Today, I don't know how to write about the market. Aside from a rebound to 63200 last night, it has basically been fluctuating between 62000-62300, with less than 500 points of movement by the time the hunter published the article. It's been a long time since I've seen such a calm market. New traders fear a one-sided market, while experienced traders fear fluctuations. This market has allowed the retail traders to happily trade, transforming high shorts and low longs into trading masters, operating back and forth with 500 points, enjoying it endlessly. The exchanges are smiling from the backend flow.

Brothers, I can only comment on the calm before the storm. The short-term trading feels so good now, but when it starts moving tonight, it will be a disaster.

Let's review yesterday's market—

On Monday night, the breakout at 64200 did not accelerate upward, peaking at 64400 before quickly reversing and falling. In the previous article, the hunter already demonstrated that the rise to 64400 had only two reasons: forcing stop losses at the top and intimidating the technical traders who dared not short at the 64000 support-resistance conversion.

On Tuesday, the market maintained a low-level consolidation throughout the day, with a surge to 63200 in the evening. From this perspective, you will find it very difficult to enter short positions yesterday. Even if you did, you would be intimidated by the surge to 63200 in the evening. From a bearish perspective, the bears are actually very uncomfortable.

Now, moving to today, the market has maintained between 62300-62000. From the previous text, it can be seen that not only are there few bears, but their positions are also very uncomfortable. At the same time, a bottoming pattern has emerged, with 62300-62000 becoming the concentrated entry point for long positions, and the lower support at 61700 being effectively tested.

From this, we can conclude: there are no large-scale short positions in the market, those who chased long at the high of 64200 are trapped, and a large number of bottom-fishing long positions are accumulating at the bottom of 62300-62000.

Conclusion: The market is about to break below 61700 and accelerate downward.

Specific manifestations:

Situation 1: Break below 61700 and directly accelerate to around 60500.

Reason: Direct break, exploding bottom-fishing long positions, preventing short positions from entering.

Situation 2: Break below 61700 and quickly rebound, but the rebound strength is effective, followed by a second accelerated decline.

Reason: Trapping long positions, intimidating technical traders to short.

The hunter believes that this wave of the market is likely to experience a significant drop, but the specific form of the decline may vary, which is what was just mentioned in the two specific situations.

At the same time, considering the previous situation where those who shorted at the 60000 floor were trapped, and those who chased long at the 64200 high were also trapped, the technical traders have suffered two major losses from the "wolf is coming" story. Currently, the short-term support at 61700 does not carry as much weight as the 60000 floor and the 64200 ceiling, so the probability of technical shorts is very low.

Additionally, combining the fact that since the opening of this week, the market surged to 64400 and then reversed downward without warning.

1. High short positions were forced out.
2. Low short positions cannot enter, making it uncomfortable for the bears.
3. A large number of long positions are accumulating between 62000-62300.
4. Technical traders on the right side have been continuously liquidated.

These four clues are telling one story—

Last week, first, they forced out short positions (shorting below 60000), then advised the remaining short positions to exit (the market broke above 62300 on Monday, retested and confirmed 62300 support, and surged to 64000), and for those who did not exit, they further pressured the shorts (breaking above 64200, leaving no reason for shorts to hold). If the story ends with a one-sided rise, where retail traders successfully escape the top while also bottom-fishing, then that would be a fairy tale. The question is, is there a fairy tale in the crypto world? Which wave of the market is not superficially telling you a fairy tale, while in reality, it is telling a horror story?

Is the conclusion of this story a foreseeable waterfall decline?

Combining the above analysis from the hunter, today's market operations are:

Aggressive: Short if it breaks below 61700.

Conservative: If it breaks below 61700, short on the rebound at 62300-62500 (the current market can already short at 62500).

Stop loss at 63000, target at 60500, reduce positions if it breaks 60000 and continue to hold, looking at 58000.

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