The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September 2024 is set to be released at 8:30 PM Hong Kong time on October 10.

The market generally expects the overall CPI data for the U.S. in September to slightly decrease from last month's 2.5% to 2.3%, with the month-on-month growth rate also dropping from 0.2% to 0.1%. The core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy costs, is expected to maintain a year-on-year growth rate of 3.2%. The year-on-year growth rate of the CPI in September is expected to remain resilient, with the possibility of it stabilizing or even increasing.

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Morgan Stanley predicts that the core CPI in the U.S. will rise by 0.26% month-on-month in September, slightly higher than the market's general prediction of 0.20%. The year-on-year core CPI is expected to increase by 3.2%. The overall CPI is anticipated to rise by 0.09% month-on-month, with the overall inflation rate decreasing due to falling gasoline prices. Morgan Stanley believes that due to rising prices of used cars and airline tickets, goods inflation is expected to increase, but service inflation is expected to slow down, mainly due to a decline in housing inflation.

Trading Economics predicts that the CPI data for September 2024 will be around 314.86 based on historical U.S. CPI data, with a year-on-year growth of 0.2%. Predictions from 48 institutions show that they generally expect the CPI data for September 2024 to rebound, but the core CPI data, which the Federal Reserve is more focused on, is expected to decline.

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If the CPI data is lower than market expectations, it indicates a reduction in inflationary pressure. This would be a positive signal for the market, leading to expectations that the Federal Reserve has more room to implement accommodative monetary policies, such as interest rate cuts or increasing liquidity. Such expectations would also boost the stock market, as lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for companies and increase bond prices. Additionally, lower-than-expected CPI data would lead to a weaker dollar, and with the Federal Reserve likely to adopt a more accommodative policy under these circumstances, high-dividend defensive stocks could come under pressure. For example, in March 2024, both CPI and PPI data were below market expectations, indicating that the price recovery process remains slow.

If the CPI data exceeds market expectations, it indicates increased inflationary pressure, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain or even strengthen tightening policies to curb inflation. Bank of America has stated that if the CPI is higher than expected, the expectation of a "pause in interest rate cuts" could sweep through the financial markets. If interest rates are raised, this would lead to a decline in the stock market, especially for interest-sensitive tech stocks, as high rates increase companies' financing costs. On April 10, 2024, the U.S. Department of Labor released March CPI data that surprised the market, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.5% and a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, the highest level since September 2023, leading to a significant drop in the U.S. stock market.

If the CPI data aligns with market expectations, it reflects that the current market monetary policy is effective and inflation is under control. The Federal Reserve is likely to continue following its existing monetary policy path, which plays an important role in stabilizing market confidence. The financial market's reaction would also be relatively calm, as reduced interest rate volatility would not lead to a repricing of the bond and stock markets, thereby strengthening investor confidence.

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