As Trump's winning probability increases significantly, market sentiment continues to improve
Trump's winning probability has officially surpassed 60%, achieving a true 64-36 against Harris. With this small change in data, many off-market funds couldn't hold back and rushed in, leading to a continuous inflow into Bitcoin ETFs. In fact, the current coin price has developed a strong tacit understanding with ETF funds; as long as funds are flowing in, the coin price rises, and when funds flow out, the coin price falls. The same applies to Trump's winning probability; as long as the probability is high, the market will surge upwards.
The continuous inflow of BTC spot ETFs in recent days has led to a historic low in CEX Bitcoin reserves, approximately 2.68 million coins. The decline in Bitcoin stock on exchanges indicates that more people are optimistic about the future market. This is all beneficial for driving up prices.
Bitcoin's short-term pullback support is effective; after breaking through resistance, there will be a surge!
The current Bitcoin rally is indeed stable, progressing step by step. First, it surged to 67,000, then pulled back to above 66,000 during the day, and then surged to 68,000, pulling back to above 67,000 during the day. Following this trend, will it surge to 69,000 tonight? If this continues, Bitcoin will soon challenge the 70,000 mark!
Yesterday, Bitcoin pulled back and fell below 67,000, with a low of 66,666 dollars. This dog trader also knows how to pick numbers. After the US stock market opened, it slowly rebounded, then started to decline after midnight, and rose again after the US stock market closed, currently hovering around 68,000 dollars.
BTC Market Development Stage Analysis:
According to wave theory, Bitcoin is currently in the fifth wave of a bull market:
The rise from 9.7 to 9.27 is the first sub-wave of the fifth wave, the pullback from 9.27 to 10.10 is the second sub-wave, and the rise starting from 10.10 belongs to the third sub-wave.
Generally speaking, the third sub-wave is stronger than the first sub-wave, and it is highly likely that the third sub-wave will break through the previous high of 73,777.
What worries me now is that the Bitcoin holding volume is rising too quickly; a rapid increase in leverage may be detrimental to the smooth rise of the market.
Therefore, while being optimistic about the future market, it is also important to manage risks.
From a technical perspective on the daily chart:
The pullbacks in the last two days have not fallen below half of the previous large bullish candle, which is a bullish signal.
Bitcoin's performance over the past two days has been quite steady, calm and steadily upward. At this stage, after gathering strength, it is estimated that the market will reach an all-time high (ATH) in one go, opening up a space for imagination.
On the 4-hour level, the real resistance is at the 70,000 mark. As long as it breaks through and stabilizes above this psychological level, market confidence will be reignited, and then altcoins in CEX will also become wildly active.
Do not be shaken out of your altcoins; the current bleeding and downward trend is clearly aimed at testing the patience of those entering at low leverage. This is also a way to kill both long and short positions.
Altcoin Market:
Now everyone is being drained by Bitcoin; almost all mainstream coins, including ETH, are seeing their exchange rates against Bitcoin decline. Currently, Bitcoin's market share has reached a historic high, which is generally a signal of the early stages of a bull market, indicating that Bitcoin has not finished rising. As Bitcoin continues to surge to new high platforms, its market share will further increase.
I remember that before the bull market took off in 2021, Bitcoin's market share reached about 80%. Of course, at that time, stablecoins had just emerged.
So the subsequent trend of this bull market is likely to be:
Bitcoin drains altcoins, everyone pulls back together, Bitcoin drains again and rises, then everyone pulls back again.
This process will repeat, and there may be off-market funds entering to boost Bitcoin, but of course, this off-market funding will only invest in Bitcoin, while altcoins will only follow the trend emotionally until Bitcoin reaches a plateau.
The market is already filled with confidence that Bitcoin will break new highs, and only then will altcoins have the opportunity to develop independently, forming a true altcoin bull market. I believe this day is not far off.
After the results of the US election on December 16, Bitcoin will have the chance to surge to new highs, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see a 10-fold rise in altcoins next year.
Currently, Bitcoin is facing important resistance and is at a crossroads. It is normal for altcoin funds to seek safety:
This is why we see Bitcoin still strongly consolidating while altcoins are experiencing larger pullbacks.
However, gains and losses come from the same source; do not only focus on the large pullback of altcoins, as their upward movements are also far greater than Bitcoin's.
A reasonable position ratio, advantageous entry points, and a good mindset are the best strategies to cope with pullbacks and volatility.
In the crypto industry, if you want to seize the next bull market opportunity, you need to have a quality community where everyone can support each other and maintain insight. If you are alone, looking around and finding no one, it is actually very difficult to persist in this industry.
If you want to find support or have questions, feel free to join us — WeChat Official Account: You Bi Zhi Qing Nian.
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