Airdrop 50%, but the current price has dropped 46%.

Written by: Golem, Odaily Planet Daily

At 10:30 AM today, Casey, the founder of Ordinals and Runes, opened the fair minting of his new rune MEMENTO•MORI, which was completed in 9 blocks. During this period, Bitcoin network transaction fees surged, with the median fee exceeding 500 satoshis per byte. According to data from Magic Eden, MEMENTO•MORI currently has a market value of 17 million USD, and the trading volume has surpassed 100 BTC, approximately 7.81 million USD.

Different voices emerged in the community before and after the MEMENTO•MORI airdrop and minting:

• "With just 5 dollars, I got an airdrop worth hundreds of dollars."
• "The minting will definitely be competitive; we need to prepare in advance."
• "I'm afraid the minting will be buried; I should buy some on the trading market first."
• "There must be insider trading; this is all part of Casey's conspiracy."
• ……

Advance airdrop of 50%, participating addresses profit hundreds of times

MEMENTO•MORI was etched by Casey on October 22 on top of his previously hard-coded 0th rune UNCOMMON•GOODS, which has a total supply of 100 million pieces. However, today only 50% of the total supply was fairly minted, while the other 50% was reserved in advance by Casey and airdropped to subscribers of his podcast "Hell Money" early this morning.

However, this airdrop did not occur without warning like other popular airdrops in the Bitcoin ecosystem. As early as October 24, Casey revealed in the Hell Money podcast that the 50% of the rune MEMENTO•MORI reserved in advance would be entirely airdropped to his podcast subscribers, and he stated that no snapshot had been taken yet. This seemed to be a hint, and fortunately, the subscription cost for the Hell Money podcast is not high, requiring only 5 dollars per month at a minimum, so many players subscribed to try to get the airdrop.

On October 30, lifofifo announced the list of addresses that received the MEMENTO•MORI airdrop on the X platform, totaling 2,907 addresses. The amount received by each address from the airdrop was related to the subscription tier and duration. Even those who chose to subscribe at the lowest tier of 5 dollars/month after Casey announced the airdrop could receive about 1,400 MEMENTO•MORI.

Casey spent approximately 31,000 USD on transaction fees for this airdrop, and according to data from Magic Eden, after the airdrop was completed, the floor price and trading volume of MEMENTO•MORI surged, with the highest single price exceeding 400 satoshis, a value of over 350 USD, which compared to the minimum participation cost of 5 USD, resulted in profits of dozens of times.

Minting heat not as expected, price continues to decline

Based on Casey's "status" and influence in the Bitcoin ecosystem, and since MEMENTO•MORI is, in a sense, his first rune, the community expected that when minting began, Bitcoin network fees would be raised to four digits. According to cost predictions from Bitcoin ecosystem blogger CG, if the minting network fee exceeds 1,000 satoshis per byte, the cost of a single MEMENTO•MORI would reach 110 USD, and the initial market value would exceed 10 million USD.

In reality, before the minting began, according to trading prices on Magic Eden, the market value of MEMENTO•MORI had already surpassed 20 million USD. If a cost game were to be played, the community estimated that the minting cost would be above 1,500 satoshis per byte. Therefore, some players prepared enough addresses and transaction fees in advance; others believed that the risk of being buried in minting was too high and preferred to buy in the market first, planning to arbitrage when minting costs soared.

However, unexpectedly, although the Bitcoin network fees increased after minting began, they did not soar above 1,000 satoshis per byte as anticipated; the median miner fee remained around 500 satoshis per byte. Meanwhile, the trading floor price of MEMENTO•MORI on Magic Eden continued to decline alongside the minting progress, with the latest transaction price at 230 satoshis, approximately 160 USD, down about 46% from the price before minting.

The market heat generated by MEMENTO•MORI did not meet expectations. Aside from the considerable profits for users who received the airdrop through subscriptions, those who bought before minting or did not arbitrage in time after minting did not see ideal profits.

Is MEMENTO•MORI Casey's conspiracy?

Although the current price of MEMENTO•MORI has not dropped below the initial price, the trading volume and price surged after the airdrop, and the heat and price quickly collapsed after the fair minting began. Coupled with the previously opaque airdrop rules and the large room for manipulation, many community members complained that although they had subscribed, they did not receive the airdrop, which inevitably raises suspicions of human factors behind the scenes.

The level of PVP in new projects in the Bitcoin ecosystem is not as high as in Solana Meme, but the number of participants and the amount of funds are also far less than in Solana Meme. This has led to a unique on-chain arbitrage type of new project, where once a project is fully minted, its lifecycle also ends. The pursuit of fairness in new projects in the Bitcoin ecosystem has been longstanding; excessive reservations by project parties and teams are often seen as negative. However, as the level of PVP deepens and external funding injections remain absent for a long time, people's attention to tokens with fair minting and communities built solely on consensus has significantly decreased.

As a result, funds and attention have shifted to assets issued by individuals or leading communities with certain halos, expecting these assets to bring wealth opportunities under their influence, but in most cases, they end up being the ones getting harvested.

After the minting of MEMENTO•MORI began, Casey again issued a disclaimer on the X platform, emphasizing that MEMENTO•MORI has no value and is just a "junk coin."

Casey mentioned MEMENTO•MORI in his podcast, stating that it is related to death, primarily reminding people to cherish the brevity of life and to contemplate the inevitability of death. This is indeed a nice sentiment, but most players are more concerned about MEMENTO•MORI because of its "Casey halo." Perhaps this rune is truly an experiment or game for him rather than a conspiracy, but for most players, it remains just a once-loved asset.

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