On October 21, the OKX Chinese community and Odaily Planet Daily jointly held an AMA event, the theme of the event was "BTC is about to hit a new high, how to optimize your trading strategy?" This Space was hosted by OKX Mercy, with guests including Qin Xiaofeng, deputy editor of Odaily Planet Daily, Michael, Stitch, and Alvin, five well-known figures in the industry. The guests not only shared their views on the current and future market trends but also explained how they use OKX's products for reasonable investment and risk avoidance.

The following is a transcript of the community dialogue, organized by Odaily Planet Daily:

OKX: Hello everyone, I am Mercy from OKX, mainly responsible for KOL and Twitter channel operations. If you have quality client recommendations or any questions about OKX products, feel free to message me. I am honored to host this Space. Next, could each guest introduce themselves?

Qin Xiaofeng: Good evening everyone, I am Qin Xiaofeng, the deputy editor of Odaily Planet Daily. We were established in 2018 and have been in operation for over six years, occupying an important position in the Chinese media of the crypto industry. We have always been committed to providing quality content, thank you for your support.

Michael: Hello everyone, I am Michael, the host of the BTV Chinese channel and CoinChain. Our channel summarizes major projects and dynamics in the crypto, blockchain, and mining sectors every day, aiming to help Web2 users better understand the Web3 world. The channel has been operating for five years as of October 26, thank you for your support, and there will be a special airdrop event for our fifth anniversary.

Stitch: Hello everyone, I am Stitch from CoinWorld. CoinWorld is a professional media outlet in Web3, with rich investment research directions. I hope everyone pays attention to us for more quality information.

Alvin: Hello everyone, I am Alvin from the Shenyin community. Our community has been in the crypto space for four to five years, and I have personally been in this industry for seven to eight years, experiencing multiple bull and bear markets. I consider myself an old investor, mainly participating in short-term trading recently, while holding spot positions for the long term, and I interact with fans in the community regularly.

OKX: Since the Federal Reserve announced interest rate cuts, Bitcoin has rebounded strongly, breaking through $68,000 last week. What do the guests think are the main driving factors in the current market?

Qin Xiaofeng: I believe there are two reasons for Bitcoin's recent rise. First, on a macroeconomic level, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has attracted market attention. Since the interest rate hikes in 2022, Bitcoin has not been able to rise until the unexpected cut of 50 basis points recently, which led to a strong market reaction, and Bitcoin's price approached $69,000. This rate cut injected new liquidity into the market, and investors' concerns about inflation and currency devaluation have increased the demand for risk assets. Second, the launch of ETFs has enhanced the acceptance of cryptocurrencies in traditional markets, with traditional financial institutions like Fidelity and BlackRock starting to invest, driving Bitcoin's rise. Since September, there has been a continuous net inflow into Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, proving that the influx of traditional funds is an important factor driving Bitcoin.

Alvin: I basically agree with Qin's view. The interest rate cuts, along with recent wars and election expectations, have jointly influenced market sentiment. The inflow of ETFs has mainly been net inflows, especially recently absorbing $20 billion in funds, showing institutional interest in the market. In the short term, I am optimistic and believe that market sentiment is positive.

Stitch: I think the main driving factors for the market are still the halving and election sentiment. We expect a significant bull market around mid-next year, but before that, we may experience a strong correction, dropping below $55,000.

Michael: The factors driving Bitcoin's rise vary, but sentiment is key. Currently, over 20% of U.S. cryptocurrency users are involved, and their political influence is growing. Additionally, the increase in stablecoin issuance reflects new funds flowing into the crypto space, with the current stablecoin market cap exceeding $200 billion. The launch of ETFs represents the entry of traditional capital, and Trump's statements further boost market sentiment. Historical data shows that there is no simple correlation between cryptocurrency prices and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes or cuts, so multiple factors need to be considered. Combining technical indicators, there is a potential upward trend, and we predict Bitcoin could reach $120,000 in the future. I hope Trump can become the first U.S. president to support cryptocurrencies.

OKX: In this round of interest rate cuts, can Bitcoin break through its previous high? What is the highest point it can reach?

Michael: Before the fundamentals change completely, my prediction for this bull market is that Bitcoin will reach $150,000, which should be the peak. However, after attending the Nashville Bitcoin conference, I see that Bitcoin's political influence is expanding, so I think this figure could be higher. If Trump wins, the expectation of $150,000 could rise to $200,000 or even $250,000. The Bitcoin market is no longer a simple game; it is a market full of expectations. If traditional capital can enter and ETFs can be launched in various countries, it will be a significant advancement. The follow-up from the Asian market will further drive this bull market, and I believe the bottom should be around $150,000.

