Trump Leads in Election Data, Yet Options Market Shows No Extreme Positions

According to the latest data from Ploymarket, Trump is leading Harris by over 10 points, with Trump at 55.9% and Harris at 43.4%. As implied volatility remains low, BTC traders need to establish corresponding positions to prepare for a potential bull market that could arise from a Trump victory.

However, the data shows that although BTC options will expire on November 8, 2024, the market has not exhibited extreme positions, indicating that traders are maintaining a cautious attitude towards the election outcome. It cannot be ruled out that while Trump's election may be beneficial for the crypto market, his monetary policy could exert pressure on the long-term trajectory of crypto assets.

MicroStrategy Remains Hot, Investors Prefer Complex Investment Strategies to Lock in Profits

Data shows that the trading volume in the BTC options market this year has ranged between $42 billion and $71 billion, making it a more favored leveraged tool among traders. Additionally, although MicroStrategy's current stock price is higher than the value of its held BTC, the decline in mining revenue has made holding MicroStrategy shares an alternative choice for gaining direct exposure to Bitcoin.

Fed's Rate Cut Expectations for November Decline, BTC Price Faces Pressure

The minutes from the Fed's September meeting indicate that policymakers have differing views on the extent of recent rate cuts, with a minority of officials calling for a 25 bp cut and receiving some support from attendees. Following the release of the minutes, the market quickly adjusted its expectations for a rate cut in November, and U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday while the crypto market fell. Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows that the probability of a 25 bp rate cut by the Fed in November is 70.4%, while the probability of no cut has risen to 29.6%.

Earlier this year, the macroeconomic situation improved, leading to a rebound in BTC prices, but as both market structure and liquidity-driving factors weakened, a pullback occurred. Trump's victory could bring positive news for BTC, but if the Fed adopts a tightening monetary stance to counteract the excessive economic stimulus from Trump's policies, the upward movement will face resistance. During this pre-election period, traders looking to profit in the short term may consider using call option arbitrage strategies to manage risk and capture upside gains.

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Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.

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