In the long run, I still have a more optimistic view on crypto assets.

CN
5 hours ago

At the end of the article on October 8, a reader left the following comment:

"For the crypto field to survive, it is impossible without going through a few heart-wrenching experiences. This is the same for all venture capital fields."

This statement is very well put.

These heart-wrenching experiences include many types, such as:

When the short-term market is sluggish, being able to endure the short-term sluggishness while still believing in the long-term trend's prosperity without being affected by this short-term downturn.

Any investment market, even one that can thrive for decades in the long run, will experience intermittent, short-term sluggishness; this is a very normal phenomenon.

Even in such markets, although everyone will later realize that as long as they can hold on, they will ultimately gain considerable returns, the vast majority of people will be thrown out of the market for various reasons along the way. Once thrown out of the market, no matter how good the future of that market is, it has nothing to do with the investors.

The easiest way to throw investors out of the market is through one short-term downturn after another.

Clearly, the current crypto market is facing sluggishness: on one hand, there is a lack of internal application innovation, and on the other hand, there is competition from various other external assets.

However, I still believe this sluggishness is temporary.

Of course, if we look closely, we will still find that every now and then, there are "meme coin" "miracle projects" that appear, with increases of 10 times or even 100 times being no problem. I fully believe that many players will seize one after another of these miracle projects and become wealthy. From that perspective, the current crypto ecosystem may still be considered "prosperous."

But that kind of "prosperity" is something I cannot grasp, nor is it what I hope for.

What I hope for is the emergence of applications that truly disrupt our values—especially the emergence of genuine applications that combine artificial intelligence and blockchain.

I believe such applications will definitely appear, and I also believe that blockchain technology will give rise to disruptive applications that we cannot currently imagine. Furthermore, I am convinced that blockchain technology may indeed be the killer technology that can be used to govern AI.

At that time, the price of crypto assets will be completely beyond what we can imagine today.

However, returning to the present, or rather, in the next six months to a year, I really do not see this trend. Of course, if the next six months to a year can prove that my feeling is wrong, that would be the best outcome.

Do old readers still remember that I have mentioned several times in articles and online discussions: if there is no bull market in the next six months to a year, I am already prepared to hold onto these assets for at least another four years.

I wonder how many readers took my statement seriously when they saw me write or heard me say this?

I first wrote this out of a certain premonition: that in the short term, the market's trend may not be as optimistic as we imagine.

Regarding the current types of assets:

I have not bought any more funds or stocks in the U.S. stock market, and I have not bought any more funds or stocks in the A-share market either. I am still dollar-cost averaging into Ethereum (because its price is still below $2,500).

Among these types of assets, I still hold the most in crypto assets. Because in the long run, I still believe in it the most, more than U.S. stocks, and even more than A-shares.

Another reader asked if it is now a good time to buy Chinese stocks?

Coincidentally, in the past few days, two seniors I have repeatedly mentioned in my articles also talked about this issue: one is Lin Yuan, and the other is Dan Bin.

Both of them invest in A-shares, but their attitudes towards retail investors are completely different:

Lin Yuan's attitude is very high-profile; he encourages everyone to actively enter the market now. Dan Bin is very cautious and advises retail investors to be careful.

I completely agree with Dan Bin's view. I also suggest that readers can revisit my articles from September 26 and September 30.

In summary, I hope our readers can look at issues rationally, objectively and neutrally recognize the current situation of crypto assets, while also maintaining confidence and courage for the future.

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