Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Nan Zhi (@Assassin_Malvo)

Recently, the meme trading platform Moonshot has gained fame, being praised in multiple posts on the X platform as the "small Binance on-chain," claiming it solves the "last mile" problem of meme tokens and has a strong effect on coin listings. (Note: The author reviewed 9 articles introducing Moonshot and found that 6 of them included referral links, indicating a clear promotional bias.)

So, does Moonshot really have a significant effect on coin listings? If so, is it effective in the short term or does it last long? Odaily will review the data in this article.

Basic Situation Description

• Statistical Object: This article counts 13 tokens that were listed on Moonshot in the past ten days, excluding other tokens that crossed chains to Moonshot, such as NPC, STONKS, etc.

• Statistical Time: The listing time provided by the account "Moonshot Listings" is used as the benchmark, and the token prices are recorded at 5 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours, 24 hours, and current (October 22, 11:00 AM Beijing time) after the listing.

• Special Situation: Since it is impossible to obtain the exact second the listing announcement was made, the starting price is taken as the opening price of the 1-minute candlestick, while other prices, such as the price 5 minutes after the listing, are taken as the closing price of the 1-minute candlestick.

Review of Listing Effects

The statistical results of prices at various time intervals are shown below:

It is evident that there is a significant "listing effect" in the 5 minutes following the announcement, with an average increase of 14.7% in the 5 minutes after the announcement, and the differentiation becomes more pronounced as time extends.

Additionally, if we exclude GOAT, the average increase from 5 minutes to 24 hours is actually increasing, but the cumulative increase since the listing has dropped sharply.

Short-term Listing Effect is Obvious

The 5-minute increase of each token listed on Moonshot is shown in the figure below, arranged from left to right in the order of listing. It can be seen that, except for XD, all other tokens have positive increases after the announcement.

After reviewing the candlestick charts, the author suggests the possibility of an "announcement bot" automatically buying based on Moonshot announcements, especially for several small-cap tokens, where the 1-minute increase is more significant than the 5-minute increase.

The 1-hour increase chart is shown below, where most tokens maintain positive increases in the first hour after the announcement, but differentiation begins to appear, with several tokens' increases starting to approach the 0 axis.

No Listing Effect in the Mid-term

The following chart shows the 4-hour increase, where half of the tokens have erased their gains and continue to decline, while three tokens, Magnet, GOAT, and GNON, which were leaders in their respective phases, continue to rise, but this does not necessarily indicate that Moonshot is the fundamental reason for the increase.

The 24-hour increase chart is shown below, where slop and Shoggoth are included as they were listed for less than 4 hours. It can be seen that the differentiation in token increases is becoming more pronounced, and it can basically be concluded that whether or not a token is listed on Moonshot has no direct relationship with its mid-term increase.

Long-term Will Eventually Go to Zero

The following chart shows the cumulative increase of each token since the listing announcement. GOAT is not included in this chart due to its excessive increase. It can be seen that most tokens are heading towards zero, primarily because the tokens listed on Moonshot are all meme tokens, which struggle to attract long-term attention and establish core consensus amidst the proliferation of similar tokens, making a decline to zero inevitable.

In summary, Moonshot listings often serve only as short-term reference indicators, and whether tokens can continue to rise in the short to medium term is unrelated to it.

Additionally, it was found that Moonshot listings only occur in the evening and early morning Beijing time, primarily focusing on popular tokens with a market cap around ten million. Readers who focus on trading during this time period may want to pay attention to short-term opportunities.

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