Many people are urging for updates; most are confused, and a small portion is just here for the excitement. The 68,500 trend short position I held has completely stopped out at 71,000. During this time, I experienced two instances at 65,000 and 66,000, but I did not exit and waited until yesterday when I stopped out at 71,000. The reason I haven't published an article is not because the hunter is afraid or unwilling to face the situation. If I can't withstand this little setback, I should have left long ago. The reason for not updating is that I don't understand this wave of market movement.

Last Friday, after the flash crash to 66,000, I believed that this round had basically stabilized, and it was fine to continue holding. Although the daily chart showed a W double bottom rebound pattern, including a breakout above the key resistance level of 68,800 on Monday, accelerating upward without a pullback, the breakout pattern was already very clear. However, in my inherent mindset, this kind of rise is still within a high-level large box oscillation. I didn't publish yesterday because I was waiting for the market to retest the key position of the W double bottom, to see whether the market would choose to confirm support and initiate a second rebound or break down again after the retest.

As a result, the market did not retest at all; it chose to form an upward flag pattern and then accelerated upward again. At this point, the only option was to stop out, with no room for maneuver. When reasoning from the outcome back to the process, it is easy to see that the hunter made a significant mistake in this wave of upward movement. Why didn't I stop out when the price broke through the 68,800 key line? Why did I insist on holding until 71,000 to stop out? I'm sorry, it's my problem because I didn't believe there would be no pullback; I didn't believe in this wave of upward movement, which completely conflicted with my thinking.

Looking back at all the trading reviews of the hunter this year, the entire narrative has been bearish. I have been expressing the view that this year is not a bull market; it is the last stage of decline before the bull market starts. Therefore, I initially believed that any accelerated rise in the market would be interpreted as a short-term unexpected fluctuation.

Now I solemnly say that I made a mistake; I missed the entire bull market this year. This year is not the so-called last decline before the bull market starts; it is a bull market.

Seeing this, everyone might think that it's too late for the hunter to admit the mistake. The bull market has already progressed to this point; what is the significance of coming out to admit the mistake?

In fact, conversely, now is the final stage of the bull market, which means that everyone should not expect a big bull market next year.

In the following time, unless there are special positions, I will maintain a cash position until after the election, and I will only update articles for interpretation, not for trading.

Looking back at the current market, we will find several absurd points.

The U.S. stock market remains strong at high levels, the U.S. dollar index has risen against the trend after interest rate cuts, and the world has once again entered an era of interest rate cuts and monetary easing. Large holders are gradually liquidating their positions, while Bitcoin ETFs continue to see inflows.

These statements are very complex to explain, with many conflicting and contradictory points, so let's discuss them in detail.

The U.S. stock market and the dollar, these two difficult brothers, have remained strong at high levels, relying entirely on the false data from the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Labor Department over the past six months to hold up. The reason for this support is simple: the high U.S. stock market is for election votes, and the high dollar is to avoid capital outflows caused by interest rate cuts.

Large holders selling off their spot positions represent the main group in the crypto space not being optimistic about the future of the crypto market. The continuous inflow of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs is more influenced by the rise of the U.S. stock market rather than purely by the crypto market.

Will the dollar collapse? I believe that after the election, the dollar will not collapse either, because after the world enters an era of interest rate cuts and monetary easing, as long as the Federal Reserve does not maintain a 50 basis point cut every time, the dollar will still remain strong. Moreover, if Trump comes to power, he will definitely start shedding burdens (during his last presidential term, he demanded that Japan and South Korea pay for troop costs, withdrew troops from Afghanistan, eased relations with Russia, reduced intervention in the Middle East, withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement, overturned Obamacare, and even considered withdrawing from NATO). In simple terms, Trump's administration executes "America First," reducing the cost of American hegemony and revitalizing the domestic economy.

Will the U.S. stock market collapse? I cannot assert that the U.S. stock market will crash; this issue is more complex and involves more factors. I will only say one thing: the current social division in the U.S. is severe, and the elite groups are also polarized. The emerging elite supports Trump, while the traditional elite still dominates the Democratic Party. Whichever side comes to power will face a reckoning, which means a large-scale capital flight, and the U.S. stock market will definitely enter a phase of decline.

The strength of the dollar is a weight suppressing the bull market, and the decline of the U.S. stock market will not provide upward momentum for the bull market. Therefore, although the hunter has missed the bull market, I also see that this bull market will end early. Now is the final stage of the bull market; even if I enter, I don't know how much profit I can still make, but the risks are gradually increasing as the election approaches. Another obvious reason is that Bitcoin is approaching new highs, while Ethereum is still in a low-level box; this is not the phenomenon of a bull market in full bloom.

Although I am reluctant to mention bearish thoughts again, this is just the current market's lack of strong validation. Future updates will gradually reason and verify, quietly waiting for the end of the bull market, and then returning during the election phase.

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