This round of the A-share bull market is regarded as a "policy-driven" bull market, with its core goals and strategies focused on assisting state-owned enterprises and local governments in alleviating massive debt issues, primarily through the issuance of new shares and cashing out debt. Its development process is expected to be divided into the following three stages:

Stage One: Stock Market Surge

• Characteristics: The stock market experiences significant increases, with indices continuously climbing.

• Market Response: Retail investors actively flood into the market, while foreign capital remains cautious.

• Trading Activity: Daily trading volume reaches between 1 trillion to 3 trillion yuan, with weekly index increases of about 400 to 600 points.

• Core Purpose: Create market enthusiasm and attract capital inflow.

Stage Two: Full Participation Period

• Characteristics: Retail investors accelerate their entry into the market, while foreign capital gradually increases its allocation.

• Main Operators: The national team begins to dominate market direction, with state-owned enterprises and locally government-controlled listed companies starting to implement stock issuance to cash out funds for debt resolution.

• Market Signals: Closely monitor relevant news reports to understand issuance dynamics.

• Trading Stability: Daily trading volume stabilizes around 1 trillion yuan, with weekly index increases slowing to 100 to 300 points.

• Core Purpose: Achieve stock issuance goals and effectively cash out debt.

Stage Three: Market Adjustment Period

• Characteristics: Institutional investors begin to withdraw from the market, and the task of state-owned enterprises to increase shares for debt resolution is basically completed.

• Market Trend: The stock market enters a slow decline phase, with retail investors gradually falling into a trapped state.

• Core Impact: As institutional funds flow out, the market lacks sufficient support, leading to increased downward pressure on stock prices.

Main Judgment Logic

• Debt Scale: According to data released by the State Council, the local government’s statutory debt balance is approximately 41 trillion yuan, excluding urban investment bonds. If urban investment bonds are estimated at a 1:1 ratio, total local government debt may reach 80 trillion yuan (some opinions suggest the debt scale could be as high as 150 to 200 trillion yuan, but this data is uncertain).

• Stock Market Valuation Target: To effectively resolve 80 trillion yuan of local debt, the total market value of the stock market needs to increase to about 1.2 times the domestic GDP, which means growing from the current 90 trillion yuan to approximately 150 trillion yuan to create sufficient operational space.

In summary, the development of this round of the A-share bull market will closely revolve around policy guidance, achieving debt resolution goals through phased changes in the stock market. Investors should closely monitor market dynamics, analyze rationally, and make cautious decisions.

BTC

Yesterday provided a buying opportunity at 62600-62400, with a peak of 64478! At least a profit of over 1000 points! The current price is retracing, pay attention to the buying opportunity at 62100-61700! Stop loss if it breaks below 61700! Waiting above for 65500-66000!

ETH

Yesterday provided a short-selling opportunity at 2480-2500 and a buying opportunity at 2445-2415, achieving a double kill profit! If the price again reaches the 2420-2390 area, pay attention to the buying opportunity! Target 2530-2570! This position has the same short-selling demand upon first touch!

SOL

Yesterday provided a buying opportunity at 146-144, with a peak price of 152! Currently retracing to 143-141, pay attention to the buying opportunity! The upward target remains 158-162!

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