The underperformance of A-shares and events such as the North Korea-South Korea conflict have directly led to a rapid influx of funds into the cryptocurrency market. There's been a lot of analysis on A-shares over the past couple of days. South Korea is a major player in the crypto space, with many people participating in cryptocurrency trading. Therefore, once border conflicts arise, they tend to think about purchasing cryptocurrencies as soon as possible.
Is the bull coming? Various positive factors are stacking up, and Bitcoin is surging!
Currently, BTC is around 66,000. The longer it consolidates around 60,000, the stronger the upward momentum will be. A new bullish trend is already upon us; shorting is like being a dog!
Bitcoin continues its rebound from yesterday, but the price still hasn't stabilized above the resistance level of 65,000. This position will see supply emerge and will test the strength of demand again. Bitcoin must stabilize above 65,000 to have a chance to break through and attack the 68,000–70,000 resistance zone. If it can achieve this breakthrough, the probability of starting a new upward trend will be very high.
In 2016 and 2020, there were significant surges three weeks before the elections. With 24 days until the election, the current market is speculating on the elections.
Looking back at the two U.S. elections in 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin began to rebound three weeks before the elections, rising from 600 dollars and 1100 dollars, respectively. Now, there are exactly three weeks left until the election on November 5. Let's see if the market can replicate the scripts of the previous two bull markets.
The total trading volume of the spot BTC ETF has exceeded 2.1 billion dollars; BlackRock's spot BTC ETF saw trading volume exceed 1.6 billion dollars today.
The increase in trading volume also proves that it's not just the Asian market; Europe and the U.S. markets are actively participating in the crypto landscape.
Is it a pump and dump or a bull return?
This recent surge back above 66,000 is quite stable and indeed represents a recent high point.
Today, there hasn't been a situation where the price surged and then retraced like before; it seems that just a bit of acceleration is needed to break through the previous 68,000 resistance.
As for whether BTC is a false breakout, we really can't draw a conclusion right now:
The key is to look at the turnover situation at high levels. If there is a surge in trading volume at high levels, it indicates a significant increase in turnover, and if the price doesn't drop too much, it suggests stabilization, which is conducive to further increases. Conversely, if it cannot handle the selling pressure turnover, it indicates that the market is not stable enough, and the breakout may be "false."
If there are some extreme pullbacks in the short term, I wouldn't be surprised at all:
The long liquidity accumulated over the past two days is too much… At the same price of 66,000, compared to the total futures open interest on September 29, there is now an additional 2.1 billion dollars in futures open interest.
A big bullish candle has ignited the market, and BTC has returned to the 66,000 level, reaching the height of the end of September, but this market is different from before.
Altcoins have not returned to the same level as Bitcoin at the end of September, but the market is very hot, with many calling for a bull market. Everyone's perception is different; this rapid surge has not been considered, and I have always maintained a cautious attitude towards the market. ETH has also not returned to the 2700 level at the end of September, and most altcoins follow the lead of ETH, so many altcoins have not returned to that height; they just followed the rise yesterday, and many altcoins are still at the bottom.
Clarifying thoughts and analyzing calmly:
Any short-term pullback spikes are opportunities for everyone to get on board, following the trend. However, it is important to note that Bitcoin made a false breakout at the previous high of 66,500, so it is not advisable to chase long positions right now, as there is still capital fleeing from the previous high.
Although Bitcoin has risen to around 66,000, it is still important to maintain an objective and rational view of the market. Just because it has returned to 66,000 does not mean we are in a bull market or anything like that. Chasing highs after a rise is not advisable; even if under pressure, I would not choose to chase the rise and look for a bull market; it’s better to wait and see.
In terms of altcoins, influenced by Bitcoin's strong rise, the altcoin market has seen a general increase, but whether this rise can continue still depends on Bitcoin's movements.
The overall direction is still judged to be building a bottom and emerging from it to start an upward trend. However, after a rapid surge, there needs to be room for adjustment; the market has not yet entered a frenzy stage, and chasing highs should be done cautiously. More operations should focus on low-position layouts.
In the crypto industry, if you want to seize the next wave of bull market opportunities, you need to have a quality circle. Everyone can band together for warmth and maintain insight. If you are alone, looking around and finding no one, it is actually very difficult to persist in this industry.
If you want to band together for warmth or have doubts, feel free to join us—WeChat Official Account: You Bi Zhi Qing Nian.
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