Original author: Haotian (X: @tmel0211)
As the entire Ethereum layer2 ecosystem finds itself in a predicament, @VitalikButerin has either explicitly or implicitly discussed several potential developments in his article looking ahead to the future of Ethereum Surge. The mission to contract layer2 standards and boundaries, enriching and integrating the layer2 ecosystem, seems urgent. Next, I will share my understanding:
1) Rollup Centric Roadmap replaces sharding.
Layer2 protocols have evolved from state channels in 2015 to Plasma in 2017, and finally to Rollup in 2019. The rise of Rollup as the mainstream solution is a result of the continuous evolution of the Ethereum ecosystem, leading to changes in the originally planned Sharding strategy.
Clearly, the powerful paths of Rollup and Sharding have fully merged, which means that the Sharding plan has been shelved and the Rollup Centric roadmap has become the definitive scaling strategy.
The central idea of sharding is to allow nodes to only verify and store a small portion of transactions rather than all transactions, which aligns with Rollup's approach of processing most transactions in an off-chain environment and only presenting verifiable results on-chain. By choosing the large Rollup strategy, there is no longer a need to advance sharding.
2) The Rollup roadmap addresses the triple dilemma better than other alt-layer1s.
The expansion of public blockchain networks faces the impossible triangle of decentralization, scalability, and security. Some high-performance alt-layer1 chains claim to solve this triple dilemma through hardware and software engineering optimizations, but this often sacrifices the decentralization characteristics of client nodes.
Although Vitalik did not explicitly state it, he was implicitly referring to Solana. Despite Solana recently launching a new client, Firedancer, it will take a considerable amount of time to achieve the level of decentralization seen in Ethereum client nodes.
Vitalik believes that the next phase of the Rollup strategy, combining data availability sampling (DAS) and SNARKs, can effectively address the impossible triangle problem. The reasoning is that clients only need to download a small amount of data and perform minimal calculations to verify the accuracy of transaction states, allowing transactions under Rollup to theoretically scale infinitely, while the mainnet only needs to sample and verify Blob data.
This may be the true advantage of Rollup Centric compared to other alt-layer1 public chains, achieving high scalability without sacrificing the impossible triangle problem. The ultimate goal is to achieve over 100,000 TPS for L1+L2 while ensuring that each slot's data processing capacity reaches 16M.
3) The Rollup standards and specifications urgently need to be contracted; to secure the internal first before addressing external issues?
Currently, the Ethereum layer2 ecosystem faces significant criticism, to the extent that layer2 is seen as hindering Ethereum's delayed explosion. From a secondary market perspective, it is not hard to understand that the market cap growth of ETH itself has been sluggish, and it also has to carry a bunch of high-market-cap VC "dumping coins" like $ARB, $OP, $STRK, $ZK? The relationship between Rollup layer2 and Ethereum is worth discussing: is it "nurturing" or "sucking blood"?
In fact, to resolve this dilemma, Vitalik has already signaled: redefine layer2. 1. Layer2 must fully inherit the trustless, open, and censorship-resistant characteristics of the Ethereum mainnet. In simple terms, it must rely on Ethereum's DA capabilities, and the security level must reach stage 1 (with Trustless fraud proof guarantees).
Previously, strategies like Stack stacking, Rollup As A Service, modular third-party DA, and shared Sequencer provided great freedom, diversity, and extensibility to the layer2 market. Before and after the Cancun upgrade, the layer2 market was flourishing, with expectations of explosive growth in layer2 driving the prosperity of the application market, thereby "taxing" back to enhance the value growth of the Ethereum main chain.
However, contrary to expectations, the boundary-less DA and low-cost launch thresholds have led to a surge of layer2 projects, which not only failed to contribute back but instead relied on airdrops and token issuance expectations to share part of the growth expectations of the Ethereum ecosystem.
Thus, Vitalik has called for a contraction of the Rollup boundaries, which will allow the central strategy of layer2 Rollup Centric to truly form a synergy. The expected business models under the commercial stacking of @CelestiaOrg's third-party DA and @alt_layer's RaaS undoubtedly pose a significant downside. For most layer2 projects in the market, fully embracing the Ethereum mainnet and planning for differentiated growth expectations is the optimal solution.
As the first to practice decentralized Sequencer, the emerging layer2 adept at differentiated development, @MetisL2 has also developed fraud proofs and migrated Ethereum Blob to align with Ethereum's strategy. Recently, layer2 small-cap tokens led by $METIS have experienced a wave of growth, perhaps indirectly confirming this point.
4) After the Cancun upgrade, the imaginative space for the Ethereum ecosystem is still vast.
Previously, many discussed that the substantial technical upgrades benefiting Ethereum had ended after the Cancun upgrade, and the only path forward was through the expansion of the application ecosystem? Not necessarily.
1. The debate between layer2 OP vs ZK has not yet determined a winner. Initially, the ZK Endgame theory made the ZK direction for layer2 seem politically correct and created a buzz, but Ethereum's later developments in data availability sampling, data compression technology, and SNARKs may "blur" the technical route differences between OP and ZK;
2. The importance of layer2 cross-chain interoperability has become prominent. The Rollup Centric strategy emphasizes that the Ethereum ecosystem is a whole. Previously, layer2 projects developed their infrastructure based on technical advantages, leading to an oversupply of general layer2s while specific layer2s went unnoticed. Now that layer2 has become homogenized at the infrastructure level, whoever can excel in interoperability and holistic ecosystem integration is likely to emerge victorious in the next phase of layer2 competition;
3. The layer2 architecture should not be limited to pure Rollup. Vitalik previously discussed the possibility of ZK+Plasma, which may seem like a rallying cry for Vitalik's entrepreneurship, but what he actually wants to express is that layer2 should frame itself based on application types. Rollup, Plasma, and Validium all have specific preferred application directions. For example, Plasma can ensure that the ledger state is effectively tracked and recorded in payment scenarios, with a better security launch mechanism suitable for payment applications. A mixed architecture of Plasma/Rollup can achieve better scalability and privacy, with theoretical TPS reaching around 260,000.
4. Amplifying the performance of the Ethereum mainnet. I previously discussed that the short-term development of Rollup could significantly optimize the performance of the Ethereum mainnet to highlight its position. For instance, further improving the efficiency of client software, reducing gas costs for specific opcodes and precompiles, multi-dimensional gas pricing, EVM-MAX proposals, etc. These are not limited to Surge, and there will be greater optimizations in the future Splurge phase.
That's all.
In summary, the evolution of Ethereum layer2 from grassroots exploration to gradually forming a unified Rollup route, then to the flourishing and competitive RaaS, and now returning to strategic contraction and reshuffling, aligns with several major evolutionary stages that a complete commercial ecosystem must undergo. Therefore, the past pessimism and concerns are quite normal, and it is far from the time to conclude that Ethereum is failing.
Keep Optimistic, Bullish Ethereum!
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