Continuous Decline, Testing $60,000 Again!
Recently, while the Nasdaq index in the U.S. stock market has seen two consecutive days of gains, Bitcoin has been on a continuous downward trend. After hovering around $62,000 for a few days, it ultimately couldn't hold, and this morning it broke through a key support level, plunging to a low of $60,251. As of now, the market has shown some signs of recovery.
No need for subtlety, I bought some again when it dropped to $60,500 today!
October has historically been a key month and turning point for Bitcoin prices.
Last October, the market began to warm up. October is quite magical; market sentiment swings between optimism and pessimism, but most of the time, the market seems to find reasons to rise.
Currently, it is evident that market sentiment is once again swinging between optimism and pessimism.
My choice is to keep buying:
Macroeconomic Factors:
The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and inflation data will have a significant impact on the market. If inflation data comes in lower than expected, it may trigger expectations for interest rate cuts, which would be favorable for risk assets, including Bitcoin.
ETF and Institutional Investor Dynamics:
Although the approval of Bitcoin ETFs has brought in a lot of funds, recent data shows that ETF inflows have stalled, and there has even been net outflows. This may reflect a shift in current market sentiment, as investors seem to be waiting for clearer signals or more favorable entry points.
Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis:
From a technical perspective, after experiencing six months of wide fluctuations, Bitcoin's current price is at the support level of $60,500, which may become the focal point of contention between bulls and bears.
Political and Social Factors:
Although not directly mentioned, there is a sense of concern about the current political environment from Elon Musk's posts, which may affect investors' risk appetite and indirectly influence Bitcoin's price.
CPI Approaches, The Battle Begins
At 8:30 PM tonight, the U.S. will announce CPI data, which I believe is a potential turning point. The recent market movements align with my expectations.
Since August, there has been a very clear pattern in the market, which is that around the 8th of each month tends to be the market's lowest point. This timing often coincides with the release of important economic data, after which the market begins to rise. The last few days of the month are typically the peak of the phase, followed by a downward trend. You can verify this with candlestick charts.
The current trend still fits this rhythm; it remains to be seen whether we can see a wave of upward movement. Various cryptocurrencies have also approached previous key support levels, and whether they can withstand the test of a downturn for the third time could be seen as a repeated bottoming process.
I have another guess: the main players may not first pull up Bitcoin, which has a concentrated long position, but instead use Ethereum, which has long been viewed unfavorably, as a breakthrough point, leading a host of altcoins upward, creating a profit effect to attract liquidity. Coupled with the narrative of Ethereum's upgrade at the end of the year, the actual market also gives me a stronger feeling about Ethereum. This is the script I have in mind; everyone can just laugh it off.
Although the market is poor, I still have faith in the future!
Overall, while the crypto market faces short-term volatility, the long-term outlook remains optimistic. We can expect that the current adjustment is more of a market washout, aimed at clearing short-term speculative funds to build strength for the next round of increases.
The capital market is essentially a battlefield of human nature, and the crypto market is the ultimate manifestation of this game. With the gradual recovery of the global economy and further easing of monetary policy, there is still significant room for incremental funds in the crypto market. For those investors who can hold patiently, the arrival of the next bull market is worth looking forward to.
Therefore, the current market adjustment does not mean a change in the long-term trend, and investors need not be overly pessimistic. On the contrary, this may be a new opportunity for positioning, preparing for future increases. I believe that after the storm, the crypto market will eventually welcome a new bull market.
This article is time-sensitive and for reference only; it will be updated in real-time.
Focusing on candlestick technical research, sharing global investment opportunities. Public account: Crypto悟饭
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