Reference SourceBankless
Author｜Golem（@web3_golem）
In October, Bitcoin's price opened with a downward trend, dropping to around $59,000 at its lowest. However, recently, Bitcoin's price has shown a good rebound, reaching a high of around $68,422 yesterday. So, with the market trend becoming positive, how will altcoins perform in the subsequent months of October?
The Bankless analysis team has predicted the price trends of 10 altcoins around October, with 5 tokens predicted to rise and 5 to fall. This article will summarize the predictions and reasons from the Bankless analyst team, as well as provide a summary of their previous token predictions that expired in October for readers' reference.
October Prediction Win Rate: 70%
Excluding neutral tokens, there are 10 tokens predicted by the Bankless analysis team that expired in October, with the following results:
Predicted to rise but fell: Instadapp (INST) down 43%;
Predicted to fall but rose: Maple Finance (MPL) up 43.56%, BNB Chain (BNB) up 2%;
Predicted to fall and actually fell: Ondo Finance (ONDO) down 25.28%, Livepeer (LPT) down 27%, ETH Name Service (ENS) down 36.71%, Celestia (TIA) down 1%, Polkadot (DOT) down 36.46%, ether.fi (ETHFI) down 40%, Worldcoin (WLD) down 26.07%.
The most significant discrepancies were seen with Instadapp (INST) and Maple Finance (MPL), while ether.fi (ETHFI) had a higher predicted return. Nevertheless, the overall win rate for the tokens predicted to expire in October remains at 70%.
Bullish Tokens
dYdX (DYDX)
Sector: DeFi
Reason: Launch of a U.S. election prediction market may increase DYDX staking yields
Prediction Period: October 16, 2024, to January 16, 2025
Price at Prediction: $0.96
Price Performance to Date: Up 1.28%
Since the Bankless analyst team turned bearish on dYdX on July 23 due to concerns over declining usage metrics, DYDX has fallen 26%. However, a bullish catalyst has now emerged, as dYdX recently launched the "TRUMPWIN-USD" trading market, allowing traders to go long or short on whether Trump will be elected President of the United States with leverage of up to 20 times.
While the extreme volatility of prediction markets may necessitate forced deleveraging or closing winning positions to prevent market bankruptcies before event settlements, it is undeniable that the extreme leverage offered by these contracts will attract a large number of speculators. Although this product has just been launched, the demand for presidential prediction markets has surged, doubling the monthly data for the competitive prediction market Polymarket; this trend is almost certain to accelerate as the U.S. election approaches.
The yield for DYDX stakers is positively correlated with the growing demand for the dYdX perpetual contract market. Given that the leveraged U.S. presidential prediction market could be an attractive product, staking yields may increase in the coming weeks, thereby driving up the token price.
Jupiter (JUP)
Sector: DeFi
Reason: Grayscale is optimistic, and the product has a high market fit
Prediction Period: October 15, 2024, to January 15, 2025
Price at Prediction: $0.88
Price Performance to Date: Down 3.66%
On October 10, Grayscale added JUP to its "assets under consideration" list, marking the token as a potential candidate for future investment products.
Jupiter is a full-service exchange deployed on Solana. Its core product is a DEX aggregator that automatically routes users' trades to pools with the best execution prices. Although Jupiter currently does not charge swap fees and its swap smart contracts do hold assets, the exchange processes hundreds of millions of dollars in spot token swaps daily and could easily monetize its order flow at some point in the future.
Despite Jupiter's fully diluted valuation being $9 billion, which is 15% higher than Uniswap, this valuation difference may be due to Jupiter having complementary products, such as extremely high-leverage perpetual futures (with yields up to 28% on $700 million in liquidity) and a strong token launch platform.
Thala (THL)
Sector: DeFi
Reason: Leading protocol in the Aptos ecosystem, can benefit from ecosystem development dividends
Prediction Period: October 7, 2024, to January 7, 2025
Price at Prediction: $0.51
Price Performance to Date: Up 6.14%
Although Aptos has not received attention due to poor performance throughout 2024, there is hope that APT could become the next beneficiary of L1 prosperity, while the ecosystem has performed healthily since mid-September.
Thala (THL) is a comprehensive DeFi application that offers token swaps, liquid staking, and over-collateralized stablecoins, ranking as the largest investable application and the third-largest protocol by TVL on the Aptos network.
Thala is built using Move, a programming language unique to networks like Aptos and Sui. Although there are competitors on both chains, the protocol's market share is not encroached upon by mature EVM alternatives like Uniswap. Additionally, technically, Thala can also be deployed on Move-based networks (such as Movement).
