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The correction of Bitcoin last night did not meet the ideal expectations. After retracing to around 66666, the subsequent 15-minute level rebound surged above 68000. In fact, for Bitcoin, the 1-hour level correction has not effectively materialized. Currently, we will continue to observe in the short term; there are not many trading opportunities here, and the volatility is small, making it difficult to grasp. It is better to patiently wait for the 1-hour level correction structure to form before participating in long positions.

In the recent trading training course, it was also mentioned that real trading requires filtering out waves. Market conditions that are difficult to understand or have low certainty should be actively eliminated, focusing on clear structures and waves that we can grasp. In the past two days, the movements of altcoins have been relatively clear; those that need to correct will definitely do so. For Bitcoin, it has been relatively strong these days, with an expectation of a 1-hour correction in structure, but instead, it continued to surge. For Ethereum, it was supposed to push above 2688, but it just couldn't, continuing to oscillate in a small range.

So let's wait a bit, don't be too anxious, and observe to see if Bitcoin can form the structure we want by tomorrow night.

BTC Mid to Long Term

Weekly:

At the weekly level, we are currently observing whether a new weekly uptrend starting from 49000 is forming. The first thing to watch is whether the current 4-hour level rebound can break through 70000. If it breaks through, we believe a new weekly uptrend is underway. The second point is if the MACD for Bitcoin's weekly chart shows a golden cross at 8 AM next Monday, then the probability of a weekly uptrend will be very high.

Therefore, at this stage, we should not be overly bearish to prevent a direct surge. At the same time, we should prepare for different market scenarios.

Daily:

At the daily level, the yellow arrow on the left of the above image indicates the already formed down, up, down structure at the daily level, which together constitutes a weekly level correction (73777~49000). Currently, we are in a daily uptrend starting from 49000, which has now reached around 68500. This is a critical period for the daily uptrend. If this daily uptrend continues to surge and breaks through 70000, we can confirm a weekly level rebound, and the upper level of 73777 is likely to be broken, with an overall push towards 90000 or 100000+.

However, if the daily uptrend cannot break through 70000, we may need to expect another daily level correction, with a possibility of retracing back to 50000.

Currently, the daily level structure is about to enter the final confirmation stage, and whether it can break through 70000 will soon be revealed. It is best for everyone to prepare for both scenarios.

4H:

At the 4-hour level, we are currently in a 4-hour uptrend that is leaving a central area, indicated by the blue arrow in the above image. The starting point of this uptrend is 58946 on October 11. Structurally, this 4-hour uptrend should not have ended yet; unless it turns small and ends directly, it should at least go through another 1-hour level correction and a 1-hour level rebound. We will continue to observe the strength of this 4-hour level rebound. If it breaks through 70000, bulls can at least breathe a sigh of relief in the short term and boldly look towards 80000 and beyond, while altcoins can continue to surge. Conversely, if it cannot break through 70000, we need to guard against a downturn.

BTC Short Term

Due to the rapid changes in the market, this article can only make predictions based on the market conditions at the time of publication. Short-term traders should pay attention to the latest market changes, which should only serve as a reference.

1H:

Bitcoin needs to retrace to around 66500 at least to consider that the 1-hour level correction structure has formed. Otherwise, we can only assume that the 1-hour correction has not yet materialized, and the short term may continue to extend upwards. Currently, it is inclined to retrace to around 66500 again, or deeper to around 65000; the specific retracement situation still needs to be observed for strength.

For now, it is recommended to focus on long positions during the retracement until we see effective signals of market termination before considering short positions.

15M:

At the 15-minute level, the trend is still relatively strong, with little retracement strength. Currently, it is undergoing a 15-minute level correction, starting from 68378 in the afternoon. If this 15-minute level correction does not break 67200, the short term may continue to surge to 68500. If it breaks below, we will then consider the possibility of retracing to around 66500 again.

For the short term, there is nothing particularly noteworthy to mention; the structure is not very clear, and short positions should be approached with caution. It is best to wait for another retracement before considering long opportunities. If a suitable retracement is not provided, it is better to remain on the sidelines, as chasing long positions directly is not advisable.

ETH

If Ethereum continues to oscillate, the trend is not very clear, but it could push above 2688 towards 2700. However, if it can retrace to around 2540 again, I believe the trend structure will be more perfect, and the reliability of going long at that time will be higher. The target for this rebound in Ethereum is still around 2830 or higher, so until the upward movement is confirmed, it is recommended to focus on long positions.

Trend Direction

Weekly Level: Direction is down; theoretically, around 49000 is about right, but whether it has ended still needs observation. We are entering the final observation phase, and it is likely to be revealed before the end of the month.

Daily Level: Direction is up; in the short term, we need to continue watching the 67000~70000 range.

4-Hour Level: Direction is up; we are in a 4-hour level rebound, targeting the 66500~70000 range. Whether it can break through 70000 needs further observation.

1-Hour Level: Direction is down; normally, it will provide a retracement, focusing on 66500 or around 65500.

15-Minute Level: Direction is down; first, we need to observe the strength of this 15-minute level decline.

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The article is time-sensitive; please pay attention to risks. The views expressed are personal suggestions and for reference only!

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