The cryptocurrency industry is the same; to make big money, one must have ethics and morals.
Interviewee: Li Guoquan, Professor at Singapore University of Social Sciences
Interview and Article by: Anderson Sima, Foresight News
After a 20-minute speech, Li Guoquan hurried to the interview room. Compared to the young audience below, he is one of the few attendees over seventy. However, in the blockchain field, he is a rare expert scholar.
Li Guoquan is a professor at the Singapore University of Social Sciences and the chairman of the Global Fintech Institute. After earning his PhD from the London School of Economics, he taught at top institutions such as the National University of Singapore. In addition to his academic years in the ivory tower, Professor Li has extensive business experience, from hedge funds to real estate development, always walking alongside entrepreneurs.
His connection to blockchain began with his own children. His youngest son told Li Guoquan at the age of 14 that he could earn Bitcoin by playing video games. Since then, Li Guoquan discovered a brand new field. In 2014, he launched a blockchain course at Singapore Management University (SMU), becoming one of the earliest scholars to research and teach blockchain courses locally. The "Handbook of Digital Currency" he edited in 2015 also won the American Library Association's Outstanding Reference Source Award.
Interestingly, this Singaporean scholar is also very concerned about topics related to China. In his keynote speech at the Shanghai Blockchain Week on October 17, he mentioned his understanding of "new productive forces." He believes that for foreigners, the meaning of new productive forces is the industrial integration of emerging technologies such as AI, blockchain, and new energy.
Li Guoquan during the speech. Source: Wanxiang Blockchain Laboratory
After the speech, Foresight News conducted an exclusive interview with him, and here is the edited full content.
Foresight News: How do you view the current blockchain ecosystem and its future development?
Li Guoquan: In the early days, it was a wild growth phase. Taking ICOs as an example, after new funds entered the blockchain industry, various projects entered a stage of flourishing. In the end, only about 5% or even 1% of the projects may survive, but those that do survive are already very mature.
Bitcoin has been around for over a decade now, and moving forward, it will be difficult to see price increases in the thousands of times. Its valuation methods are now similar to those of traditional enterprises. It is no longer a wild growth phase but is thriving in a well-managed "garden." As for Ethereum, you can see its transaction fees have dropped significantly, and its user base is growing. Competition among public chains like Solana is also becoming increasingly fierce. It can be said that the development of blockchain in the first 15 years may be completely different from the next 15 years.
Future projects will definitely not be limited to just "issuing tokens." New tracks like RWA and DePIN will combine broader traditional economies with blockchain technology, which has great prospects. However, there is an important criterion: new projects must consider what benefits they bring to the national economy and whether they will promote compliance, legality, safety, common prosperity, and sustainable development. If your Web3 project makes significant contributions in these areas, the next ten years will belong to you.
Foresight News: How do you view the strict regulatory attitude of mainland China towards cryptocurrency-related fields?
Li Guoquan: From my personal experience in Singapore, about ten years ago, I predicted that the government would definitely accept Bitcoin, and the results have proven that our view at the time was correct. Now, if I were to predict, I believe Web3 will also be something the Chinese government will utilize in the future, and I am very confident about this.
Every new financial product goes through a developmental stage. The Chinese government chose to suppress chaos like "speculation" during the wild growth phase, so I fully support everything the Chinese regulators are doing. Once everyone starts to operate legally and in compliance, and international regulatory mechanisms are established, cryptocurrency will become an important channel for global finance and a legitimate investment target, and I believe China will not be an exception.
Before regulation, there must be an understanding of the industry, but the blockchain industry was born relatively late, which makes it challenging for regulation. However, you can now see the BIS (Bank for International Settlements) getting involved in this field, and central banks and commercial banks around the world are starting to engage, with financial institutions also beginning to embrace it. So I predict that China will eventually embrace blockchain technology and cryptocurrency.
Additionally, Hong Kong shows that China is willing to encourage the development of cryptocurrency, but it must be controllable in parts and develop steadily under a system that can be supervised. Therefore, Hong Kong serves as an experimental field. I think everything Hong Kong is doing is very good, including the newly established compliant exchanges, which are growing much faster than before.
Foresight News: In contrast, what are the characteristics of Singapore's approach to cryptocurrency?
Li Guoquan: In the blockchain field, Singapore plays the role of a pioneer. The Singapore market is not larger than that of the United States. When the U.S. establishes various regulatory frameworks for cryptocurrency, they may move faster than Singapore.
Singapore's advantage lies in its ability to act as a bridge between China and the United States. In the great power game, both sides are wary of each other and cannot trust each other's technology and networks. Thus, Singapore has its own positioning, advocating for a unified public chain that has the opportunity to connect China and the United States. This is different from Hong Kong, which has a large hinterland, so I am very optimistic about Hong Kong.
Foresight News: Do you think the U.S. presidential election in November will have an impact on cryptocurrency?
Li Guoquan: I believe that regardless of who wins the U.S. election, it will not have a significant impact on the overall trend; the cryptocurrency industry will continue to rise. However, if Trump comes back, the speed may increase significantly. Based on years of experience, the timing, location, and people are all aligned now, and cryptocurrency has become an important tool in the compliant financial system. At the same time, it has also become a political tool that can bring in a large number of votes, thus becoming a tool in the great power competition.
Foresight News: What are your thoughts on the development of AI technology? How is it related to blockchain?
Li Guoquan: First of all, the compliance costs of AI will be very high, much higher than those of cryptocurrency. The characteristic of AI is winner-takes-all, and in terms of investment scale, only governments and large institutions can afford it; individuals find it hard to participate. One feature of AI is that it can improve efficiency, but it does not create a large number of jobs and wealth. If AI is maliciously used, the consequences can be very serious. Therefore, we need to develop AI technology responsibly. The series of cryptographic and smart contract technologies represented by blockchain can help AI in data storage, data distribution, and data ownership, providing a safeguard for humanity. This technological integration is an inevitable trend for the future.
Foresight News: You have always emphasized that technological development should be "people-centered" and promote "common prosperity," but the cryptocurrency industry also follows the Matthew effect. How do you view this?
Li Guoquan: Because pioneers bear greater risks, they receive higher returns. From the perspective of traditional compliant financial products, the annualized returns of these products are mostly around 10-20%. Once it is higher, it means huge risks. Now, cryptocurrency investments have been included in the compliance system in many countries, which means that the current investment returns may be within 30%.
Every new industry will go through a wild growth phase, with many newly rich individuals; many pioneers make a fortune without clarity, which is to be expected because they take on huge risks. As compliance institutions enter and the industry matures, creating a large number of jobs, high returns will gradually disappear.
If you want to be at the forefront, you must bravely try some risky new things, but at the same time, you need to bring a gray area into compliance, guiding these pioneers onto the right path.
Additionally, I have another viewpoint: you are not in opposition to traditional industries, trying to take a piece of their cake; it is difficult to achieve explosive growth this way. You must create a new industry. Originally, no one knew how to make money from this; if you have a new technology to earn this money, it is equivalent to creating a new flavor of cake for others to share with you. I think this is something young people should consider.
At the same time, you need to understand what the market's game rules are. To develop safely in a gray area, you must have a good ethical and moral perspective. You can only engage in gray business within a sustainable framework, and when you see risks, you know how to pull back.
I believe that if you want to make big money, you must have ethics and morals. Without ethics and morals, you will quickly be left behind and eliminated; there are many examples of this in the industry. If you lack ethics and morals, you are likely to become a scam group in the future.
So do not pursue money; let money pursue you. Everything you do should meet market demand. Although you may not see returns in the early stages, the market demand will eventually come to you.
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