Preface: Investment carries risks, and operations should be cautious.
Article review takes time, and there may be delays in publication. The article is for reference only, welcome to read!
Article writing time: October 17, 15:27 Beijing time
Market Information
- Bitcoin demand has surged amid bullish catalysts, potentially driving the price of Bitcoin to $70,000;
- The U.S. spot BTC ETF has seen net inflows for four consecutive trading days, totaling $1.64 billion;
- KGA Co-founder: Believes Trump has the advantage in the election, with real impacts starting in December;
- Chairman of Duquesne Family Office: If Trump returns to the White House, the Federal Reserve may become more hawkish;
- U.S. Congressman: If Trump wins in November, preparations will be made to reorganize existing regulatory agencies;
Market Review
Recently, Bitcoin bulls have been very strong, rebounding sharply after testing the $60,000 support without looking back, with the highest rebound point reaching $68,424. In a previous article, we mentioned paying attention to the $60,000 support level, and the subsequent rebound looked towards the $63,000 area. The rebound did occur, but it was too high. After oscillating around the 200-day moving average near $63,500 for two days, it broke out and is currently still at a high level. Ethereum's rebound this time is also quite strong, with the highest rebound point at $2,688. Previously, we said that breaking $2,485 would be good, but the market is always unpredictable. This rebound directly reached the resistance near $2,640 and is currently operating below that resistance. In the short term, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are facing pressure. After profits from long positions, short positions may have been swept. Currently, the price is expected to have a slight pullback, and after the pullback, it may start to rebound again;
Market Analysis
BTC:
From the daily chart, after Bitcoin broke below $60,000, it did not continue to decline. It formed a long lower shadow at the $60,000 support level, and the subsequent rebound surged directly to above $68,000 without giving a chance for a pullback. This rebound has been nearly 10,000 points. Combined with market news, the U.S. election event has been quite hot recently, with the showdown between Trump and Harris. Currently, Trump's election rate is slightly higher, but a black swan event may also occur. Before the results come out, we will not make arbitrary guesses, but this rise is somewhat related to the election. As the month is coming to an end and the election is approaching, this rebound is likely to be driven by expectations. About a week before the election, there should be a pullback. This rebound has many trapped short positions below, and institutions will not easily let these trapped positions break even. The market is not expected to have a significant decline in the next few days. This rebound in Bitcoin is expected to move towards $70,000, but there will be opportunities for pullbacks during the day. The expected pullback point is around $65,000. In short-term trading, one can first take a short position for profit and then plan for long positions. Pursuing long positions at high levels without pullback opportunities carries significant risks. Recommended entry point for shorts can be around $67,500, with previous highs as stop-loss, targeting the $65,000 range. Subsequently, based on market trends, one can plan for long positions and seize entry opportunities; in short-term trading, control risks and manage profits and losses independently;
ETH:
From the daily chart, Ethereum's performance is not as strong as Bitcoin's. This rebound followed Bitcoin's strength, but it did not break through the short-term high of $2,728. After reaching the resistance near $2,640, it formed a shooting star, and the daily line also showed a doji. From the candlestick pattern, there is certain pressure above Ethereum, and a pullback is needed here. In trading, one can focus on shorting around the $2,640 resistance, targeting the $2,450-$2,390 range. Currently, Bitcoin is stronger, while Ethereum's overall trend is still in a low-level oscillation. We will not look for breakouts but will focus on oscillation strategies. Seize entry opportunities independently; in short-term trading, control risks and manage profits and losses independently;
In summary:
Both Bitcoin and Ethereum face short-term pressure. In trading, one can first take short positions and then plan for long positions after a decline;
The article is time-sensitive, be aware of risks, and the above is only personal advice for reference!
Follow the public account Crypto Lao Zhao to discuss the market together;
Buddha's words: "Impermanence" is the norm of life. The "impermanence" mentioned here refers to uncertainty and unpredictability. All the things that cause us pain are due to the excessive pursuit of certainty, such as love, family, work, and friendship. Therefore, investment is based on the foundation of being able to retreat and attack, using limited funds that can be tolerated to amplify infinitely, rather than being defensive everywhere; In short, use limited money that does not affect the quality of life to do things that, once successful, may change fate or improve life. Defense is just not worse than now, while offense can be better than now.
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