harris has not made many statements regarding the cryptocurrency industry. On September 22, 2024, during a fundraising event in New York City, Harris mentioned plans to "encourage innovative technologies such as artificial intelligence and digital assets" for the first time.

At the same time, media reports indicate that Harris expressed during an event in Manhattan that she might take a more open stance towards the cryptocurrency industry than the current administration. However, Harris has yet to propose specific policy plans.

Additionally, considering the need to compete for potential voters, the Democratic leaders behind Harris are working to improve relations with the cryptocurrency industry. A digital asset advocacy organization called Crypto4Harris held a virtual town hall meeting that gathered several Democratic members.

Actions in the Crypto Market

According to media reports citing data, companies in the cryptocurrency industry, such as Coinbase and Ripple, have become dominant corporate donors in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, accounting for 48% of all corporate political donations in 2024, nearly half.

According to data from the nonprofit organization OpenSecrets, which tracks campaign spending, as of August 2024, the cryptocurrency industry has spent $119 million on political donations, surpassing the political donation amounts from all other industries.

In this U.S. presidential election, the cryptocurrency industry has already sensed an opportunity, hoping to elect government officials who support the cryptocurrency industry.

Reportedly, since 2010, companies in the cryptocurrency industry have been actively participating in political elections, with their depth, breadth, and donation amounts second only to fossil fuel companies, making it the second-largest industry actively involved in U.S. political elections.

A recent report by Grayscale, the issuer of Ethereum spot ETFs, titled "Election 2024: The Role of Crypto," revealed survey data that reflects some market conditions in the U.S. digital asset industry:

• Among U.S. voters surveyed, 53% are familiar with crypto assets. This figure has increased compared to the 2023 survey.
• Regulation can still play an important role in enhancing investor confidence in crypto assets — 80% of surveyed U.S. voters believe that regulatory agencies can play a role in managing emerging technologies, and 20% of surveyed voters indicated that they would be more likely to hold crypto assets if there were clearer regulations or policies regarding digital assets.
• 40% of surveyed U.S. voters stated that they are more concerned about presidential candidates' positions on BTC or other crypto assets in this election compared to previous elections.
• Two-thirds of surveyed U.S. voters indicated that they would consider presidential candidates' positions on digital assets before voting. Among them, 56% of surveyed voters said they would be more likely to vote for candidates who maintain a learning and understanding attitude towards digital assets rather than those who are indifferent.

Opposing Voices

The social event prediction betting site Polymarket shows that in early October 2024, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris's support rates reached a tie, close to 50%. However, from late October 2024, Trump's support rate suddenly surged, reaching 65.5% by October 31, 2024, becoming the focus of election discussions.

Experts studying elections have publicly stated that this situation may stem from the enthusiasm of a few speculators in the cryptocurrency industry trying to boost Trump's campaign.

Although the influence of the cryptocurrency industry in political games seems to be increasing, opposition voices against cryptocurrency assets in the U.S. have never ceased.

Gary Gensler, the chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, stated in a media interview that the cryptocurrency industry is "full of fraudsters and speculators." He pointed out: "Crypto assets are just a small part of the U.S. and global capital markets, but they could undermine ordinary investors' trust in capital markets… Global investors have lost too much money because companies in the cryptocurrency industry have not followed regulatory requirements."

Current Crypto Friendliness Does Not Mean Future Crypto Friendliness

With over a hundred million dollars in election funding driving it, cryptocurrency assets have become an important factor in the 2024 U.S. election, influencing not only presidential candidates but also a large number of voters.

Trump attracts cryptocurrency supporters through public and positive commitments, while Harris and the Democrats are striving to keep up, unwilling to give up the substantial election cash flow that can be gained by supporting this industry. Meanwhile, supporters in the cryptocurrency field are trying to exchange their electoral support for more favorable regulatory policies for the future development of the industry.

However, amidst the noise, a blog post written by Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin remains worth revisiting, where he expressed the following views on the relationship between cryptocurrency assets and politics:

If you see a politician who is friendly towards crypto assets, one thing you can do is check their views on crypto assets from five years ago.

At the same time, you can also look for their views on topics related to the crypto industry from five years ago. In particular, try to find topics where "supporting freedom" and "supporting corporations" are inconsistent.

If a politician supports crypto assets, the key question to ask is: Are their reasons for doing so correct? Do they have a vision for the technological, political, and economic developments of the 21st century that aligns with yours? Do they have a longer-term positive vision beyond immediate concerns like "defeating other bad tribes"?

If so, that's great: you should support them and clearly state that this is why you support them. If not, then either completely disengage or seek better forces to ally with.

At the same time, Vitalik Buterin explicitly opposes the trend of choosing political loyalty based on who "supports crypto," arguing that this decision-making approach carries high risks and may contradict the original intentions and values that led you into the cryptocurrency space.

As the U.S. presidential election day on November 5, 2024, approaches, the struggle between the two-party presidential candidates is intensifying. Regarding the future of cryptocurrency assets, as Vitalik Buterin has consistently expressed: the future of digital assets should be related to a "decentralized" future; "crypto" is not just about digital assets and blockchain — what we need is not just support for "crypto," but to support those deeper goals.

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