Aptos (APT)
Sector: L1
Reason: Strong fundamentals
Prediction Period: October 4, 2024, to January 4, 2025
Price at Prediction: $9.13
Price Performance to Date: Up 9.97%
Since the beginning of 2023, Aptos has underperformed, but the token has rebounded after hitting a low in August, doubling in value over the two months leading up to this analysis.
Although Aptos's use cases are not yet mature and its valuation is significantly higher than Ethereum's, the on-chain fundamentals of Aptos appear to be positive, with a steady increase in the number of daily active addresses and TVL metrics reaching historical highs.
Aptos's theoretical maximum throughput is 160,000 transactions per second (TPS), making it one of the fastest blockchains in the crypto space, a feature that makes it well-suited for high-performance applications required in emerging crypto fields like DePIN.
Axelar (AXL)
Sector: Infrastructure
Reason: Launch of new cross-chain features, leveraging the recent L1 network boom
Prediction Period: October 3, 2024, to January 3, 2025
Price at Prediction: $0.65
Price Performance to Date: Up 23.15%
Axelar's Mobius Development Stack (MDS) was launched on October 3, utilizing the AXL token as the latest cross-chain interoperability standard, providing a set of open tools and protocols that its developers claim will "unlock a whole new design space across chains and bring new dimensions to building in Web3."
With Axelar's Interchain Amplifier, new bridging connections between chains can be easily created at the smart contract level without significant protocol changes, allowing the new interoperability standard to natively support Flow, Hedera, Solana, Stacks, Stellar, Sui, and XRP Ledger.
While the AXL token retains utility under MDS and can be bonded as collateral by network validators to process transactions, the structure also allows for re-validation using ETH or BTC collateral to enhance security assurances.
The Bankless analyst team is bullish on AXL's token performance, believing that this interoperability token is well-positioned to ride the recent wave of strong performance from L1 tokens, which may accelerate network exploration and bridging activities.
Bearish Tokens
Uniswap (UNI)
Sector: DeFi
Reason: Still needs bridging, swap experience may be poor
Prediction Period: October 10, 2024, to January 10, 2025
Price at Prediction: $8.35
Price Performance to Date: Down 9.1%
On October 10, Uniswap launched Unichain, a universal rollup built on the OP Stack, aimed at becoming a liquidity hub for cryptocurrencies and addressing the inevitable liquidity fragmentation issues arising from Ethereum's rollup-centric roadmap.
The network intends to leverage a trusted execution environment (TEE) protected by UNI validators, who provide fast pre-confirmations and earn network fees for their services, while reducing user transaction wait times from 1 second to 200-250 milliseconds, and implementing the long-awaited use of the UNI token as a network gas consumption token.
However, the Unichain exchange still requires time-consuming bridging transactions, although the native interoperability of the OP Stack is expected to significantly reduce wait times and transaction costs for bridging within the OP Stack.
The Bankless analyst team is bearish on UNI's price because, despite Unichain proposing a grand vision for an interoperable future and empowering UNI, the need for bridging fundamentally creates a worse swap experience. On-chain traders, who are sensitive to profits, are unlikely to default to using Unichain for poorer execution and longer wait times, making it hard to envision any outcomes from this experiment other than increased liquidity fragmentation and deteriorating trade execution.
Wormhole (W)
Sector: Infrastructure
Reason: New airdrop incentives are not very attractive, declining trading volume, and the market may struggle to absorb future token unlocks
Prediction Period: October 2, 2024, to January 2, 2025
Price at Prediction: $0.36
Price Performance to Date: Down 17.48%
In August, the Bankless analyst team turned bearish on the W token's performance. It remains uncertain whether Wormhole's new airdrop activities will incentivize people to adopt the token, while the market may struggle to absorb future token supply.
Although the token price rose throughout the month alongside the overall crypto market, Wormhole's trading volume plummeted by 36% (to $255 million) from August to September, and the token price saw a significant increase shortly after BlackRock's blockchain infrastructure partner Securitize announced it would utilize Wormhole for its tokenized asset products.
At the same time, the South Korean exchange Upbit listed the W trading pair on October 2, causing the token price to immediately surge by 30%, but the price trend began to reverse shortly after trading went live.
The Bankless analyst team continues to be bearish on W in October, expressing skepticism about the benefits of future Wormhole airdrop incentive programs, doubting whether high-profile partnership announcements can reverse the decline in trading volume, and believing that the FOMO triggered by Upbit's listing will be short-lived.
