Preface: Investment carries risks, and operations should be conducted with caution.

Article review takes time, and there may be delays in publication. The article is for reference only, and you are welcome to read!

Article writing time: October 8, 15:46 Beijing Time

Market Information

1. Matrixport: Bitcoin's post-halving returns stabilize, and mining stocks may see a rebound;
2. China relaxes stimulus plans, and Bitcoin's bullish hopes are thwarted;
3. The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has completed the first phase of on-site inspections of virtual asset trading platforms and will announce the next phase plan in due course;
4. Strong U.S. economic data in October leads to a significant decrease in market expectations for the Federal Reserve's November interest rate meeting;
5. The probability of Trump being elected president on Polymarket rises to 53.5%;

Market Review

The National Day holiday has ended, and everyone should have had a pleasant break. Now that the holiday is over, we should refocus and engage in trading;

In the previous holiday sharing article, it was mentioned that the market would continue to push towards 70,000, with the strategy being to buy on dips. However, the market is always unpredictable. A dip occurred, but it directly broke the support level, reaching a low of 59,828 from 66,498. After that, it did not continue to rise, with yesterday's peak at 64,478, indicating that the bulls are not as strong as before. Ethereum also did not break through the short-term high of 2,820, and during the holiday, it fell to 2,310, with the overall rebound strength not being very strong. After the holiday, Bitcoin has once again returned to a correction phase, and this week there may be a greater chance of decline. Below is a simple analysis for everyone;

Market Analysis

BTC:

From the daily chart, Bitcoin previously had a false break below the 200-day moving average, and the market did not stabilize, leading to a rapid decline. This time during the National Day holiday, the trend was similar; after breaking through, it did not stabilize and quickly fell. Last night, Bitcoin once again attempted to test the pressure of the 200-day moving average, but in the early hours, it formed a false breakout with a pin bar and closed with a bearish candle, indicating that the bearish forces are relatively strong at the moment. In the short term, we need to pay attention to whether the support around 60,000 can provide effective support again. If it breaks below this level, Bitcoin will likely move towards the range of 57,900-55,500. In trading this week, it is recommended to take short positions. If it effectively breaks and stabilizes above the 200-day moving average, the short position should be abandoned. The entry point is around 63,600, and you can use the upper level of 63,600 as a stop-loss. The initial target is 60,000, and if it breaks, hold until the range of 57,900-55,500. Manage your entry accordingly; for short-term trading, control risks and manage profits and losses independently;

ETH:

From the daily chart, Ethereum's rebound during the holiday reached the 0.786 Fibonacci level of the previous downtrend, which has certain pressure. However, due to Bitcoin's breakout, our pre-holiday layout assumed Ethereum would follow suit. But then, during the holiday, Ethereum also fell. Yesterday's rise saw Ethereum touch the pressure around 2,490 before closing with a pin bar, failing to continue the rebound. This trend indicates that the bulls are being suppressed by the bears, and the upward momentum is weak. Bitcoin also faced pressure above. In the future, there is a significant chance that Ethereum will break below the short-term low of 2,150, and it is expected to approach around 2,100. This also depends on whether Bitcoin can break 60,000. In trading this week, Ethereum should primarily focus on short positions, with the pressure point around 2,490. You can use this point for stop-loss arrangements, targeting 2,275. If Bitcoin breaks 60,000, look for around 2,100. Manage your entry accordingly; for short-term trading, control risks and manage profits and losses independently;

In summary:

This week, focus on short positions around the upper pressure for Bitcoin and Ethereum, and pay attention to the breakdown situation below;

The article is time-sensitive, be aware of risks, and the above is only personal advice for reference!

Follow the public account Crypto Lao Zhao to discuss the market together;

Buddhist saying: "Impermanence" is the norm of life. The "impermanence" mentioned here refers to uncertainty and unpredictability. All the things that cause us pain are due to the excessive pursuit of certainty, such as love, family, work, and friendship. Therefore, investment is about using limited funds that can be tolerated to amplify infinitely on the basis of being able to retreat and attack, rather than being defensive everywhere; In short, use limited money that does not affect the quality of life to do things that, once successful, may change fate or improve life. Defense is just not worse than now, while offense can be better than now.

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