Did everyone read the hunter's article yesterday? Let's take a look at last night's market and see if it aligns perfectly with the hunter's thoughts. First, I want to tell everyone that during the consolidation phase at 62500, you could directly short. In the evening during the US market phase, I advised everyone to aggressively short if it broke below 61700, and conservatively short if it broke below 61700, with a rebound at 62300 to short. I just want to ask, was every point within the hunter's calculation range, and did it hit every step of the rhythm? Whether you were aggressive or conservative, whether you placed limit orders or market orders, you could enter the market.
I don't need to boast about my abilities because the market has proven me right too many times. I just hope that every review can inspire you to interpret the market according to my thoughts, to straighten out the seemingly chaotic fluctuations into a straight line, so that everyone no longer feels fear towards the market, but rather watches it perform with a sense of irony, understanding why they earn and why they lose, becoming clear-minded individuals who do clear-minded things.
Come on, brothers, let's continue into the review phase—
Yesterday, Bitcoin maintained a consolidation phase around 62000-62300 throughout the day. In the early morning, it broke below 61700 and accelerated to 60300. Currently, the market has entered a consolidation phase around 61000 after a strong rebound.
Detail One: After breaking below 61700 for the first time at 10 PM last night, it quickly rebounded back to 62300-62400 at 11 PM, and this position held for half an hour before entering a downward trend. From this point, we can draw two conclusions. The first conclusion is that 61700 is a strong support level; breaking below it means that all long positions from the day at 62300-62000 faced large-scale stop losses, with a small portion holding on. The second conclusion is that the break below 61700 may have attracted technical traders to short.
When the market broke below 61700 at 10 PM, the hourly chart showed a doji star, and at 11 PM, it closed with a large bullish candle to 62400, forming a shooting star pattern at the hourly chart level. At this point, would the technical traders who shorted remember the nightmare of being liquidated after continuously shorting at 60000 and going long at 64200 within just a week? Upon seeing such a clear reversal signal after the break, would the shorts run away?
After the technical traders' stop losses were triggered, the market confirmed support at 61700 with two consecutive retests at midnight and 1 AM. Even if there were shorts without stop losses, seeing the market not breaking below 61700 would force them to exit. What would they think then? Damn, this market has tricked me once and twice; this time I learned to stop loss. Then they remember that all the long positions at 62300-62000 were swept out, and now they are the only ones left holding the bag. If they don’t go long now, when will they? The market makers are ruthless!
As a result, at 2 AM, the market broke below 61700 and started a waterfall decline. At this point, I can only say that this generation of technical traders is pitiful, and this generation of market makers is insane. If it were you, would you be able to maintain a calm mindset after being continuously liquidated and toyed with by your proud techniques? Or have you already lost your cool?
Detail Two: In the morning, the market bottomed at 60300 and began a slow rise, currently maintaining around 61000. The rise in the morning started at 8 AM, and it is clear that this rise was driven by domestic retail investors. The reason is easy to judge; the support at 60000 was tested in the early morning and confirmed effective. When they woke up and saw the market near 60000 again, they would definitely want to go long. Therefore, this wave of rise was driven by continuous buying from retail investors, but the speed was slow (too much dispersed capital) and the strength was weak (too small capital volume). So when the North American main players enter the market during the evening session and see these retail long positions, will they have any thoughts?
From the above two details, we can deduce today’s market trend.
The long positions at 61700 are already trapped (technical traders). This morning, retail investors began to enter the market and buy long positions near 60000. As long as the market maintains consolidation in the afternoon and retests the 60000 level, it will only attract more people to take over. However, it absolutely cannot rise above 61700; otherwise, it will allow the technical traders' long positions to break even. There is no possibility for technical traders to add positions today because they have already been mostly liquidated; they lack the ability and courage to add positions. Their hope now rests on tonight's favorable CPI data and the strong support at 60000. I don’t believe the main players will let these overzealous traders break even.
Today's intraday operation: around 61200 (200 points up and down), stop loss at 61700, target 59500-59000.
Currently, I have a long-term bearish position at 64000, an additional short at 62500, and a position to add to the short if it breaks below 61700. I have already notified the part to take profit at 60500 for the short added at 61700, while the other part continues to hold, waiting to reduce by 50% at 58000 and then re-enter on a rebound.
CPI data—hunter's personal view—
The core CPI inflation is still at 3.2, but the overall CPI forecast target has been set at 2.3. This is the official forecast data released by the Federal Reserve. Inflation is completely gone? No, buddy, are you kidding me? Do I not have a few American friends? Is inflation really this low? Has consumption in the US become cheaper or more expensive? I can’t be that clueless!
Come on, you American optimists, explain this to me.
The data that the Federal Reserve has recently relied on regarding interest rate cuts is none other than non-farm payrolls and CPI, right? These two data points are too real, so real that I can’t help but say, mother f***er, last week they dared to say non-farm employment was 256,000, and not a single one of Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, or Deutsche Bank dared to give a prediction above 210,000. This is the American dream; I’m black and I’m getting it for free.
So since June, the hunter has not made any predictions on non-farm payrolls and CPI. This data serves the results; it’s just nonsense that comes out of their mouths. If I analyze and predict it, wouldn’t that be even more nonsensical? Brothers, if you see any foolish analysts still using non-farm and CPI data to hype the crypto market and then analyze the data to call trades, blacklist them immediately; they are either stupid or malicious.
Now the data serves the results, and what is the result? The result is that the Federal Reserve hopes that the smiling girl won’t cry. Haha, sister, the Democratic candidate Harris, and now Harris and Trump’s approval ratings are very close, both sides are vying for swing states. Brothers, you need to know that this election is different from the past; losing can be done gracefully.
Trump was first accused of collusion with Russia and almost went to jail. During the election phase, he has already been targeted twice, once missed and once failed. Biden’s son is also preparing to go to jail for improper dealings. The enmity between both sides is too deep; they are both playing for keeps, and whoever comes to power will have to settle scores.
The Federal Reserve is now clearly supporting Harris. If they want to support Harris, they need to create the illusion of a good economy and a good stock market. So the non-farm data being fabricated can be understood, right? For the economy to be good, the stock market must be good, which means inflation must be very low to continue cutting interest rates and stimulate the stock market. It’s a typical case of wanting it both ways. Therefore, the CPI tonight is likely to be favorable for the stock market.
For the crypto market, today it is known that the strong support at 60000 is effective, the bottom is still there, and the long positions at 61700 are trapped. Tonight, when the data is released favorably for the stock market, it will also positively impact the crypto market. What will the retail investors do? What will the foolish analysts encourage the retail investors to do? It’s obvious that they will try to bottom fish, so unless the market doesn’t pull back today, as long as it dares to pull back near 60000, all the retail investors will rush in. A total slaughter!
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