The correlation between Bitcoin and Trump's odds seems to be weakening, and a breakthrough of $70,000 could trigger new highs.
Author: Deep Tide TechFlow
Market Dynamics Yesterday
Arthur Hayes: China's economic stimulus measures may drive Bitcoin to soar, history may repeat the 5-fold market of 2015
BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes pointed out in his latest blog post that China's economic stimulus measures will inject trillions of dollars into the financial markets and drive up cryptocurrency prices. Data shows that the People's Bank of China has begun purchasing government bonds for the first time since 2007 since August this year, with local government bond holdings increasing from 1.5 trillion yuan to 4.6 trillion yuan.
Hayes analyzes that the People's Bank of China may follow the policy paths of the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan, using balance sheet expansion to address economic downward pressure. He noted that this policy direction may replicate Bitcoin's market performance during the RMB adjustment period in August 2015, when Bitcoin's price rose from $135 to $600 in less than three months.
The report further points out that although current Chinese investors are mainly focused on domestic stock and real estate market opportunities, as the effects of monetary easing gradually become apparent, Bitcoin may become an important allocation choice. Hayes believes that considering China's export surplus remains high and that commodity imports are gradually being settled in yuan, monetary policy adjustments will not significantly impact the yuan exchange rate. Meanwhile, under the U.S. industrial policy orientation, the dollar may continue to show a weak trend.
CATIZEN: Staking CATI and game assets can earn 8.3 million ZRC rewards
According to official news, from October 28 to November 4, players can stake CATI tokens and cat game assets above level 300 in the CATIZEN BOT to participate in a 7-day staking event for ZRC rewards. The CATI token pool accounts for 85% of the total rewards, with the remaining 15% allocated to cat asset stakers. Rewards are settled hourly, with a maximum of $1.5 million in ZRC rewards available.
Previously, CATIZEN officially launched its first Launchpool event, Zircuit (ZRC). Zircuit is an AI-driven zero-knowledge L2 blockchain, EVM-compatible, and backed by Binance Labs. Its total value locked (TVL) currently stands at $1.7 billion.
QCP: The correlation between Bitcoin and Trump's odds seems to be weakening, and a breakthrough of $70,000 could trigger new highs
According to the latest report from QCP Capital, Trump's interview on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast, released a week before the election, has garnered over 32 million views, raising his odds on Polymarket to over 66%. Although cryptocurrencies have been referred to as the "Trump trade," the correlation between Bitcoin and Trump's odds seems to be weakening, as Bitcoin attempts to break through $70,000 and surpass the July high. Bitcoin has only risen 8% this month, below the average of 21%. If spot prices remain at current levels, October will be the fourth worst-performing month for Bitcoin in the past decade.
As the market anticipates next week's election results, it remains to be seen whether Bitcoin can break through $70,000. The report advises caution, as the core PCE data on Thursday and non-farm payroll data on Friday are not expected to show surprises. Currently, the total open interest in Bitcoin perpetual contracts across exchanges has reached $27 billion, close to this year's peak. If Bitcoin breaks through $70,000, it could trigger new highs, especially with more leveraged long positions involved.
Vitalik discusses the future development of Ethereum's The Splurge phase, with EVM upgrades as a core goal
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin released the sixth part of the Ethereum protocol's future development roadmap, titled "The Splurge." This roadmap focuses on EVM improvements, account abstraction, EIP-1559 optimization, and the exploration of advanced cryptographic techniques.
Vitalik pointed out that the primary task for EVM improvements is to introduce the EVM Object Format (EOF), which will be implemented in the next hard fork. EOF will achieve functions such as separating code from data and prohibiting dynamic jumps, laying the groundwork for future upgrades like EVM modular arithmetic extensions (EVM-MAX).
In terms of account abstraction, the roadmap proposes to implement a more secure and convenient account management mechanism at the protocol level, supporting quantum-resistant cryptography, key rotation, and other features. Additionally, Vitalik emphasized the importance of improving the EIP-1559 fee mechanism to optimize the transaction fee economic model and enhance scalability.
USDT has officially launched on the Aptos mainnet
According to official news, native USDT has officially launched on the Aptos mainnet.
DWF Labs co-founder: The bull market cycle began in October, focusing on five asset categories including meme
DWF Labs co-founder Andrei Grachev stated on X: "As of October, it is the first month of the bull market cycle from Q4 to Q1. The market is still very unstable, but the trend is positive. The trends I see are: meme, chains that correctly launch meme platforms (note), yield assets, artificial intelligence, and RWA."
Microsoft's major shareholders BlackRock and Vanguard will vote on Microsoft's proposal to study buying BTC
Microsoft's major shareholders BlackRock (holding 7%) and Vanguard will vote on a shareholder proposal to study purchasing Bitcoin on Monday. The proposal suggests that Microsoft research incorporating Bitcoin into its balance sheet as a strategy to hedge against inflation and other macroeconomic impacts.
Previously, Microsoft explicitly stated in documents submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that the board recommends shareholders vote against the proposal. The company stated it has "carefully considered" the issue and noted: "Past assessments have included Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as options. Given the volatility of cryptocurrency investments, such assets may not meet the company's needs for stable and predictable investments, which is detrimental to ensuring liquidity and operational funds. Microsoft has established a sound corporate financial management and diversification process, and it is unnecessary to publicly evaluate this strategy."
Bitcoin breaks through $70,000 this morning
Bitcoin broke through $70,000 this morning, currently priced at $69,938.00, with a 24-hour increase of 2.12%.
ETH/BTC exchange rate dips below 0.036 this morning, continuing to set the lowest level since 2021
The ETH/BTC exchange rate dipped below 0.036 this morning, currently reported at 0.036719, continuing to set the lowest level since 2021.
Magic Eden: Users are discouraged from trading the test token TestME as it has no intrinsic value
Cross-chain NFT trading platform Magic Eden announced that it will launch the test token TestME on October 30, which is a technical test before the issuance of its governance token ME. Users must complete the claim of the test token through the Magic Eden wallet within a two-day claim window, but users from the UK and the US are excluded. Only users who have interacted with the platform in the past six months can participate in the claim.
Magic Eden emphasized that TestME is only for technical testing and has no intrinsic value, clearly urging users not to engage in speculative trading. This move aims to familiarize users with the token claiming process while providing the platform with an opportunity for technical validation. Magic Eden CEO Jack Lu revealed that the officially issued ME token will serve as an incentive layer to help users onboard, participate in platform development, and receive rewards. This token will particularly focus on the rights of long-term active users, but the specific issuance date has not yet been determined.
Market Dynamics
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