Five Misconceptions of Ordinary Retail Investors
Obsessing Over ETF Inflows and Outflows.
Many like to watch the fund flows of ETFs and follow the market trends based on these flows. While it is true that ETF fund flows are fundamental factors in market movements, the problem lies in the fact that market movements occur after the inflows and outflows. Can you predict future ETF inflows and outflows in advance? If not, by the time you see the news data, the market has already completed its course.
Hunter's Viewpoint: First, we need to clarify the core elements. Who influences the ETF itself? The ETF affects the cryptocurrency market, but who influences the ETF? The U.S. stock market. Therefore, instead of watching ETF fund flows, it is better to deeply interpret the movements of the U.S. stock market.
Sticking to Technical Indicators.
Basic indicators include KDJ, MACD, and RSI. These indicators can be learned in just three minutes, and content can be found on any search engine. If everyone can see and learn these skills, it is unreasonable to expect to make money from them.
Hunter's Viewpoint: The essence of indicators is to convert market fluctuations that have occurred over a certain period into more understandable content. Therefore, indicators are merely tools to assist us in market observation, not secrets to trading (just as a geometric problem requires a ruler, the thought process is key). The way of trading lies in flexible application. Relying solely on indicators is limited to when the market is in a consolidation phase, as consolidation is merely a repetition of past market movements. When the market enters a consolidation phase, we still need to predict and interpret it.
Fear of Public Opinion and News.
Interest rate cuts and elections are hot topics in the market recently. These topics are not inherently important because bullish individuals will interpret them as positive, while bearish individuals will interpret them as certain declines before or after the event.
Hunter's Viewpoint: The essence of public opinion is to create anxiety and stir the market, especially in the cryptocurrency market, which is filled with gambling elements. Anxiety can lead to extreme emotions—either excessive optimism or excessive fear—both of which can distort one's operations. Interpreting news is a comprehensive discipline that encompasses economics, politics, systems, policies, and strategies. In the short term, it does not enhance one's operations, especially for retail investors who trade short-term. However, those who do not consider the bigger picture are insufficient to strategize in any domain.
Overemphasizing Support and Resistance Levels.
I mentioned long ago that all support and resistance levels are meant to be broken because they essentially represent points of concentrated chips. These areas of concentrated chips are the favorite targets of major funds. By applying enough pressure and continuously increasing positions, they can break through. Retail investors' funds can never compete directly with major players. We can choose to operate based on support and resistance, but once you decide to open a position, do not have a mindset of luck. Whether it is a false break or a real break, the first step of breaking is always to stop-loss and exit.
Hunter's Viewpoint: Improve your trading discipline. Before opening a position, learn to accept your losses. Making money is predetermined; do not obsess over profits and losses. Focus on your responsibilities, trust your judgment, and when mistakes occur, review and reflect on your trading thought process to find the root of the problem.
Seeking Group Security.
The essence of human nature is to seek benefits and avoid harm. Since the days of cave dwellers, humans have been accustomed to tribal groups because individual strength cannot resist wolves and tigers. This is still true today; institutional players are the wolves and tigers of today. Therefore, there is a tendency to huddle together for warmth. However, the most peculiar aspect of the cryptocurrency market is that the communities or groups you seek often have varying levels of trading literacy among their members. As a result, the space is filled with emotional and subjective statements, which not only fail to provide positive feedback but also deepen your fears.
Hunter's Personal Viewpoint: High-quality groups have various invisible barriers that prevent ordinary novice retail investors from entering. If you want to join a high-quality circle, you must first improve your understanding; otherwise, you do not have the right to engage in equal dialogue. This world is very realistic, and the cryptocurrency market is even more so. It is not the amount of capital that determines this, but the level of understanding. Capable individuals have a natural pride; why should they waste their breath on naive individuals? If you are currently losing money, do not think about recovering your losses; first, improve your trading literacy.
I placed the misconceptions at the beginning of the article because I believe these points carry more weight than a single day's market analysis. Establishing a framework is far more valuable than executing a single trade.
Now, let's discuss today's market—
The chart above is self-explanatory. The pin rebound at the 66500 top-bottom conversion point is completely reasonable.
The reasonableness lies in the strong rebound at the technical top-bottom conversion point, which aligns with technical logic. If it were to break down directly and continue to fall, the accumulated bullish sentiment would be wiped out.
The reasonableness that needs to be emphasized: Although the current decline aligns with my expectations, including my trend short position starting to profit, the point I am focusing on conflicts with the route I originally designed. According to what I mentioned earlier about the box consolidation for accumulation and distribution, this consolidation phase should last 7-15 days, followed by a wave of decline.
However, the reality is that when the preliminary consolidation range formed last week, this week it directly pierced through the consolidation and the decline began.
My thought: This decline is unreasonable, but as Hegel said, existence is reasonable. The reason I find it reasonable now is that institutions may have realized that the cost of intervening in the market to control it is too high, and controlling the market allows large players to come in and grab chips, which feels like making clothes for others. Therefore, this accumulation path of directly breaking down is no longer feasible. The early start of the decline should lead to another path, a step-down consolidation, targeting each previous support point, such as 66500, 64800, 63200, 62500, 61700, to make rebounds in batches, then retest and trap long positions before breaking down again.
For today, I will not consider operating long positions because either the support at 66500 will not hold and will rise directly, or it will pause at 66500 before breaking down. The short position can only be taken at 68500. To be honest, I don't even want to take a short position at this level; I feel it is unnecessary. For those wanting to short, you can wait for the next wave of decline to 63200 and then short around 65000. This will completely validate my predictions about the major players, making it pressure-free to execute a confirmed short position.
Regarding the view on whether Bitcoin will surge due to the election—
This speculation is about to explode, especially since Trump's approval rating is currently 37, far ahead of Harris. However, times have changed. Our expectations for Trump's election being favorable for the cryptocurrency market actually stem from his surprising victory over Hillary in 2018, when Bitcoin doubled in a single day.
Rationally considering the environment then and now, Trump's election was filled with drama; Fox News had already printed newspapers announcing Hillary's victory. The current environment, however, shows Trump leading without dramatic conflict. Additionally, the scale of the cryptocurrency market then and now is vastly different, and the participating groups are more complex and diverse. Therefore, even if Trump is elected, I believe the impact on the cryptocurrency market will be minimal. Conversely, if Harris unexpectedly takes office, the dramatic conflict would not lead to a rise but rather a plunge.
A side note: The current U.S. election is a complete joke. Musk openly spends money to buy votes, blatantly selling positions. The history of China serves as a textbook, while the U.S. is merely repeating another historical lesson in the long river of history.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
