Facing reality is something we all must do, both for myself and for the market.
Over the weekend, the short position at 63200 didn't close, and the profit at 62000 didn't close either. While some were mocking the retail investors in the group, on Monday, the stop loss at 63500 was triggered. I didn't post anything yesterday, and many were waiting to criticize, but they didn't get the chance. Today, I leave the comment section open for you to vent; I know you've been holding back for too long, so here's a place for you to express your emotions.
The reason I didn't update yesterday wasn't because I was avoiding facing the situation; otherwise, I would have continued to dodge today. I could have just waited ten days or half a month to come back. The real reason is that yesterday's surge severely deviated from my market predictions. For such extreme market conditions, I don't make excuses or shift blame. No matter the reason or justification, I was wrong, I hit my stop loss, and I lost money. These are facts, and I accept them. I didn't update because my thoughts weren't clear, and I couldn't find the reason for the surge. Since the market has already surged, that is an objective fact.
Let me first tell you what I was doing yesterday. I spent the entire day and night helping those who were shorting at 64800-65000 to lock in their positions, reduce their risk, and persuading those who wanted to short yesterday not to enter the market.
My intuitive feeling about yesterday's market was that it was absurd and unbelievable. After the surge, I kept searching for reasons. This reason isn't for shifting blame; those familiar with me know I don't care about taking the blame. I just want to understand the meaning and purpose of this surge to deduce the subsequent market movements.
Today, I will try to share my understanding of this wave of market movement and propose a logical line, which we will gradually verify through today's and tomorrow's market.
Logically, it doesn't make sense. On Friday, the market dipped to 59000 and quickly reversed. Over the weekend, it tested the 62500 support and continued to accelerate upward, forming a standard bullish pattern from a technical perspective, and it was a strong upward movement. In Friday's article, I concluded that it was a retail investor explosion, and I identified the explosion point as the short position at 61700.
So, after verifying the market over the weekend based on my deductions, I confirmed that there were no short positions in the market, or they were extremely scarce. That's why the hunters opened shorts when they continuously pierced the 63200 level. This position has already incurred losses, so I won't discuss it further. The key point is that there were no short positions over the weekend. We all know that the market maintains a range of fluctuations within cycles. This fluctuation essentially means that both bulls and bears are in a state of balance, wrestling with each other. When one side exhausts itself or suddenly gains support, this delicate balance will be broken, triggering a one-sided market movement, and then entering a new cycle of fluctuations, repeating itself. Specifically, in terms of market behavior, it means long periods of fluctuation with occasional one-sided movements.
Conclusion: After confirming that there were no short positions in the weekend market, the balance between bulls and bears was broken in the short term. Based on the outcome, if there are no short positions left, the bulls have won, and the market should continue to move in one direction until the long positions are liquidated on a large scale, and short positions re-enter the market, at which point the market will enter a phase of fluctuation.
In reality, the market at 63200 has been unable to achieve further one-sided upward movement. Retail investors, under continuous piercing pressure at 63200, have lost their motivation to enter the market as the pressure level has failed. The market started to decline from 63200 and then accelerated down to 62000, only with the main force coming in to cover short positions.
As we move to Monday, the market dropped to 62000, returning to the concentrated bullish position of the market. The area between 62500-62000 is where the entire market wants to enter long positions. According to my understanding, the main force entering short positions is aimed at these retracing long positions. The result was a violent surge.
Who is behind this surge? It wasn't the main force but rather its opposite. In the past, when hunters did analysis, they would first find a target. Today, the main force is targeting which group: retail investors, technical analysts, trend followers, or theoretical modelers? In simple terms, it's a one-on-one fight, unwilling to engage in a group battle; otherwise, they would harm themselves while trying to defeat the enemy.
From the analysis above, we can see that the area between 62500-62000 on Monday is where retail investors, technical analysts, trend followers, and theoretical modelers all entered the market. This position provided an expectation for an upward movement, offered upward space, and allowed ample time for entry, giving rational entry points.
Looking purely at the market, the main force has played itself into a corner, facing challenges from the entire market, with both sides having almost no difference in size, and even the market's size being larger.
