This market is rendering profits every day, and hunters are particularly eager to find some in-depth ideas in the market, regardless of whether they conflict with my views. At least well-reasoned arguments are a good reference for me to further improve my trading. However, as soon as I open the topic of the cryptocurrency circle, it’s all the same: various ways to make money. Good, I know you are amazing, you are all great. So please tell me what to do now. Has anyone noticed that when you see some analysis guru bragging about profits, and then you ask him what to do next, he only tells you that his trades are continuously profitable but cannot tell you what to do currently or how to judge the future.
The market's hype is monotonous, and soulful analysis is hard to find. So today, on the weekend, the hunter tells you that when trading is getting better, losses are also an art!
Replaying starts—
On Friday, the hunter pointed out the key point at the beginning of the article: the market has entered a new phase, and retail investors have become the main target for the big players. He warned everyone not to follow blindly and to treat it with caution. Since he reminded everyone to be cautious, it indicates that the market will become particularly difficult to trade.
On Friday, it was pointed out that technical trend traders faced three rounds of large-scale stop-loss liquidations, so yesterday's market only had the main players and retail investors participating. Combining the retail investors' tendency to look for support and resistance to trade, it was clearly stated that support is at 60,000 and resistance at 61,700. As long as these two positions are reached, it’s a definite explosion.
Actual market fluctuations: Bitcoin quickly dipped from 59,000 and rebounded back to 60,000, slowly rising to 60,800-61,000 and continuing to consolidate.
At this position, the hunter shorted at 61,000, and so did our group. Why did I choose to trade at this indecisive position? The result was also a stop-loss. Friends who are familiar with the hunter know that I like to reflect on my mistakes, but for this trade, I just had a bit of bad luck. Even if the King of Heaven came today, I wouldn’t admit my mistake; I only acknowledge that this trade was due to bad luck and had nothing to do with my skills.
Reason: In Friday's article, I publicly pointed out that 60,000 and 61,700 are positions that could bury retail investors. I must have been out of my mind to compete with retail investors at these two positions. For the hunter, these are all death traps. My short at 61,000 was like a Taoist who would rather die than let a friend die because during the consolidation phase at 61,000, neither side of retail investors dared to enter due to the lack of suitable positions. For yesterday's market, 61,000 was a vacuum area; shorts were waiting for a rebound to 61,700, and longs were waiting for a pullback to 60,000. The main players had no pressure to push or dump at 61,000 since there were no opponents. The goal was to explode retail investors; a drop to 60,000 was to prepare to blow up long positions, and a rise to 61,700 was to prepare to blow up short positions.
Conclusion: So for me, it started with the intention of following the main players to explode retail investors. My only problem was that my luck was too bad. The reality was just a rise to blow up short positions without dropping to 60,000 to blow up long positions. The actual actions were the same method. If it had dropped to 60,000, today’s market would have been a reverse military boxing set. And how did I get everyone to short? Shorting at 61,000, as long as it goes above 61,500, it must fall back, making retail investors believe that the 61,700 resistance is effective. When the market falls back, I will exit the short at 61,000 with a break-even or small loss. Brothers, you can review Friday's market; wasn’t there a pullback at 61,500? I’ll tell you, stop-loss is also an art! I can lose, but I will only pay the big players 200 or 300 points at most; I won’t pay a penny more. Want to cut my flesh? Wait for the next big player.
Continuing to discuss Friday's subsequent market, Bitcoin rebounded to 61,700 in the evening. Pay attention to the details: is 61,700 a one-sided breakthrough and rise, or is it slowly rising without falling at the hourly chart level (15-minute K and 5-minute K are more obvious)? Is it a slow grind that only accelerated in the early morning?
In Friday's article, the hunter particularly warned everyone that the characteristics of retail investors are small funds, poor skills, and a heavy sense of luck. Based on this characteristic, the market does not need to quickly break support and resistance; slow rises and falls are more likely to amplify the retail investors' sense of luck, slowly trapping them step by step, and finally accelerating to take everything back. So on Friday night, wasn’t there a slow rise at 61,700, with small pullbacks in between? Didn’t you short retail investors feel that it couldn’t rise anymore, so you held on, not stopping losses at 62,000, not stopping losses at 62,500? Once it went above 62,500, the market couldn’t come down, and you were trapped, then you placed your hopes on the 63,200 resistance, and then in the second half of the night, a quick rise to 63,400 took out the last stop-loss or even liquidated you?
