Market trends often experience significant fluctuations around the U.S. election day.
Written by: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
On October 30, Bitcoin failed to reach a new all-time high, having risen above $73,600, just $100 short of $73,777. Unfortunately, the momentum faded, and after several rounds of consolidation, it ultimately declined. By around 9 PM on October 31, BTC accelerated its drop, briefly dipping to around $68,800, and has since fallen back to around $69,500.
After rising above $2,700, ETH also experienced a significant drop, hitting a low of around $2,500, erasing gains from the previous days. Altcoins saw a widespread decline.
In terms of contract data, $276 million was liquidated in the last 24 hours, with $247 million in long positions liquidated.
Why did Bitcoin fail to break the all-time high? What will the market trend look like going forward?
Support for Harris in Swing States Increases Before U.S. Election
The U.S. presidential election will officially begin on November 5, and the market often experiences significant fluctuations in the days leading up to it.
Looking back at the BTC market on the day of the 2020 U.S. presidential election, the two days prior saw a decline in the crypto market, followed by a rise on the day the election results were announced, and then another decline in the following two days before a subsequent rally.
Additionally, according to a report by Forbes, a recent poll shows Harris leading Trump by a narrow margin of just 1%. In seven key swing states that could determine the final election outcome, Harris leads Trump with 49% to 48% support, whereas a week ago, Trump led Harris with 50% to 46%.
This change in numbers has increased the uncertainty surrounding the election results. U.S. stocks opened lower and the decline widened, with technology stocks, chip stocks, and AI concept stocks also experiencing a collective drop.
However, data from Polymarket shows that Trump's probability of winning is significantly higher than Harris's.
Some investors, exercising caution, have chosen to stay on the sidelines and wait for the U.S. election results to settle.
Future Market Trends
Bitcoin has historically performed well in the fourth quarter following halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, with investment returns of 97.7%, 58.17%, and 168.02%, respectively. Notably, the return in November 2016 was 5.42%, and in November 2020, it was 42.95%. The return for this month is still worth anticipating.
It is worth noting that Bitcoin recorded a 7.35% increase in September this year, marking its best performance in history. Historically, whenever Bitcoin has closed higher in September, it has continued to rise until the end of the year.
Zhao Changpeng Hints at a Bull Market in 2025
During an interview at the Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai, Zhao Changpeng stated that he cannot predict the future but can analyze history. Historically, Bitcoin has gone through very clear four-year cycles. The years 2013 and 2017 were bull markets. However, 2012 was a "recovery year," which many people do not trace back to. 2016 was also a "recovery year," followed by a surge in 2017. Similarly, 2020 was a "recovery year," with 2021 being a bull market.
Based on current analysis, 2024 should also be a "recovery year." What will happen next year is unclear, but in the long run, the outlook for the entire industry remains very positive.
Standard Chartered Analyst: Trump's Victory Will Propel Bitcoin to $125,000 by Year-End
Geoff Kendrick, head of global digital asset research at Standard Chartered, stated that Bitcoin prices may experience a pullback before the U.S. presidential election on November 5, and volatility is expected to increase in the coming days. As traders choose to close positions for profit before the election, the likelihood of Bitcoin breaking above the historical high of $73,700 before the U.S. election is decreasing.
Geoff Kendrick added that if the Republican Party (Trump) achieves a significant victory in the U.S. Congress, Bitcoin prices will experience greater volatility, potentially pushing Bitcoin to $125,000 by year-end and triggering a new wave of altcoin enthusiasm.
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