Bitcoin oscillated around the $60,000 level for a long time last night, and after midnight today (11th), it continued to fluctuate and decline.

It hit a low of $58,900 at 2 AM, marking the lowest point since September 17.

However, Bitcoin quickly rebounded, currently reported at $60,433, with the 24-hour decline narrowing to 0.67%. Does this indicate that the main players have gained liquidity?

Although it looks dangerous, a closer look shows: the bears are not as strong as in the previous three instances.

On the contrary, the three upward movements of the bulls have all broken the previous high points, which is enough to indicate that since the sharp decline on August 5, the bulls have begun to gradually recover.

Currently, Bitcoin is undoubtedly still oscillating here. Although the price has not broken the previous high, it did drop below $50,000 at one point, but quickly recovered.

Overall, while Bitcoin's movement gives a sense of danger, when viewed in the context of the overall trend, BTC is still in a bullish market.

However, this year's bull market is quite bumpy; it takes three steps forward and two steps back, making it hard to build confidence.

This year’s altcoins have been the hardest to play, essentially peaking in one wave, and if one is a bit greedy, the early profits have already been significantly given back.

Therefore, to achieve results with altcoins this year, one needs courage when buying and skill when selling.

With the influx of capital, the investment mindset required from everyone is getting higher. Sometimes, the technical analysis suggests a move, but the market sentiment is very hot, and this internal struggle can easily lead to losing direction.

I see a bull market in 2024, but many people do not share this view; because the opinions of those around them, the continuous decline in Bitcoin prices, and the fact that it has been oscillating for over six months without stopping, along with the lack of improvement in altcoins, are all factors that raise concerns.

This may be the main reason for the anxiety of a large portion of people. The reason I do not feel this anxiety is quite simple.

The people in my circle share the same views as I do, and our past experiences and the trading systems we have mastered tell me: this market is good, and the longer it oscillates, the more it will allow valuable coins to soar.

As for the reason behind Bitcoin's rapid drop and recovery, it may be related to the two economic data releases from the U.S. last night:

The U.S. CPI for September rose 2.4% year-on-year, although lower than August's 2.5%, it was slightly higher than the market expectation of 2.3%.

The number of first-time unemployment claims in the U.S. last week was 258,000, an increase of 33,000 from the previous week, also higher than the market expectation of 230,000.

In the context of persistent inflation and a relatively weak labor force, all four major U.S. stock indices closed down, and Bitcoin suffered losses.

Now let's talk about the upcoming market:

- If BTC stabilizes above MA120, it will welcome a wave of main upward momentum.

This could last for about 3–6 months, and if it coincides with a rapid interest rate cut by the U.S., then all conditions will be favorable.

- However, it may not be the kind of bull market where everything rises; new things and technological innovations need to follow for that to happen.

But in any case, if we don’t see new things in this round, only a few memes, and while there seems to be some profit-making effect recently, it hasn’t spread widely, which has already pulled a lot.

If it all turns into just meme trading, then the market is unlikely to last long.

- Whether it’s U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, or the A-share market, they have all just happened to benefit from the expectations of this round of interest rate cuts.

There will be a transmission effect later, and if there is a large-scale, long-term adjustment, then the crypto circle may also find it hard to avoid a prolonged downturn.

Therefore, in the latter half, we still need to pay attention to risks; there are too many uncertainties with altcoins, and the only long-term belief can be in BTC.

- It’s still important to accumulate more cash as the market rises. Currently, we are still in a relatively severe employment environment, and this may last for a long time.

Having a certain amount of cash on hand allows one to wait for opportunities, and when the time is right, having reserves will enable long-term survival.

In the crypto industry, if you want to seize the next bull market opportunity, you need to have a quality circle; everyone can band together for support and maintain insight. If you are alone, looking around and finding no one, it is actually very difficult to persist in this industry.

If you want to band together for support or have doubts, feel free to join us—WeChat public account: You Bi Zhi Qing Nian.

Thank you for reading. If you liked it, please give a thumbs up and follow us. See you next time!

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