The more Bitcoin rises, it does not necessarily mean it will fall harder; the rise and fall are not simply a reciprocal relationship, but rather the result of a tug-of-war between bulls and bears! In the past, I instinctively thought that the more it rises, the smaller the upward space becomes, and the greater the potential for a fall. Later, I realized that this logic is incorrect; the conditions for rising and falling, along with the current environment, determine the space and intensity!

On Monday, the price of Bitcoin continued to rise, reaching 64,400. The recent short squeeze has broken the backs of the bears. Relying solely on historical models makes it difficult to cope with the current market; there is no comparability because we are living in history, being part of its creation! In facing the present, not only courage is needed, but also intelligence. Is your seatbelt fastened for every trade?

The daily chart of Bitcoin shows a long upper shadow with an inverted hammer candlestick, pushing up and then falling below the 6.28 support level. The 6.28 level is a position of top-bottom conversion in the four-hour cycle. Once it breaks, it can serve as the top resistance for the upcoming short-term market. Additionally, there is a clear top divergence pattern appearing in the four-hour cycle, as shown in the chart. In short-term trading, we only need to view it as a consolidation within a box structure. Following the afternoon's trend, the MACD in the attached chart is about to form a death cross, and the support at 6.18 is unlikely to hold. Therefore, we need to pay attention to the bottom position of the box structure around 6.0. However, one point needs to be clarified: the overall trend remains bullish. Previously, there were reports that there would be two interest rate cuts this year, which means there is a high probability of another rate cut in next month's Federal Reserve meeting!

As for Ethereum, the trend roughly follows Bitcoin, with the box structure range between 2440-2340. The short-term strategy is also to maintain a high sell and low buy approach.

Operational strategy: BTC: Open a short near 6.25, with a stop loss at 6.3, looking at 6.18 for a short-term target, and potentially seeing the 6.06-6.02 range. ETH: Open a short at 2430-2440, with a stop loss at 2470, targeting 2360-2340.

For real-time market strategy discussions and inquiries about market issues, you can follow my account homepage public account: Trader Sean.

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