Trump's chances of winning decrease.

Written by: BitpushNews

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor released the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, showing that the core PCE price index for September rose to an annual rate of 2.7%, higher than the expected 2.6%. The annual rate for the overall PCE price index in September was 2.1%, the lowest level since early 2021, slightly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

Following the data release, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond (TNX) briefly climbed to 4.33%, causing a downturn in the financial markets.

By the close, all three major U.S. indices saw significant declines, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq dropping 1.86%, 0.90%, and 2.76%, respectively.

According to Bitpush data, Bitcoin fell below the support level of $72,000 around midday, subsequently dropping below $70,000. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $70,452, with a 24-hour decline of nearly 3%.

Altcoins also experienced widespread declines, with SOL falling below $170 and BNB dropping below $580, both with a 24-hour decline of over 3%. The overall market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is currently $2.34 trillion, with Bitcoin's market share at 59%.

Despite the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Tool indicating that the market generally expects a 25 basis point rate cut in the last two FOMC meetings of 2024, investors remain cautious ahead of the U.S. presidential election.

Trump's chances of winning decrease

Data from the crypto betting site Polymarket shows that Trump's chances of winning have dropped from 67% two days ago to 63%, while Democratic candidate Kamala Harris's chances have increased from 33% to 36%.

Meanwhile, the stock price of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) has plummeted 34% over the past three days, after rising 352% last month.

Brian Rudick, head of research at cryptocurrency trading firm GSR, noted, "Since Trump began accepting digital assets in May, the correlation between Trump's election winning chances and Bitcoin prices has only been 25-35%." However, he stated that this correlation may increase as election day approaches.

Has Uptober been realized?

Looking at the overall performance this month, Bitcoin plummeted to a low of $58,855 on October 10 but then began a rebound, rising close to historical highs, with a current 30-day increase of approximately 16.08%. According to market analyst Nagato, a closing price below $71,400 this month would indicate "failure."

In a post on X, he wrote, "Bitcoin still has some time before the monthly closing price, which could become one of the most important closing prices in Bitcoin's history. $71,400 is the bottom line. If it closes above this level, it will further validate Uptober."

TradingView analyst TradingShot pointed out that as the month comes to a close, unless BTC drops $7,000 in the next few hours, it will close in the green. He stated, "This will be the second consecutive green monthly close since March."

Analysts noted, "This prolonged 7-month consolidation phase is not unfamiliar to Bitcoin, as it is common to see several consecutive months of non-green closes during accumulation phases in a bull market."

TradingShot emphasized, "So far, in the current bull market, we have experienced three such phases (including March 2024), and once the market closes with two consecutive green monthly closes, a rebound typically follows. The bull market from 2019-2021 had three such consecutive green monthly closes, with a very clear accumulation phase, while the bull market from 2015-2018 had countless instances. It is clear from the long-term chart that when the market closes with two consecutive green monthly closes, it has always been a good buy signal."

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