Stitch: I have a different view on this bull market. I believe this is a long-term bull market, and we will not see a bull market every three or four years again. The landscape of the crypto space has changed; it is no longer a game for small circles. Therefore, I expect Bitcoin prices to be between $80,000 and $100,000 next year. Looking further ahead, the possibilities of $200,000, $300,000, or even $1 million exist.

Alvin: Currently, Bitcoin's price is close to $70,000, hovering around $68,000 for more than a week. In the short term, the bullish momentum is strong, but surprises are common in the crypto space. I don't pay much attention to technical indicators and prefer to analyze news and sentiment. After a week of brewing, the general sentiment is bullish, which makes me uneasy. Therefore, I am starting to turn bearish. If Bitcoin's price can break through $100,000, I think it might fluctuate between $100,000 and $120,000. However, I am not optimistic in the short to medium term.

Qin Xiaofeng: I remain optimistic about the market. The market is no longer dominated by small circles; the lows of the past few bull markets are continuously rising. Bitcoin and Ethereum are gradually becoming mainstream, and traditional institutions are continuously buying in, especially MicroStrategy, which continues to issue bonds to finance and acquire Bitcoin. With a large influx of funds, I believe Bitcoin is unlikely to crash unless there are flash crashes similar to this year's, like "Mentougou." Despite market fluctuations, the likelihood of prices maintaining above $50,000 is high. I am optimistic that Bitcoin will break through $80,000 this year and may directly surpass $100,000 next year. Even if there are short-term flash crashes, I believe the price will rebound quickly and maintain a high range.

OKX: With BTC approaching historical highs, what key technical or fundamental signals do you think can help investors optimize their trading strategies?

Alvin: I don't rely much on technical indicators, as I believe their weight in the crypto space is relatively low, about 10%. The current market is still in its early stages and is quite wild; compared to mature markets, the reference value of technical indicators is limited. Instead, I focus more on macro news, such as the upcoming elections, short-selling of MicroStrategy, and important news calendars each month, which can reflect market trends and sentiment. I also pay attention to capital inflows, market depth, and liquidation tables, but I won't blindly follow technical indicators.

Michael: K-line indicators indeed reflect historical probabilities. Relying solely on these indicators for trading carries significant risks. We need to understand how technical indicators affect market sentiment and trading behavior, but we must also be aware of the possibility that market makers use these indicators for reverse operations. For example, in the recent pullback, although large institutions like Grayscale were selling Bitcoin, the number of holding addresses was increasing, indicating that large holders were still actively buying. This suggests that there may be unidentified buying power behind the scenes. Therefore, I believe observing changes in Bitcoin holding addresses is an effective way to obtain real market signals.

Stitch: I share similar views with the previous two speakers and generally do not look at K-lines. I mainly analyze the current situation based on the global economic environment, changes in exchanges, and the level of market prosperity. If the number of exchanges is decreasing, it usually means the industry is developing rapidly, and capital is becoming more concentrated. Although the market has not yet reached a truly prosperous stage, I believe there will be more channels for new and old investors to enter this market in the future. As early participants, we are opening up opportunities in this field. In the long run, I believe we are the pioneers of this industry.

Qin Xiaofeng: I will pay attention to the market's leverage, especially the indicators of Coinglass contract positions. These data can reveal the market's profits and potential resistance situations. For example, if the current price moves upward and could lead to a large number of shorts being liquidated, the market is likely to choose that direction. Everyone indeed interprets the same indicators differently, but I think it is essential to understand the background and impact of these data. Whether technical indicators or macro news, they must ultimately be combined with the actual market situation to formulate trading strategies.

OKX: Facing BTC approaching new highs, should investors consider gradually taking profits or continue holding? Will the guests adjust the weight of their investment portfolios when BTC hits new highs?

Michael: I strongly agree with the idea of gradually taking profits. As mentioned earlier, one of the speakers has already started selling, and I think that is a wise choice. I have a leading position in spot trading on OKX, both in scale and number of followers. In terms of trading strategy, we divide it into core positions and short-term operations. The core position is the asset in my cold wallet, which I do not touch at all and will not sell until Bitcoin reaches $1 million. For short-term operations, I will adopt a strategy of selling as the price rises, so as the market goes up, I will appropriately take back some profits, preparing to buy again during future pullbacks. Even if Bitcoin breaks through $70,000, $80,000, or $90,000, my spot holding ratio will gradually increase. In recent trades, our profit rate has also reached a satisfactory 100%. In the short term, I will frequently adjust my positions based on market trends to respond to the ever-changing market.

