On October 3, local time, foreign media reported that documentary director Cullen Hoback and HBO recently announced that the documentary "MoneyElectric: The Bitcoin Mystery" will premiere on October 8, hinting that it may reveal the true identity of Bitcoin's creator, 'Satoshi Nakamoto'. This statement has sparked significant attention and discussion within the industry. Some even stated, "Cullen Hoback's discovery will shock the world and could even impact the U.S. elections." Interestingly, following the news, the popular on-chain prediction platform Polymarket quickly launched corresponding betting markets, with the latest data showing that as much as 61.5% of bets in the prediction market are on "Satoshi Nakamoto" being Len Sassaman. So who exactly is Satoshi Nakamoto? Let's analyze this step by step.

The Battle of Cryptographers and Bitcoin Pioneers

The highest vote percentage goes to the renowned American cryptographer Len Sassaman, with odds of 49%. He is also one of the early advocates of the Cypherpunks movement, dedicated to the development of PGP (Pretty Good Privacy) encryption software and open-source privacy technologies. He was also a roommate of Bram Cohen, the founder of Bittorrent and Chia, and at that time, both Satoshi Nakamoto and Cohen were early members of the well-known Cypherpunks mailing list. Coincidentally, two months before Sassaman's suicide, "Satoshi Nakamoto" suddenly posted: "I have moved on to other things and may not be here in the future." Since December 13, 2010, Satoshi Nakamoto has never logged in again.

Image source: Internet
The second highest vote percentage goes to Hal Finney, with odds of 14%. Hal Finney was one of the early readers of the Bitcoin white paper and the first person to download and run Bitcoin software after Satoshi Nakamoto. Additionally, on January 12, 2009, Hal Finney received 10 bitcoins from Satoshi Nakamoto, marking the first transaction in Bitcoin's history. There is a theory that Hal Finney concealed his identity to protect his privacy and avoid government scrutiny.
Besides Sassaman and Finney, other potential candidates for Satoshi Nakamoto revealed by HBO include renowned computer scientist and cryptographer Nicholas Szabo and Blockstream CEO Adam Back. Previously, a UK court ruled that Craig Wright is not Satoshi Nakamoto, but for some reason, he appears on the list with a current probability of 2%. Elon Musk also participated in the voting, with a probability of less than 1%.
What causes such a significant difference in vote percentages between Len Sassaman and Hal Finney? Len Sassaman not only worked with Hal Finney on PGP development (the core encryption technology of Bitcoin) but was also the first person to contribute to the Bitcoin code and run a Bitcoin node, aside from Satoshi Nakamoto. He also invented the concept of reusable proof of work, which is the foundation of Bitcoin mining. Compared to Len Sassaman's direct contributions to Bitcoin's technical aspects, Hal Finney's contributions may be more reflected in the dissemination and acceptance of Bitcoin's ideas. Therefore, Len Sassaman's vote percentage is higher than Hal Finney's. Nicholas Szabo's importance on the voting list is due to his status as a renowned computer scientist and cryptographer, with a professional background highly relevant to the creation of Bitcoin. Szabo also participated in early discussions about Bitcoin and published articles on related forums that shared similar ideas to Bitcoin. Adam Back likely received votes because he is the inventor of the Hashcash algorithm, which has a significant impact on Bitcoin's proof-of-work mechanism (PoW) and provides a theoretical foundation for Bitcoin's mining mechanism.

The Documentary Reveals the Mystery

So, will next week's HBO documentary reveal the true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto? Will Satoshi Nakamoto be the highest vote-getter Len Sassaman, the slightly lower vote-getter Hal Finney, or perhaps Nicholas Szabo or Adam Back? Let's wait and see!

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