Author: Nan Zhi, Odaily Planet Daily
In the early hours of today, BTC briefly rose to 73,650 USDT before retreating, just about 130 USDT shy of this year's previous high of 73,787.1 USDT in March. On the other hand, a series of important macro events, including U.S. non-farm payroll data and interest rate cuts in November, are approaching, and the volatility of crypto assets is expected to increase further. A new all-time high for Bitcoin seems imminent, with just one final push needed. In this article, Odaily Planet Daily will outline the views and arguments of institutions regarding the future market trends.
10x Research: Market Narrative Shifts, Bitcoin Aiming for $100,000
10x Research points out in its market analysis that as ETF demand grows parabolically, Bitcoin is expected to follow suit, potentially reaching $101,694 by the end of January 2025. A strong bullish window is expected to continue into the first quarter of 2025.
The narrative is no longer positioning DeFi as an external alternative to the future and traditional financial systems but is shifting towards "digital gold Bitcoin." This framework positions Bitcoin as a permanent, long-term asset in institutional portfolios.
Bitfinex: Bitcoin to Break New Highs Next Month
Analysts at cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex state that the possibility of Trump winning the presidential election, combined with historically bullish market conditions, could create a "perfect storm" for price action, likely pushing Bitcoin to new all-time highs next month.
"The combination of election uncertainty, the 'Trump trade' narrative, and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter creates a perfect storm for Bitcoin. Regardless of how prices move in the two weeks leading up to the election, the future will be an exciting time."
Analysts note that despite significant volatility in Bitcoin due to geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East and other macroeconomic issues in the U.S., expectations of Trump's potential victory in the November 5 election have led to a substantial rebound in its price.
Options Data: $80,000 Becomes Key Price Level, Call Selling Dominates
According to data from DeFi derivatives platform Derive, as the November 5 U.S. election approaches, Bitcoin traders are preparing for increased volatility, with price fluctuations expected to reach up to 20%.
Nick Forster, founder of Derive, stated on Monday: "As we approach significant financial events, the latest trading analysis reveals some compelling market dynamics insights."
Data shows that bets are concentrated around the $80,000 Bitcoin strike price, with strong sales of short-term call options as traders use option premiums to prepare for potential price movements.
Forster noted: "The dominance of call selling indicates that traders are strategically collecting premiums, while the focus on the $80,000 target highlights a potential turning point for Bitcoin."
He explained that in the past 24 hours, call options accounted for over 47%, as traders seek to capitalize on the "premium" brought by election-related volatility. The volatility patterns across different expiration dates suggest that traders are preparing for fluctuations ahead of next week, but remain uncertain about the direction of price movements.
VanEck: Bitcoin Trends Correlate with Trump's Winning Probability, Inversely Correlated with the Dollar Long-Term
Matthew Siegel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, stated that Bitcoin's recent rise appears to be related to political changes and global economic concerns. Siegel pointed out that factors such as the upcoming U.S. election, changes in money supply, and international developments in Bitcoin mining have influenced recent price trends.
Regarding the impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on Bitcoin's price movements, he explained that historically, Bitcoin tends to react to changes in political sentiment, especially when candidates perceived as more supportive of digital assets show an advantage in polls.
The recent price movements align with the rising betting odds for Trump, a candidate who supports cryptocurrencies. Siegel stated: "We believe this is a very favorable setup for Bitcoin entering the election. We saw the exact same pattern in 2020 when Bitcoin lagged and volatility was low. Once the winner is announced, we will experience a high volatility rebound as new buyers enter the market."
He also emphasized the importance of Bitcoin's long-term inverse correlation with the dollar. He added that periods of dollar weakness often coincide with rising Bitcoin prices as investors seek alternative stores of value. Another key factor he mentioned is the correlation between Bitcoin and the growth of the money supply, particularly M2, which tracks the supply of cash and readily available funds. Siegel noted that the recent policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve have led to a renewed acceleration in the money supply, rekindling interest in Bitcoin.
DWF Co-founder: Market Unstable but Bullish Direction
DWF Labs co-founder Andrei Grachev posted on X: "October (Uptober) is the first month of the bullish cycle from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025. The market remains very unstable, but the direction is positive."
"In my view, the current trends include Meme, the correct launch of Meme coin platforms, yield assets, artificial intelligence, and RWA."
Big Moves Coming, 7 Out of 9 Historical Similar Situations Resulted in Gains
Technical analyst Tony Severino stated in a recent article that Bitcoin is about to experience significant price volatility as its Bollinger Bands are showing one of the tightest formations in history. When the Bollinger Bands are at their tightest levels, often referred to as "Bollinger Band squeeze," it indicates low volatility, which may set the stage for a strong price breakout.
Severino pointed out that Bitcoin's Bollinger Bands are indicators used to assess its price volatility and determine trend direction, and this is "one of the three tightest instances in history" over a two-week timeframe.
Historically, such contractions have led to significant price volatility for Bitcoin. A similar situation occurred in April 2016 when the Bollinger Bands first tightened significantly. Following that, Bitcoin's price began to rise sharply over the next few months, marking the beginning of a bullish trend. Another key example occurred in July 2023 when the Bollinger Bands again reached an extremely tight state. Similar to April 2016, this was followed by a significant price increase.
It is important to note that while a tightening range suggests the potential for significant volatility, it does not predict the direction of the volatility. The outcome could be a substantial increase or a significant decrease. For example, a similar pattern observed in 2018 led to a sharp decline in Bitcoin's price.
Historical data shows that Bitcoin has risen seven times after nine tightening ranges.
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