The macro factors influencing cryptocurrency performance are shifting from policy to the U.S. elections.

Bitcoin saw a slight increase last night, and from the overall market response, everyone is looking forward to a Trump victory in the November U.S. elections. If Trump wins, accompanied by a 25 basis point rate cut, it will create an explosive force, directly leading to a surge in the cryptocurrency market.

The U.S. presidential election has entered a heated phase, but the latest poll data is ringing alarm bells for the Democratic Party!

A U.S. journalist recently revealed that, according to the latest data, insiders from both the Democratic and Republican parties believe that Trump's chances of winning are significantly increasing, while Harris may lose in six key swing states.

Regarding the uncertainty of the election, news that emerged yesterday indicates: due to the impact of a super strong hurricane and Trump's recent intensive campaign activities, Harris's recent activities have been quite conservative, suggesting that the market is beginning to prepare for a potential Trump victory.

If Trump does not win in November, it won't be considered a bearish signal, just a lack of surprises. The Democratic Party is also relatively friendly towards cryptocurrency, as everyone knows that crypto is an innovative industry, and all Americans hope that innovation first occurs in the U.S.

What I want to say is that regardless of who wins, it will ultimately not affect the progress and trend of the bull market; it’s just a matter of when and the cycle of the explosion.

Back to the market situation

After finding support at the lower edge on the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has started to push upwards, and in the short term, it is still testing the resistance level around 63,000.

Recently, the fear index has been around 30 for bottom fishing, and each time there has been a decent increase.

MicroStrategy's stock rose by 12 points yesterday, following news that the U.S. government is cashing in on an annual increase of 20,000 BTC, driving Bitcoin to rebound strongly, moving in a one-sided manner with hardly any pullbacks in 15 minutes, keeping the bears down, and the BTC weekly chart is also showing an upward wedge.

As mentioned in yesterday's article: it is essential to remain cautious now; be bearish in the short term but do not short.

The Bitcoin ETF has finally ended a three-day period of capital outflow.

Recently, not only has Bitcoin's price been fluctuating, but the capital inflow into ETFs has also shown similar patterns. This is likely, as I mentioned before, that the effect of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts has worn off. With the arrival of the election market, many funds are starting to withdraw, waiting for the election results to be finalized before making plans. At this stage, liquidity is too poor, and without capital flow, everything is just talk.

Lastly, I want to share my thoughts.

Many brothers have asked me why I don't post entry and exit points every day like other bloggers, whether to be bullish or bearish. It's simple; many people look at the traffic, and it’s quite high.

I want to ask my brothers, what is the point of blindly pursuing short-term bullish or bearish positions for Bitcoin?

Trading does not require you to have bullish or bearish points every day, or to know where to enter and exit. If you only look at the points without understanding the underlying concepts, you won't make money at the same positions.

The so-called bullish and bearish points can be given with closed eyes; there can be many positions in a day. If you get it right and catch a big fluctuation, does that make you amazing?

We must understand that coming to the crypto market is for profit, not to contribute transaction fees or do charity!

Before a big rise, I tell you to bottom fish — then because the market is too cold, you don’t believe it — then I will post a bunch of articles trying to persuade you — then everyone still doesn’t believe it — then it really rises — then everyone outside is shouting that the bull is coming — then you believe it and want to enter — this is already the time to escape the top.

In the crypto industry, if you want to seize the next bull market opportunity, you need to have a quality circle where everyone can huddle together for warmth and maintain insight. If you are alone, looking around and finding no one, it is actually very difficult to persist in this industry.

If you want to huddle for warmth or have doubts, feel free to join us — WeChat Official Account: You Bi Zhi Qing Nian.

Thank you for reading. If you like it, please give a thumbs up and follow us. See you next time!

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