Author: Shang2046
The information, opinions, and judgments regarding the market, projects, cryptocurrencies, etc., mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
Before November 6, the U.S. will face a series of key data disclosures, the second interest rate cut meeting of the year, and the U.S. elections. Amidst this series of uncertainties, BTC once again approaches a historical breakthrough point.
Market Summary
This week, BTC opened at 69014.87 and closed at 67943.19 USD, down 1.55% for the week, with a volatility of 6.30% and a decrease in trading volume. The BTC market this week can be understood as a technical confirmation following a significant rebound and the decline of U.S. stocks. Both U.S. stocks and BTC are about to face perhaps the most crucial 10 days in U.S. history.
In the next 10 days, the U.S. will successively announce quarterly U.S. Treasury sales, non-farm employment data, Q3 GDP, and the PCE price index, with November 5 and 6 marking the announcement of the U.S. election results and the second-to-last interest rate meeting of the year.
In the past month, alongside strong U.S. economic data and neutral employment data, U.S. Treasury prices have continued to decline, indicating a further reduction in the market's price-in expectations for interest rate cuts.
If Trump returns to power, mainstream institutions predict a combination of loose fiscal and tight monetary policies, leading to a strong dollar, strong economy, high inflation, and high interest rates in the overall macroeconomic environment, along with greater "unpredictability" due to Trump's personal style.
For BTC, the slowdown in interest rate cuts and a strong dollar are negative factors; high inflation is a favorable factor for its safe-haven property; Trump's and the Republican Party's friendliness towards the crypto world is a long-term positive. The world is not simply linear. Conflicting external factors overall create a short-term neutral and long-term favorable external environment.
In this context, the internal structure of BTC becomes more important. The good news is that the on-chain structure of BTC remains relatively stable, preparing for a sustained market rebound. The market will continue to focus on the performance of U.S. stocks. As the election approaches, U.S. stock performance may experience some volatility, with a focus on the earnings reports of the seven tech giants and the risk appetite of exiting funds after the election results are finalized.
Federal Reserve and Economic Data
Continuing the previous narrative, Federal Reserve officials' statements revolve around "supporting cautious, gradual, and slow interest rate cuts." The Fed seems to want to create a narrative that interest rate cuts will continue, but unlike the expectations formed during the first rate cut, the market will bear a higher CPI next year, and a rise in neutral interest rates is inevitable. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 96.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November.
The U.S. dollar index rose another 0.88% to 104.33, marking a fifth consecutive week of gains, putting continued pressure on various markets.
The sell-off of U.S. Treasuries continues, with prices falling and yields rising, with the 2-year and 10-year yields reaching 4.107% and 4.232%, respectively. London gold rose 0.89%, closing at 2745 USD.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 ended two weeks of gains, falling 2.68% and 0.96%, respectively. The Nasdaq continued its upward trend, achieving a seven-week winning streak, reaching a historical high during the session, but with a gain of only 0.16%. Tesla reported better-than-expected earnings this week, surging 22% the next day. Next week, Apple, Microsoft, Google, and others will release earnings reports, which may be a key factor in whether the Nasdaq continues to rise.
Capital and Supply Analysis
Continuing last week's inflow, this week saw a capital inflow of 827 million, but less than last week's 2.52 billion.
BTC ETFs remain the main focus, with a net inflow of 1 billion USD, while stablecoin channels saw an outflow of 169 million. As of now, U.S. spot ETFs have accumulated a net inflow of 21.5 billion USD, holding a total of 983,600 coins. At the current inflow rate, it is expected to surpass 1 million coins around the U.S. elections. It is worth noting that, according to EMC Labs' monitoring, the average purchase cost of the ETF is 59,500 USD.
Among stablecoins, USDT and USDC have diverged in inflow, with USDT seeing an inflow of 135 million, while USDC continues to see a significant outflow of 300 million. USDC has experienced significant outflows for three consecutive weeks, but the scale of outflow is decreasing. It is currently unclear whether the outflow of the compliant dollar stablecoin is related to the recent strength of the dollar and the reduced expectations for interest rate cuts.
On the supply side, the long-term investor holdings initiated in the past two months have temporarily stopped reducing, with a slight increase in holdings. Correspondingly, short-term investors have also slightly reduced their holdings. However, this is not enough to form a trend. The cost line for short-term investors is 63,500 USD, with a profit of about 5%.
Ecosystem Analysis
The number of new BTC addresses, active addresses, and the scale of value transfer remain low. Transactions have slightly decreased.
In the Ethereum ecosystem, the number of new addresses and active addresses has slightly declined, while transactions have reached a new high (from Base).
Solana continues to maintain strong vitality, with new addresses, active addresses, and transactions all reaching historical highs.
Cycle Indicators
The EMC BTC Cycle on-chain data engine shows that we are still in the relay phase of the bull market acceleration, awaiting further breakthroughs in the market, with an indicator strength of 0.5.
END
EMC Labs was established in April 2023 by cryptocurrency asset investors and data scientists. It focuses on blockchain industry research and crypto secondary market investment, with industry foresight, insights, and data mining as its core competitiveness, aiming to participate in the thriving blockchain industry through research and investment, promoting the benefits of blockchain and crypto assets for humanity.
For more information, please visit: https://www.emc.fund
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
