Unknowingly, it’s already Friday. After finishing work today, the hunter can finally take a two-day break. Over the weekend, I will post a review summary to help everyone identify the issues and shortcomings we each exposed during this market wave. I believe that when the moon is full, it wanes; when water is full, it overflows. Perfection is unattainable in everything, but we must strive for it, as only then can we improve continuously.

     In fact, through the operations during this period, including the hunter's review thinking to predict, verify, and operate the market, this method combined with the market trends should no longer raise doubts about its effectiveness. It completely abandons traditional thinking methods and has developed a more efficient and intuitive trading experience. However, today everyone must pay special attention: according to the hunter's understanding, this wave of rhythm has reached its end. The upcoming market will be a significant test for me, and I need to re-verify. Everyone must not follow blindly; do not think that my trades will always be profitable. This is unrealistic. I am also constantly trial and error to find the correct direction.

     Now I ask everyone to read the articles from the past two weeks. You will find that whether it was last Thursday's false break of 60000 leading to a one-sided rise, or this Monday's false break of 64200 leading to a one-sided drop, as well as Wednesday's repeated pullback and plunge at 61700, the market seems to have an invisible blade, particularly targeting technical traders. For ordinary retail investors, they only look at support and resistance or are swept along by market sentiment (shouting that a bull market is coming or a bear market is here). Since the market opened in October, every move has been aimed at technical traders, representing a targeted demolition, while retail investors have not faced much firepower, at most experiencing firepower suppression.

     The difference between targeted demolition and pinpoint demolition:

   Targeted demolition: Having their own understanding of market trends, whether it’s wave theory, indicator theory, or pattern theory, collectively referred to as technical traders. Their characteristic is that when they believe a trend is forming, they will create a complete trading plan based on their theoretical methods, making corresponding operations based on key signals in a trend, unaffected by short-term fluctuations. They represent the case of breaking below the 60000 floor to chase shorts and breaking above the 64200 ceiling to chase longs. Therefore, their profits are continuous, and their losses are also continuous until a trend is completed.

   Pinpoint demolition: Simply understood as retail investors, they only look at the so-called support and resistance that appear in short-term fluctuations. This support and resistance can often be formed by several consecutive hourly candlesticks, making it very easy to break. Once support and resistance are broken, they will be stopped out.

   Understanding the difference between targeted demolition and pinpoint demolition, let’s review yesterday's market:

    The previous articles by the hunter have already informed everyone that the long positions at 61700 were the last batch of technical traders whose mentality exploded. The players who were overly optimistic were continuously targeted for demolition, and their remaining funds were nearly exhausted. Yesterday, the market dipped and then rebounded during the day, confirming the floor support at a minimum of 60300. In the afternoon, it maintained a sideways fluctuation around 61000, and the long positions at 61700 could not be resolved. Before the CPI data was released in the evening, it fell back to a minimum of 60700, not reaching the floor, and retail investors could not enter long positions at low levels. Therefore, yesterday's market was clearly aimed at the long positions trapped at 61700, with little relation to retail investors.

     This is why the hunter has pointed out in both articles and live broadcasts that the CPI is a very favorable data point, but the market will not give you the opportunity to short after a surge; instead, it urgently tells everyone to enter short directly at 61200. Because if the data is favorable and the market surges, it would give the 61700 trapped positions a chance to escape, and ordinary retail investors would also be waiting for the favorable data to surge to 61700 to short. Whether it’s retail investors or technical traders trapped in high long positions, those who escape will escape, and those who profit from shorts will profit. Who will lose this money? Clearly, only a few players are left at the table. The technical traders who were trapped in high long positions have left the table, leaving only retail investors and the market makers. Then, retail investors still want to profit from shorting at 61700. Do you expect the market makers to lose to you? My evaluation: very foolish and naive!

     Understanding today’s market:

     At two o'clock in the morning, the market hit a low of 59000, dipped, and then rebounded. Whether it’s a rebound from overselling or a bottom reversal, it indicates that the market is set to rise. By eight o'clock in the morning, the market regained its footing at 60000 and began to rise slowly. As of now, it is fluctuating around 61000. This wave of rise is very similar to yesterday's. The slow rise at eight o'clock is clearly due to domestic retail investors entering the market slowly (funds are too dispersed) and with weak momentum (the fund size is too small). Combining the above, we can infer that technical traders have temporarily ceased operations, and the only players left in the market are retail investors and market makers.

     Therefore, today’s market, based on the changes in the players at the table, has shifted from targeted demolition to pinpoint demolition.

     The essence of pinpoint demolition is to find the positions where retail investors are concentrated. In simple terms, it’s about finding support and resistance. The first batch of retail long positions entered during the rise at eight o'clock this morning because the market rebounded and stabilized at 60000, giving hope for an upward movement. This position remains a point where retail investors are eager to enter long. Meanwhile, the upper level of 61700 is where the market began to plunge, becoming a pressure point for retail investors eager to short.

     Combining the current sideways fluctuation around 61000, there are no good entry points for either longs or shorts, and the subsequent market can be inferred. Two scenarios:

     Scenario one: a slow rise in the afternoon, repeatedly facing pressure near 61700, short positions enter, and then a surge and demolition.

     Scenario two: a slow decline in the afternoon, repeatedly rising near 60000, long positions enter, and then a drop and demolition.

     Since today there are only ordinary retail investors at the table, with small funds, weak skills, and a heavy sense of luck, the actual market fluctuations will not be too fast. There is no need for a one-time demolition; a slow rise and slow decline can be used, gradually cutting losses step by step.

   Intra-day trading operations:

   Short at 60800-61000, stop loss at 61700. Note that this stop loss is insurance. According to the above reasoning, 61700 will not break directly and will need to face repeated pressure and fall back. Therefore, if the subsequent market rises, it will also fall back multiple times, and we can stop loss on the short position near 61000.

   If the subsequent market continues to decline slowly and rebounds multiple times near 60000, then hold onto this short position and gradually take profits in the 59500-59000 range.

   
   Regarding the controversy over CPI:

    The previous value was 2.5, the expectation was 2.3, and the actual announcement was 2.4. The announced value is actually higher than the expected value, and all the conclusions given by the websites regarding the data release are bearish for the cryptocurrency market. However, brothers, you forgot one point: the core inflation for the quarter is 3.2, and this month’s figure of 2.4 was announced after the end of the third quarter. This means that last quarter was 3.2, and this new quarter is 2.4, and it is continuously declining. I know this data is fake, but this fake data is indeed continuously decreasing. Lower inflation is favorable for US stocks, and the relationship between US stocks and Bitcoin is that they rise and fall together. Therefore, from my perspective, the data is favorable, not the bearish conclusion published by the websites. Everyone should know that these websites are not government authorities; they are just private organizations, and their conclusions are based on simple previous values and expectations. The debate over whether CPI is favorable or unfavorable depends on your perspective on this data.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。