The Reasons and Views on $luce's Pullback - Just a Repetition of History
I bought $goat at a super "high position" of 200 million, and just as it was about to double, a co-founder of a16z emphasized that this coin had nothing to do with him and that he didn't hold it, leading to a sharp decline back to my entry point.
After he posted, I commented, "This is a good thing," and while firmly holding, I also informed friends in a small group that this was a good opportunity to get in.
The reason I dared to think this way is due to my understanding of the target, the narrative, and observations of the number of addresses, etc. As long as the narrative of the target remains unchanged and the number of addresses continues to grow, any news from celebrities actually just attracts more attention and more addresses, as well as greater consensus, which is why I firmly held on after the initial release.
Currently, the growth rate of addresses for $luce exceeds that of $goat. Various secondary creations can be found with a quick search on Twitter; everything is as expected. However, its problem is that the rise has been too strong, continuously increasing without a significant pullback, which I believe is necessary—it's just a matter of when and what opportunity.
Three points need to be recognized here:
- Strong Consensus.
There are simply too many memes on the chain every day, and very few can stand out. From an investment or speculation perspective, and from the perspective of risk-reward ratio, focusing on those that can stand out is very significant. I am even more extreme; I only focus on the leading players in each track. Just like with aimeme, I said early on that I would only focus on $goat. It may not necessarily yield the highest profits, but understanding it thoroughly yields the best results.
$luce is, of course, unique; you can't find another target or narrative like it.
- A Pullback is Needed.
"Strong consensus" and "a pullback is needed" are two different things, and it is even very difficult for both to happen simultaneously. Therefore, during the rise of $goat, the fud from a16z became a key event, actually providing a good impetus for the subsequent surge!
This time, $luce also has its own impetus, which is from CMC.
CMC included information about the luce token but thoughtfully added a note: emphasizing that this target has no direct relationship with the 25-year relic.
This is quite unique. Does $doge have a direct relationship with dogs themselves? Does $shib? Does $moodeng? Does $neiro?
Adding this note is beneficial for CMC to maintain neutrality and also helps in washing the market. CMC washing the market? It sounds like nonsense. But what is little known is that listing a token on CMC, Dextools, and Dexscreens actually incurs fees, and they are not low; there are a lot of processes to go through.
In addition to being listed, $luce also has posts from Beeple, and this meme promoter's tweets are also charged…
So, in fact, the development of memes is inseparable from the big whales; there isn't that much randomness.
Interestingly, the pullback magnitudes of $goat and $luce are now similar, with the difference being that $goat fell from nearly 400 million back to 200 million, while $luce's market cap is several times lower—however, $goat did wash heavily after opening.
- What Happens Next?
This shouldn't be based on guesses; it still needs to be observed whether it meets expectations. I think we should monitor two things:
- Growth Rate of Addresses
I recommend using https://holderscan.com/
Monitoring shows that it has been over a day since launch, with nearly 15,900 addresses on-chain, the highest among meme coins (the image hasn't been updated yet), and you can directly check real-time data using the on-chain browser.
https://solscan.io/token/CBdCxKo9QavR9hfShgpEBG3zekorAeD7W1jfq2o3pump
The number of addresses can even roughly infer the market cap (considering the narrative, etc.); for example, $goat has 42,000 addresses in 20 days, with a peak market cap of 800 million, while $luce is currently at 50 million.
- On-chain Trading Volume.
The number of addresses shows how many people are buying, while I particularly like to use Moonshot's data for trading volume because it has many newcomers, and each device has one address, making the volume more accurate.
You can check this link:
https://dune.com/jarseed/what-tokens-ppl-trade-on-moonshot
As shown in the image, it can be summarized with Yu Chengdong's famous saying, "Leading by a wide margin!" $goat is twice that, 9 times that of Hippo, and 10 times that of ACT.
People vote with their money, which has considerable reference value.
Of course, in addition to this, I will also observe the heat on social media. I noticed that various secondary creations and discussions are still heating up, and there are still many follow-ups such as official announcements, comic conventions, and anniversary events.
If you ask me, what does this have to do with anything? Then you better answer me a question before you ask:
Trump may be elected, and Trump rises sharply.
Musk supports Trump, and Doge's market cap of over 10 billion rises by 70%.
Even the A-shares "Chuan Da Zhi Sheng" have been hitting the limit up for days, "Chuan Fa Long Mang."
You tell me: what does this have to do with anything?
A few years ago, I didn't understand Doge; I liked the narratives of various VC coins, suffocating the ideals of blockchain. A few years later, I heard that a big shot rushed in with 100 BTC when Doge launched and made back 1,000 BTC. I finally understood one thing: I thought I had gained wisdom, while others gained wealth.
It turns out that was not the case. I not only did not gain wealth but also did not gain wisdom—looking back, there was definitely only one party with true wisdom between those who heavily invested in Dogecoin during the previous bull market and me.
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