The road is long and has no ending

Good evening everyone, I am trader Gege. This year, the frequency of my article updates has decreased again; it used to be daily, then weekly, and now it has become monthly. The articles now focus more on trends, and when I have enough time later, I will update short-term trends as well, aiming for daily updates.

Long-term trends are different from short-term ones. Short-term generally refers to intraday trading, focusing more on small-level fluctuations, such as hourly, 15-minute, or even 5-minute levels. Each completed trade counts as one, requiring more time and energy. Trends rely on waiting; there may only be 3-5 major trend opportunities in a year, or even fewer. Grabbing one or two can surpass the majority.

Engaging in trend trading is about subtraction: reducing the frequency of trades and the time spent watching the market. Once a position is established, one must endure the fluctuations of the candlesticks, forget about price movements, and patiently wait. Regardless of whether it’s a trend or short-term, the most important aspect of the trading market is the confrontation of human nature. Even if one follows others' suggested strategies, the results can vary greatly.

First, one must recognize oneself; second, see the reality clearly; and finally, concentrate superior forces to conquer. Knowing what kind of person you are is essential to establish a corresponding trading system. Others' trading systems or "holy grails" may not suit you; everyone is different. Whether following someone else's ideas or using your own trading system, execution is also crucial. It’s easy to talk but hard to act; trading is a long journey of practice.

After the opening remarks, let’s return to the market situation of Bitcoin. When I updated the article on September 17, I mentioned that the weekly level was not too bad for bulls, referring to the 64000-65000 range. By the end of the month, the price reached above 66000. My overall thinking hasn’t changed. After the drop at the beginning of this month, on the 11th, it briefly broke below the 60000 mark to induce shorts. Currently, the market has pulled back to around 63000. Whether on the monthly or weekly level, the view remains the same as the last update: the structure is not very bad for bulls. As long as the weekly level does not break below the 60-day moving average, any pullback that stops falling is an opportunity to go long.

From the candlestick perspective, after reaching a historical high in March this year, the market touched above 70000 five times in April, May, June, and July. Although the highs have been declining, I still believe that if the market tests above 70000 again, the probability of breaking the previous high is very high. This is because whether it’s support or resistance, the same level being tested multiple times increases the likelihood of a breakout; this is how I understand it.

Regarding the prediction of future market trends, since it is a prediction, it involves digging channels ahead of the market, which requires trial and error. Trying to catch a trend is unavoidable. If this wave peaks around the 66000 level, the market will continue to maintain a high-level range-bound movement. As long as the weekly 60-day moving average is not broken, any pullback near that position is an excellent opportunity to build long positions. If there is support in the 60000-58000 range and the rebound can test above 70000, then reaching a new historical high will be within reach.

I previously mentioned the risk of washing out spot players in the market. Many spot players are fully invested, and some swing traders are heavily loaded; washing them out is a common tactic of the market makers. I want to say that washing out spot players does not necessarily require a decline to be completed. It’s similar to buying a house in our country: the more prices rise, the more people buy, and the more they fall, the more people hesitate. FOMO, crazy rises, or hitting historical highs can also wash out spot players.

First, the current market has been in a high-level range-bound movement for six months, which is wearing down people's confidence and making them doubt their positions. Since entering the market is for profit, a long period without returns may lead people to consider switching to other markets, such as gold or other financial products. Secondly, ending the range and starting a strong rise to break previous highs can fill the positions of players who are not fully invested, even adding leverage to fully invest in spot, prompting fully invested players to seek other funds to enter the market, dreaming of crossing classes and then experiencing a market that washes out spot players. This is not impossible. This is purely my personal opinion for reference.

Therefore, whether in spot or contracts, it is essential to manage risk well. Otherwise, when the real turning point arrives, having no bullets in your gun is a very sad situation. For Bitcoin, the short-term focus is on the 61000-60000 range, followed by the 58000 level. Above, we should first pay attention to the situation around 64000-65000. The big cycle is the weekly MA60; as long as this level is not lost, the overall trend structure will not deteriorate. Today’s article does not provide specific operational advice; it offers a range because it emphasizes momentum over price. In 2022, a fan said I was a flight attendant; at that time, I was bearish. Since the end of September last year, I have turned bullish, following the trend in one direction, which can sometimes be easier. With less than two months left this year, there may be significant changes in the market. Will October bring big surprises? We shall see.

The suggestions are for reference only. Please manage your risk when entering the market, and assess your profit and stop-loss space accordingly. Specific strategies should be consulted in real-time.

Alright, friends, we’ll see you next time. I wish everyone continued success in the crypto world! Today’s article does not provide specific short-term trend points; more real-time suggestions are sent internally. This concludes today’s brief update. For more real-time suggestions, please find Gege.

Written by: I am trader Gege, a friend willing to accompany you in your resurgence.

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