Am I being a Monday morning quarterback? Didn’t I tell you the rhythm of this wave in my article on Friday afternoon? Did you execute it? Have I made any wrong judgments about the market trends in the past two months? The answer is right in front of you; if you fail the open-book exam, am I wrong to criticize you?
For those still holding short positions, come to me, I’ll help you out—
Continuing to follow the retail investors to watch today’s market, I won’t talk about technical analysis today, as I explained before, the technical analysts are all gone and won’t be back for now.
In the early morning, it surged to 63,400, breaking through the 63,200 resistance. Most of the retail investors' short positions at 61,700 have been wiped out, leaving only a few hanging on. Now that a one-sided upward structure has emerged, continuously breaking through resistance, it’s strong enough, right? So what should retail investors do now? The 61,700 resistance has become support, right? Pulling back to 62,000-62,300 to go long is reasonable, right?
From the retail investors' perspective: 61,700 has become a support position, and the market is in a strong upward trend. Pulling back to 62,000-62,300 can be a long position, with a stop-loss at 61,700. The market will surge on Monday, and I will make money again.
Based on the retail investors' perspective, the weekend's market can be easily inferred. If today goes up to 63,200 again, we will short at the position of falling back to 63,200, with a stop-loss at 63,500. If today maintains consolidation, tomorrow we will short at 62,500, with a stop-loss at 62,800. Don’t ask me about profits, don’t ask me about targets; I only mention a ratio of 1:10.
Views on the subsequent market trend—
Based on the overall fluctuations of the market in the previous period, I would like to share a new perspective.
On the night of October 3, Bitcoin briefly broke the bottom of 60,000, sweeping up the chasing shorts, but for retail investors bottom-fishing at 60,000, 59,800 wouldn’t trigger a stop-loss. Conclusion: Retail investors made money.
On the night of October 7, Bitcoin briefly broke the top of 64,200, sweeping up the chasing longs, but for retail investors top-fishing at 64,200, 64,400 wouldn’t trigger a stop-loss. Conclusion: Retail investors made money.
On October 9, Bitcoin fluctuated between 62,000-62,500 throughout the day. For retail investors, high selling and low buying, frantically pulling back to 62,000 to take profits of 500 points. The first time it broke 61,700 without accelerating, retail investors had a small loss on one trade, and in the second half of the night, a one-sided decline began, and retail investors were already asleep, having no place to lose. Conclusion: Retail investors made money.
On October 10, the market maintained a consolidation at 61,200 all day. Long positions didn’t get a pullback to 60,000, and short positions didn’t get a rebound to 61,700. The CPI data hadn’t been released, and retail investors were on standby all day. After the CPI was released, the market hit a low of 60,800, and retail investors still couldn’t enter long positions. In the second half of the night, it directly waterfall-dropped to 60,000 without any support for a rebound, and retail investors couldn’t enter regardless of time or price. Conclusion: Retail investors neither made money nor lost.
On October 11, the position that retail investors had been longing for at 61,700 finally arrived, leading to a surge.
If you carefully review the positions mentioned by the hunter, do you have a feeling that while the main players are targeting technical analysts, they are also protecting retail investors very well, nurturing them to grow strong? What is the purpose of nurturing retail investors? To serve them up on a platter; the main players also need to eat.
On Friday, retail investors' short positions were wiped out, and now with a one-sided rise, unless the weekend continues to rise without looking back, as long as the weekend doesn’t rise, as long as the weekend dares to pull back, the short retail investors have already been wiped out. Isn’t it now the turn of the long retail investors?
So will the market rise or fall next? From a higher perspective, the previous week continuously exploded technical analysts, mainly focusing on blowing up short positions. Now, the explosion of retail investors also starts with blowing up short positions. When the market has no short positions from both technical analysts and retail investors, where can this wave drop to? Is it just 58,000? Or 55,000? Or 53,000? Or 50,000?
Combined with the Federal Reserve's confirmed interest rate cut in November, how much time is left for this drop? Less than a month. So what will you do next?
Today’s article has covered too many knowledge points. I don’t expect you to fully digest and understand them, but you need to be clear about the core viewpoints. If you still don’t understand, just find the hunter, and I’ll help you rethink.
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