The closing situation of the US stock market early this morning was obviously not very good, with only the Nasdaq rising. The market is clearly cautious and conservative, which has led to insufficient upward momentum for BTC, continuing to maintain a state of fluctuation.
Personally, I think a slight correction in BTC before the election would be good; excessive enthusiasm might lead to too many early exits.
At the same time, the A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, which have been overlooked recently due to a lack of hot topics, have begun to maintain a stable upward trend. The speech from the foreign exchange administration yesterday was actually a hint that foreign capital is gradually flowing in. Additionally, the central bank's two innovative monetary policies have already been implemented. Currently, it seems that the slow increase in both internal and external factors is gradually being executed, and what remains is the need for more internal confidence and optimism.
Just like BTC, a short-term pullback is not necessarily a bad thing. Even in a bull market, the market will also undergo appropriate corrections; otherwise, how can it reach better positions?
Fluctuating around 67,000, be patient and wait.
There isn't much to say about yesterday's market; Bitcoin basically fluctuated around 67,000 for repair. Currently, the resistance at the 68,000 mark is quite strong, and it failed to break through after two attempts yesterday. From the funding fees, the long positions are still higher than the short positions, and the fear and greed index is at 71, still indicating greed. Altcoins are also experiencing more declines than increases.
A few days ago, I started reminding that once BTC hits 69,000, one should be cautious of the pullback risk. This has been reiterated many times. The crypto space is a place where listening to advice can lead to success; in this circle, there are good markets but not necessarily good traders. So, don’t become blindly confident just because the price has risen a bit; it’s all due to luck. Now, after touching 69,500, it immediately pulled back below 67,000!
Currently, after retracting from 69,500, it has received effective support around 66,600 several times. Once this wave of adjustment ends, it is expected to conclude the large-scale wide fluctuation trend.
Although the price of Bitcoin has dropped somewhat, the overall upward trend has not changed.
Bitcoin ETFs continue to see inflows, and the main contributor remains the market leader BlackRock. BlackRock has been buying like crazy recently, with a total inflow of 1.5 billion dollars since the 10th. Currently, BlackRock's IBIT scale has entered the top 2% of all ETFs. It’s worth noting that the average age of these ETFs is over 20 years. The growth rate of Bitcoin spot ETFs can definitely be described as miraculous.
In this era where ETFs absolutely guide coin prices, there is no need to worry about this short-term pullback. The fastest we could see a challenge to the 70,000 mark again this week. Although this position has accumulated quite a few sell orders, the overall trend is such that I firmly believe it will break through.
Spot Market
Bitcoin is at a critical juncture for bulls and bears, and I maintain a cautious attitude towards altcoins.
Bitcoin is slightly down, and altcoins are on the verge of collapse; the overall spot market is in a correction trend. The gaming token sector is experiencing a general rise, with BIGTIME increasing over 29% in a single day, which can be monitored for future developments. However, whether this can be sustained entirely depends on Bitcoin. If it can break through the 70,000 mark, funds will flow from on-chain to CEX, and then altcoins on CEX will experience a wave of prosperity. If it does not break through, then the market on CEX will find it hard to sustain.
Currently, Bitcoin is moving in a narrow range of fluctuations. We need to wait and try not to engage in left-side trading, but rather wait for clear signals to make a new market judgment.
At the same time, we should pay attention to when Ethereum will become strong. Currently, after breaking 2,700, it has been on a downward trend, unlike Bitcoin, which has remained stable; it is still relatively weak.
There are still no signs of any altcoin narratives at the moment. The only point of contention in the market is the election.
At this time, the election has a significant impact on the risk market, especially with less than two weeks until November 5. Currently, Trump's winning probability on Polymarket has soared to 64%, leading Harris by a full 28 percentage points at 36%. It seems that Musk's support for Trump is quite formidable; his cash ability of sending 1 million dollars daily has a remarkable effect.
If Trump wins as expected, it will definitely be a significant positive for the crypto market. I anticipate that before this, we will see a break above 70,000, and at that time, a challenge to 80,000 or even higher is possible. So, the market in the next month or two is likely to be quite good.
Make sure to seize this opportunity that can help us make money!
In the crypto industry, if you want to catch the next bull market opportunity, you need to have a quality circle where everyone can support each other and maintain insight. If you are alone, looking around and finding no one, it is actually very difficult to persist in this industry.
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