Perhaps in the past few days, everyone has found it difficult to grasp the market trends, so I won't discuss individual operations, but just the volatility, which is a bit confusing. Sudden rises and falls are everywhere, and every position is filled with anxiety.

        First, the conclusion: I am firmly bearish. No matter how much criticism I receive, I will remain bearish unless there is a rate cut in November, and unless the market can stabilize above 69,000 after the rate cut; otherwise, I will not change my mindset.

        Those who want to criticize can start now; the following content is basically irrelevant to you.

        Now, let’s discuss three key points about trend markets:

        The large triangle structure of bull and bear cycles has reached its peak, but the specific point has not yet reached the peak value of 69,000. Speculative attempts to short at the peak (shorting at 69,000, and exiting if it breaks 69,000) cannot be executed.

        Large players and whales only make two or three trend moves a year. They have already entered short positions since 68,000 (if you want to challenge why I say this, step back; your small investments cannot reach this level).

        Institutions like Grayscale and BlackRock, whether they are offloading or accumulating, need to forcibly push the market into a range for oscillation, facilitating either offloading or accumulation. (For the principles of offloading and accumulation, refer to previous articles by the Hunter; the principles have been discussed many times).

        Based on the above three points, we can reasonably predict the market's next moves—
        From the three elements mentioned by the Hunter, it can be concluded that the market will oscillate in a high range, with increased volatility, consistently failing to break out of the range, and technical indicators temporarily becoming ineffective, with obvious artificial intervention. Looking back at the market from Monday until now, does it align? Is it a case of raising prices to offload? After raising prices, is there high-range oscillation? Is there a maintenance of balance? Is there increased volatility between long and short positions?

        Therefore, the subsequent market will maintain this range oscillation, roughly between 66,000 and 68,000. A too large range is not good; retail investors cannot trade frequently, which means they cannot help major institutions collect chips. A smaller range leads to more frequent high-frequency trading, and the turnover rate of chips increases. Who ends up with the chips? It just speeds up the collection of chips.

        This wave of raising prices to offload is about what? Offloading at high prices is certainly from bottom long positions. Don’t view it from a retail investor's perspective; what is offloaded are bottom contract long positions and spot.

        After offloading, it’s about accumulating. What chips are being accumulated? Of course, it’s short positions, because if it were accumulating long position chips, I’ve only heard of taking long positions at low levels; I’ve never seen anyone accumulate long position chips at high levels.

        The top of the triangle oscillation in the bull and bear cycle is 69,000; however, as time passes (the oscillation cycle formed by offloading and accumulating over 7-15 days), the top continues to decline. After 7-15 days, the top will become around 68,000, and then the top will repeatedly spike, exerting extreme pressure, including this oscillation cycle, which also puts pressure on the whales. The longer the short positions are held, the higher the funding rate cost, and even if there is a decline later, it will compress profits.

    Conclusion: Just wait; it’s a battle of the titans. If you are shorting at 68,000, you have two options: if you can’t withstand this repeated oscillation pressure in the range, you can exit around 66,500; a little more or less doesn’t matter. If you can withstand this pressure atmosphere, you can try to catch the peak, all the way down to 53,000-50,000. Once the chip collection is complete, the waterfall will come in an instant. Perhaps you want to ask the Hunter, what if you are wrong? If I’m wrong, I will bear the loss myself. If you don’t believe it, you just can’t withstand this atmospheric pressure; you can trade short-term. I have also provided a definite take-profit position. Don’t ask me if I will exit; I will just say this: I can die, but if I die, it will be in a short position. Only if the market can stabilize above 69,000 after the rate cut in November and can break through 73,800 again, will I admit my mistake and change my direction and mindset.

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