Once again, the US SEC is bearish on the crypto market. I never expected that after yesterday's 15-minute surge, it would come crashing down again. It's frustrating and infuriating; just when we gained a bit of confidence, it was smashed back to square one. The altcoins are bleeding heavily, and there aren't many people bottom-fishing at this small scale. This kind of 15-minute volume contraction rebound can easily be broken.

I don't know when these days will come to an end; there is simply no sustained market trend. The situation immediately makes you pay for your own understanding. We in the crypto space are living too hard; those who can make money now are the real experts. Institutions, exchanges, and project teams all need to profit; they wear brand names, but what about us? Earning a little money is really not easy!

Currently, the fear index has reached 39 again.

The US government is preparing to sell 69,370 bitcoins seized from the Silk Road market, along with 15,700 related to the PlusToken scam, the war between Israel and Iran is escalating, the Ethereum Foundation is selling another 100 ETH, and Sun Yuchen is selling 600 bitcoins, causing panic.

Bitcoin is struggling to hold the $60,000 mark!

Next, we should focus on how the $60,000 support level performs; there are two possibilities:

First possibility:

If it reaches the $60,000 support level and finds support, the adjustment ends, and we can expect a surge (or continued upward oscillation).

This scenario can be seen as a second test of the second support level, but it is important to note that there has been no divergence in the decline below the 4-hour level.

Second possibility:

It could drop directly from here or continue to be tortured, testing the $64,000 resistance from the $60,000 support, then drop, completing a 1:1 decline from $66,500.

However, the danger of this approach is that it could fall to around the $57,000 range. If emotions spiral out of control combined with negative news, it could easily break through the $57,000 range and lead to a further decline.

On the macro front:

The first point to pay attention to is:

This is a tweet from the Federal Reserve's communications agency early in the morning:

The second point to pay attention to is: tonight's CPI data:

Since August, there has been a very obvious pattern in the market, which is that around the 8th of each month tends to be the market's lowest point. This timing is often accompanied by the release of important economic data, after which the market begins to rise. The last few days of the month are often the peak of the phase, followed by a downward trend. You can verify this with candlestick charts.

In terms of operations:

From the daily chart, BTC has experienced a significant surge and has been consolidating in the $52,000 to $70,000 range for over half a year, showing a very strong flag pattern. The chip exchange is nearing completion, and with the possibility of continued interest rate cuts, I am very optimistic about BTC's next larger increase.

Currently, I am focusing on the swing of PEPE. Compared to various VC coins, retail investors' trust in VC coins is declining, while I am more optimistic about MEME coins, especially in a bull market where MEME coins have stronger explosive potential.

In terms of liquidity, PEPE is still the best-performing MEME coin currently, and seizing swing opportunities can bring considerable profits.

Swing trading and main upward trends are, in my opinion, the only ways to truly make money in this market.

In contrast, I don't particularly like day trading or ultra-short-term trading. Although the daily returns and win rates seem tempting, in the long run, it is likely that you won't make money. Steady and solid progress is the way to go for the long term.

Although the market is terrible, I still remain optimistic about the future!

Overall, while the crypto market faces short-term fluctuations, the overall outlook remains optimistic from a medium to long-term perspective. We can expect that the current adjustment is more of a market washout, aimed at clearing out short-term speculative funds to build momentum for the next round of increases.

If you want to seize the next bull market opportunity in the crypto industry, you need to have a quality community where everyone can support each other and maintain insight. If you are alone, looking around and finding no one, it is actually very difficult to persist in this industry.

If you want to find support or have questions, feel free to join us — WeChat Official Account: You Bi Zhi Qing Nian

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