From the main force's perspective: With so many people standing at 62000-62500 fighting against me, can I deliver a fatal blow? If not, should I face a war of attrition? This kind of consumption is also a challenge to my funds. If I run out of backup, and my funding supply is insufficient, I could be defeated. Rationally, I should let you all enter the market first. As Sun Tzu's Art of War says, avoid the strong and attack the weak; temporarily retreat, and let everyone in the market pull up the price and charge forward.
Since it's a charge, the formation will become chaotic. Some will slack off, some won't keep up, some will run fast, and some will run slow.
Retail investors: Long positions, taking profits at the continuously pierced position of 63200 (the short-term rule of 500 points profit) stop.
Technical analysts: Long positions, taking profits at the 64200 position (a strong resistance level from a technical perspective).
Trend followers and theorists: Continue to look bullish at 68000-70000, the bull market has begun, and continue to chase the main force. It is advisable to chase the retreating enemy, not to seek fame and learn from the tyrant.
In the current market, various groups have already scattered. Regardless of whether the market goes up or down in the future, they will be defeated one by one.
Moreover, yesterday's surge had another particularly important reason: South Korea. South Korea is an undeniable force in the cryptocurrency space. Time is limited, so I will discuss this tomorrow. For now, think about these three points.
- The new round of confrontation between China and the U.S., one side attracting capital into China, the other side preventing capital from fleeing the U.S.
- Who is the driving force behind the tense situation on the peninsula over the weekend?
- Who was the joint sword B island exercise on Monday aimed at, Taiwan or the U.S.?
Now, regarding today's market and the reasoning for the future, I will try not to operate today and tomorrow, focusing on verification, unless you have my contact information and can try according to my thoughts.
From a technical perspective: The weekly bull-bear cycle is in a triangular convergence entering the top breakout phase (top at 69000), which has not yet broken through. This position's breakthrough would completely ignite the bull market sentiment.
The hunter's thought: Even if this position breaks through, I won't chase it. The current timing is unreasonable; the Federal Reserve's interest rate hasn't dropped below 3%, and liquidity hasn't been released. The news of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in November hasn't landed yet. Breaking this position prematurely is highly suspicious. Although this position is approaching, it hasn't actually broken, nor has it provided an opportunity to gamble on the top.
On the daily chart: Today should form an M-top, meaning there will be one more upward movement today. Unless it breaks below 64800, it will be an M-top. This top is the previous high of 66700. Whether it breaks or not doesn't matter; you can short at the previous high point, and if it breaks the previous high, exit, with a stop loss of about 50-100 points. If it falls back to this position, short again, with a stop loss of 500 points.
Reason: Even if it breaks 66700, it won't reach the top of 69000 for a top gamble, and no one will dare to short. However, the M double top downward pattern will be completely formed, fulfilling the conditions for a reversal downward.
The subsequent market rhythm: On Wednesday, a strong rebound from 63200-63500, but the close remains at this position. On Thursday, a strong downward acceleration, continuously breaking 63200, 62500, and 61700. On Friday, it approaches the 60000 integer mark again, even breaking it.
Starting next week, the market will experience a waterfall decline, rushing to push the price down to the area below 53000-50000 before the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in November. This target is temporarily uncertain, and the specific performance may involve playing with people through the interest rate cut node. There is still a long time ahead, so I won't elaborate on it today.
In conclusion, I just want to tell everyone reading the hunter's article: if you don't understand, that's okay. Don't argue about right or wrong. Regardless of how you and I profit or lose, it's each of our own matters. Right or wrong is not important; what matters is being able to clarify your own thoughts. In simple terms, my article is for those who sincerely ponder the market, not for those without understanding. It's not meant for you to just follow the points and act. Even if you follow the points, you could lose 300 points. The most terrifying thing is to see the points and go all in, completely ignoring stop losses and not thinking at all. My stop loss points do not represent that the thought process is already wrong. So while you are celebrating, I congratulate you on making money, and you can freely criticize my actions. However, can you ultimately hold onto the money earned by luck?
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