EigenLayer (EIGEN)
Sector: Infrastructure
Reason: The token is overvalued, and the actual yield from AVS may be poor
Prediction Period: October 1, 2024, to January 1, 2025
Price at Prediction: $4.00
Price Performance to Date: Down 16%
At the time of analysis, EIGEN's trading market cap was $740 million, with a fully diluted valuation close to $6.7 billion. Although restaking is touted as the future of crypto economic security, EigenLayer's high valuation may struggle to justify itself in the coming months.
From a fundamental perspective, EigenLayer and its applications will inevitably be valued for their revenue-generating capabilities; while these figures cannot be determined without real-time AVS, the profit prospects for the entire EigenLayer ecosystem are also questionable.
Even in the most optimistic scenarios, leading AVS may only generate a few percentage points of actual yield. Crypto investors will need to absorb the token inflation rate used to subsidize low returns, which is an inherently unsustainable balance, especially for new services with little or no real-time integration.
ether.fi (ETHFI)
Sector: LST
Reason: The token is overvalued, and the market may struggle to absorb subsequent large-scale explanations
Prediction Period: September 30, 2024, to December 30, 2024
Price at Prediction: $1.82
Price Performance to Date: Down 8.24%
In July, the Bankless analyst team turned bearish on ETHFI, predicting that TVL outflows would be used to chase other airdrop opportunities and allocate more tokens, which would weaken the growth hopes supporting ether.fi's high valuation and lead to a decline in token price.
However, ether.fi did not lose market share and TVL to competitors; instead, it successfully increased its deposits by creating novel restaking tokens and ongoing airdrop programs. Nevertheless, its permanent token issuance policy has had a significant negative impact on price. The ETHFI team's and investors' unlock schedule begins on March 17 next year, an event that will certainly attract attention from many holders in 2025. While the airdrop incentives have proven successful in retaining deposits, ether.fi's fully diluted valuation is higher than Lido's.
The Bankless analyst team remains bearish on ETHFI's price, believing that considering the token's extreme overvaluation relative to LDO, the market will struggle to absorb its ongoing airdrop issuance.
ether.fi (ETHFI)
Sector: LST
Reason: The token is overvalued, and the market may struggle to absorb subsequent large-scale explanations
Prediction Period: September 30, 2024, to December 30, 2024
Price at Prediction: $1.82
Price Performance to Date: Down 8.24%
In July, the Bankless analyst team turned bearish on ETHFI, predicting that TVL outflows would be used to chase other airdrop opportunities and allocate more tokens, which would weaken the growth hopes supporting ether.fi's high valuation and lead to a decline in token price.
However, ether.fi did not lose market share and TVL to competitors; instead, it successfully increased its deposits by creating novel restaking tokens and ongoing airdrop programs. Nevertheless, its permanent token issuance policy has had a significant negative impact on price. The ETHFI team's and investors' unlock schedule begins on March 17 next year, an event that will certainly attract attention from many holders in 2025. While the airdrop incentives have proven successful in retaining deposits, ether.fi's fully diluted valuation is higher than Lido's.
The Bankless analyst team remains bearish on ETHFI's price, believing that considering the token's extreme overvaluation relative to LDO, the market will struggle to absorb its ongoing airdrop issuance.
Solana (SOL)
Sector: L1
Reason: Ecosystem stagnation, performance may lag behind other L1s
Prediction Period: September 26, 2024, to December 26, 2024
Price at Prediction: $156.15
Price Performance to Date: Down 1.84%
On June 21, the Bankless analyst team began to turn bearish on SOL, predicting that the fading fantasy of the ecosystem's meme coins would lead to poor performance in the coming months.
In hindsight, the timing of this prediction was not ideal, as it was issued just days before SOL rebounded from its range low. Despite multiple retests, SOL has remained at that range low in the following months, during which the ecosystem has shown clear indifference.
Since the overall cryptocurrency market peaked in March, Solana's TVL has remained stagnant. Network fee revenue has been on a downward trend, and although its native token has outperformed mature meme tokens (i.e., BONK and WIF) in recent months, this is also a warning sign indicating that the golden age of the ecosystem may be over. This is a concerning outlook for a token that relies on strong investor performance.
The Bankless analyst team maintains a bearish view on SOL, believing that the relative attractiveness of other L1s will increase in the foreseeable future, thereby undermining investor confidence in the Solana narrative.
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