Preface: Investment carries risks, and operations should be cautious.
Article review takes time, and there may be delays in publication. The article is for reference only, welcome to read!
Article writing time: October 30, 12:51 PM Beijing Time
Market Information
- Hong Kong Legislative Council member Qiu Dagen: The regulatory framework for stablecoins is expected to be submitted to the Legislative Council next month;
- Florida CFO proposes using Bitcoin to diversify the state pension fund;
- The U.S. Treasury's new financial inclusion strategy does not mention cryptocurrencies;
- After the release of U.S. job vacancy data, traders increased bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates;
- BlackRock CEO Larry Fink: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points before the end of 2024;
Market Review
Recently, Bitcoin has shown very strong performance, while other cryptocurrencies have not experienced the same strong rebound, essentially making Bitcoin the standout performer with others following its lead. Last night, Bitcoin peaked around 73,660, close to the historical high of 73,881, but did not reach a new high. This recent rebound has largely followed my previous predictions, with this wave of rebound occurring after a drop to the 65,222 level, resulting in a one-sided increase. I previously mentioned that there would be a pullback, and that we should look to enter long positions when it pulls back to the 65,000 range. You can refer to my earlier article, which aligns with the previous predicted trend. Ethereum also initially experienced a drop, with the low point at 2,380, which is roughly within our expected drop range before rebounding. The continued rise of Bitcoin has also led Ethereum to break out subsequently. With the upcoming elections, Bitcoin remains at a high level. How should we position ourselves for the future? Here’s a brief analysis;
Market Analysis
BTC:
From the daily chart, Bitcoin's recent performance has not provided significant pullback opportunities. The last pullback we predicted to the 65,000 range was the most recent one, and the bulls are very strong. Now, with the end of the month approaching and only a few days until the elections, this kind of non-reversal trend is likely due to institutions jointly pushing up prices. The election alignment is causing Bitcoin to remain high. The probability of Trump being elected is high, but until the results are out, everything is just speculation, and unexpected events can occur. A notable unexpected event in the elections was the 2016 election, where Trump ran against Hillary Clinton. At that time, Hillary had higher support, yet Trump won. The impact on cryptocurrencies was not significant, but it had a considerable effect on precious metals. Due to the unexpected outcome, many people suffered severe losses, and we need to be cautious of such situations. Before the results are announced, everyone should manage their trading risks well, as returns and risks coexist.
Looking at Bitcoin's chart, it has been on a continuous rise, with 8 consecutive green candles on the 4-hour chart and 4 consecutive green candles on the daily chart, indicating strong bullish momentum. As mentioned earlier, influenced by the elections, this impact is not easily discernible from a technical perspective. In trading, any pullback should be seen as a buying opportunity. I believe there will still be a pullback during the day, expected in the range of 68,500-67,000, where we can look to go long. The risk of chasing high prices is relatively large. Those with long positions at the bottom should ensure they have protective measures in place. For those who are flat, you can take advantage of this pullback during the day, using last night's high as a stop-loss point, targeting below 69,000. Once we reach the 68,500-67,000 range, if a shadow is left on the 4-hour chart, we can go long. If you don't want to short, just wait for the pullback to go long. Manage your entry opportunities; for short-term trading, control risks and manage your own profits and losses.
ETH:
From the daily chart, influenced by Bitcoin, Ethereum's price is also gradually rising, but overall it is still oscillating at the bottom. This short-term rise has not reached the short-term high of 2,770, and after approaching the pressure near 2,686, it did not continue to rise. Ethereum's performance is not as strong as Bitcoin's, and the 2,686 pressure level is still valid. There is a greater chance of a pullback during the day for Ethereum, with the expected pullback range being 2,500-2,450. After reaching this range, we can look for a rebound. In trading, you can consider light short positions around the 2,686 pressure level, and after reaching the lower range, adjust your long positions based on the shadow situation. Manage your own entry opportunities; for short-term trading, control risks and manage your own profits and losses.
In summary:
Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have pullback opportunities during the day; be sure to seize them.
The article is time-sensitive; be aware of risks. The above is only personal advice and for reference only!
Follow the WeChat public account "Crypto Lao Zhao" to discuss the market together;
Buddha's saying: "Impermanence" is the norm of life. The "impermanence" mentioned here refers to uncertainty and unpredictability. All the things that cause us pain are due to the excessive pursuit of certainty, such as love, family, work, and friendship. Therefore, investment is about using limited funds that we can bear to amplify infinitely, rather than being defensive everywhere; In short, use limited money that does not affect the quality of life to do things that, if successful, could change fate or improve life. Defense is just not worse than now, while offense can be better than now.
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