Alvin: I have a similar view to Michael, but my strategy is slightly different. I mainly operate through contract trading, while spot trading is focused on the medium to long term. Previously, due to the volatility of altcoins, I shifted more funds to spot trading. Over the past six months, the performance of spot trading has left me somewhat helpless, with almost no opportunity to escape. Recently, I have started to gradually take profits, especially when the market rises; regardless of how the market behaves, I will definitely sell part of my holdings. I will never hold blindly, especially when profits reach expectations; I will sell without hesitation. At the same time, when the market hits new highs, I will transfer some funds to flexible financial products for more flexible operations. My flexible financial interest has accumulated over $10,000, providing me with a stable source of income, allowing me to operate again when the market is good.

Qin Xiaofeng: Personally, I believe that at this position, it is still possible to continue holding Bitcoin because I believe Bitcoin will break through its previous high, which is around $74,000. I expect the market may fluctuate several times within this range, which will provide more opportunities for investors. Although the current market is still dominated by Bitcoin, I believe altcoins will also have their performance afterward. For those holding altcoins and currently at a loss, I suggest not to rush to cut losses but to wait for Bitcoin to break through its previous high, at which point the market's focus will shift to altcoins. At that time, investors can seize this wave of increase and consider selling, avoiding the situation of "falling before dawn" by being too eager to stop losses at the current juncture.

Stitch: Regarding investment strategies, our foundation is always based on diversification, adopting a tiered layout. When the market approaches a key point, I will consider making large-scale operations. Liquidity is key in trading, and we must remain sensitive to market fluctuations. As Qin mentioned, the current market trend determines our operational strategy. We need to respond flexibly to maximize profits. Long-term holding and timely adjustments are both reasonable choices. In my view, the essence of trading is to profit from market fluctuations, and the right timing for entry and exit is crucial for profitability. Through reasonable capital allocation and strategy adjustments, we can seize opportunities in an uncertain market.

OKX: The market often experiences greater volatility. What risk management measures can help protect profits? Will the guests utilize—such as leverage tools or derivatives (like options or futures) on OKX to optimize trading strategies?

Mercy: The Simple Earn product that Alvin mentioned is indeed a good choice, offering flexibility for deposits and withdrawals, with relatively attractive annual returns. Some of my friends have achieved good returns using this product. Additionally, OKX has other financial products, such as Dual Currency Earn, which many users with moderate capital are using and have gained considerable returns. There are also strategies like Bottom Fishing and Contract Grid, which are effective tools for dealing with market fluctuations and help everyone better manage investment risks.

Qin Xiaofeng: My current investment operations are divided into two main parts: one is stablecoin financial management, like the Shark Fin product, which generally yields higher than regular financial products; the second is spot and contract trading. I particularly prefer options trading, especially during significant market fluctuations, to gain profits through short-term operations. It is important to note that options carry significant risks, especially with large positions, so I recommend trying with small amounts; otherwise, one may face severe losses. Choosing the right strike price and expiration time is key, and one should avoid blindly chasing highs.

Shenyin-Alvin: Simple Earn is suitable for users seeking stable returns, while other leverage strategies tend to be more speculative. I personally like to use the Martingale strategy but operate grid trading relatively cautiously. Ordinary users can try interval grid strategies to avoid losses caused by emotional fluctuations. The hedging methods of options are effective but increase complexity, which may lead to operational errors; therefore, I prefer swing trading to maintain a clear direction. Recently, I will reduce trading frequency to guard against severe market fluctuations.

CoinWorld Stitch: We mainly focus on structured financial products, which have preset strategies, lower risk coefficients, and significant profit potential. By setting take-profit and stop-loss levels, investment risks can be effectively controlled. Taking WLD as an example, setting reasonable ranges and time periods can achieve better low buying and high selling. Additionally, adopting strategic trading can overcome emotional decision-making and enhance profit stability, especially suitable for investors sensitive to market fluctuations.

Mercy: All financial products are like tools in a toolbox; they can only build ideal investment outcomes when used properly. Before using leverage and derivatives, I recommend that everyone thoroughly understand the principles and applicable scenarios of each product. Only by mastering these tools can one make informed decisions in a volatile market.

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