The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the United States in September will be released on October 10, 2024, at 20:30 (Hong Kong time). The market generally expects a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in the overall CPI for September, while the core CPI is expected to rise by 0.2%. Year-on-year, the overall CPI is projected to drop from 2.5% in August to 2.3%, while the core CPI is expected to remain stable with a year-on-year increase of 3.2%.

At the end of September, Bitcoin fell again from about $66,000 to a low of $60,000 on October 3, and then fluctuated narrowly between $62,000 and $63,000. However, early this morning (10th), Bitcoin declined, breaking below the $61,000 mark.

Despite the recent downward fluctuations in Bitcoin, the extent of the rotation bull market's pullback remains relatively small, consistent with historical bull market patterns, showing a certain market tension. The current market structure is similar to past bull markets, reflecting stable demand and indicating that the recent pullback is relatively limited. Compared to previous bull markets, the current pullback is smaller, suggesting that market demand is playing a role in stabilizing the decline. Two key indicators—the "real market average price" and the "active investor cost price"—are beneficial for assessing the average cost basis of investors in the current Bitcoin cycle. The real market average price represents the average entry price of all market participants, while the active investor cost price focuses on the average cost of active traders in recent months.

Since the beginning of this year, Bitcoin's price has mostly included these two indicators, indicating that even during price pullbacks, the market will be significantly supported. Increased confidence and sustained demand have somewhat alleviated the market's import pressure. If Bitcoin's closing price can maintain above $64,500, the bull market momentum will further strengthen; conversely, if it falls below the average cost price of short-term holders (holding time not exceeding 3 months) at $61,600, market patience may be tested. Currently, Bitcoin's price is about $61,000, having dropped 2.4% in the past 24 hours, with a low of $60,388.17. The global cryptocurrency market cap has fallen to $2.22 trillion, evaporating 3.4% in a single day.

Although the cryptocurrency market's upward trend ended on the 8th, historical data shows that Bitcoin often experiences a significant surge after October 15. Coupled with the support of increased stablecoin liquidity, this upward trend may repeat itself. On-chain data shows a double surge in "stablecoin liquidity" and "Bitcoin whale transactions," which may lead to a potential surge in Bitcoin in the coming weeks. At the end of September, stablecoin liquidity grew to a record $169 billion this year, reaching a cumulative total of 31%. Among them, the market cap of USDT increased by $28 billion to about $120 billion, with a market share of 71%; the market cap of USDC rose by $11 billion to $36 billion, growing 44% this year, with a market share of 21%. These factors may provide momentum for Bitcoin's further rebound.

As cryptocurrency spot and futures trading often use stablecoins as trading pairs, the increase in stablecoin liquidity indicates strong market buying demand, with investors accumulating "ammunition" that can be deployed into the market at any time, waiting for the right opportunity to buy. Data shows a significant positive correlation between the amount of stablecoins held by exchanges (which has increased by 20% since the beginning of the year) and Bitcoin prices. Since the bull market started in early 2023, the total amount of USDT (ERC20) on exchanges has risen from $9.2 billion to $22.7 billion, an increase of 146%. Even when Bitcoin prices are stagnant, the reserve of stablecoins on exchanges has still increased by 20%.

Entering October, although Bitcoin's price has accumulated a decline of over 6%, historical data shows that since 2013, Bitcoin's performance in October has often been strong, with maximum increases of up to 60% and an average increase of 22%. In the past 11 years, there have only been two years where October closed down, making October one of the best-performing months for Bitcoin. Combined with the trend of increasing stablecoin liquidity, the likelihood of Bitcoin experiencing a strong surge after October 15 is high.

Meanwhile, the trading volume of Bitcoin "whales" has recently increased significantly, a phenomenon that historically often signals a price increase. Whales refer to investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin, and their trading behavior can significantly impact market prices. Recently, many long-dormant whale accounts have become active, with on-chain trading volume reaching $37.4 billion on Tuesday, a new high in nearly seven months. Historical experience shows that Bitcoin that has been long-idle re-entering the market usually provides price support.

Tonight, the U.S. will release the unadjusted CPI year-on-year data for September, with the previous value at 2.50% and the expected value at 2.3%. Generally, a CPI below expectations is favorable for the market, while a CPI above expectations is the opposite. However, considering the market's expectations for an upcoming interest rate cut, the impact of the CPI data may be limited, only slightly affecting the pace of rate cuts. Even if Bitcoin experiences a short-term decline due to market panic, the extent of the drop is not expected to be significant, with only a brief sharp decline possible. For short-term investors, it is advisable to guard against pullback risks, and those who have built positions at high levels should set stop-loss orders and avoid excessive chasing, while those who entered at lower levels should not exit easily.

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