1. CME FedWatch shows an 83.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, with the market closely monitoring future monetary policy trends.
2. A U.S. bankruptcy judge has approved FTX's restructuring plan, with approximately 94% of creditors supporting the plan, two years after FTX's collapse.
About 94% of creditors in the "Internet Customer Equity Claims" category voted in favor of the restructuring plan, with these claims valued at approximately $6.83 billion. However, the plan has faced criticism from Sunil Kavuri, a representative of FTX's largest creditor group. Kavuri stated that the estate should pay out cryptocurrency in kind rather than in dollar value. -Original
3. Crypto market observers say Bitcoin's "Up October" trend is recovering in October and may be bullish.
4. JPMorgan analysts point out that the crypto market is in a wait-and-see mode, awaiting clearer macroeconomic or structural catalysts.
JPMorgan analysts highlighted several key factors that could impact the cryptocurrency market in the coming months, mentioning potential technological, geopolitical, and structural events that could drive price volatility. In a research report released on Monday, analysts discussed the seasonal "Uptober" trend, the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, the approval of Bitcoin ETF options, and the upcoming Ethereum Pectra upgrade. A key conclusion of the report is that October has historically shown strong performance, often referred to as "Uptober," with over 70% of October Bitcoin returns being positive. Analysts wrote, "While past performance is not indicative of future results, we believe the popularity of 'Uptober' may influence behavior and lead to positive Bitcoin performance this October." Despite the recent rate cuts by the Fed, analysts noted that the broader cryptocurrency market has yet to see the anticipated positive effects; while a rate-cutting environment typically supports risk assets, the correlation between total cryptocurrency market capitalization and the federal funds rate remains weak at 0.46. Since the Fed's rate cut on September 18, we have not seen a significant increase in cryptocurrency prices due to the rate cut, and the market may be waiting for more sustained stability before making a decisive shift. Additionally, analysts acknowledged that it is challenging to accurately predict how cryptocurrencies will respond to interest rate cycles due to a lack of historical data. Another potential catalyst is the recently approved spot Bitcoin ETF options trading. Analysts expect this could deepen market liquidity and attract new participants. This development could initiate a positive feedback loop, enhancing market structure and making digital assets more accessible to institutional investors. The upcoming Ethereum upgrade, known as "Pectra," is also seen as a significant development. Analysts stated, "While Pectra is expected to have a transformative impact on Ethereum's functionality, we believe this upgrade is more structural than a direct price catalyst; the long-term impact of Pectra will be to improve Ethereum's operational efficiency and adoption rates, but it is unlikely to trigger a short-term surge in Ether prices." Analysts concluded that the cryptocurrency market is currently in a wait-and-see mode, awaiting clearer macroeconomic or structural catalysts to drive sustained growth. They stated, "We continue to see the crypto ecosystem becoming increasingly sensitive to macro factors, so we are waiting for the next major catalyst to drive ecosystem development and enhance retail participation for long-term growth." -Original
5. 21Shares calls on EU regulators to unify ETF rules to address investor confusion caused by legal fragmentation.
In a statement on October 7, crypto investment firm 21Shares urged the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) to establish standardized regulatory rules for incorporating cryptocurrencies into Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities (UCITS) funds. The company pointed out that the current practices lack consistency, leading to confusion among retail and institutional investors across Europe. For example, Germany and Malta allow UCITS funds to include cryptocurrencies, while Luxembourg and Ireland do not. Mandy Chiu, head of financial products development at 21Shares, explained that this fragmented approach limits retail investors' ability to fully leverage cryptocurrencies. She added, "By providing a consistent set of rules across Europe, ESMA can open new avenues for investors to diversify and enhance their portfolios in a regulated environment designed to protect investors." Chiu also noted that clear and consistent rules would help stabilize the market while promoting growth in the cryptocurrency industry. Therefore, 21Shares urged ESMA to develop comprehensive guidelines that allow all EU member states to invest indirectly in cryptocurrencies. According to 21Shares, this would protect investors and broaden the channels for cryptocurrency investment. Notably, 21Shares' call for regulatory clarity comes as ESMA reviews feedback from its recent consultation on including new asset classes, including cryptocurrencies, in UCITS funds. -Original
6. If Trump is elected, Robinhood's Chief Legal Officer may become a leading contender for SEC Chair.
Dozens of former senior regulators, lobbyists, and securities lawyers have stated that if Donald Trump regains the presidency, Robinhood's Chief Legal Officer Dan Gallagher would be a leading candidate for the chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). It is unclear whether Gallagher wants to leave Robinhood. Gallagher stated that he loves his job and that "I am honored to be mentioned in discussions about who will be the next SEC chair." However, there is no doubt that Gallagher has clear disagreements with the direction of the SEC. He stated that if he had been chair over the past few years, there would have long been tailored rules, as the industry has long sought, to provide "at least a basic registration pathway" for cryptocurrency exchanges and brokers. Even so, Gallagher believes that legislation is still needed. Gallagher previously served as an SEC commissioner and is known for his affability and political acumen. Other potential candidates for SEC chair circulating on Wall Street under Trump's leadership include former Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Chris Giancarlo, nicknamed "CryptoDad" online; former SEC General Counsel Robert Stebbins, now a partner at Willkie Farr & Gallagher; and current SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, who holds a Republican seat on the five-member commission. However, reports suggest that for some Republicans, whether Gallagher can become chair has always been a matter of time rather than if it will happen. -Original
7. After record high revenue in the second quarter, FalconX is actively seeking acquisition opportunities to address future market consolidation.
Digital asset trading and brokerage firm FalconX is looking for acquisition opportunities to address a series of transactions expected in the industry. Raghu Yarlagadda, co-founder and CEO of FalconX, stated in an interview that as more institutional players enter the market and regulations tighten, the costs of cryptocurrency businesses will rise, which in turn will trigger a wave of "consolidation" in 2025. Yarlagadda added, "Currently, we are actively exploring potential acquisition opportunities and assessing key players in the relevant industries." A spokesperson for FalconX stated that the company has seen a significant increase in potential acquisition opportunities. They added that FalconX is seeking to acquire high-quality small companies focused on institutional infrastructure, data and analytics, tokenization, and expanding its trading team in 2025. FalconX's revenue in the second quarter reached a record high, growing 2.5 times compared to the same period last year. The company spokesperson stated that derivatives trading revenue grew nearly threefold. However, they declined to disclose specific figures. Founded in 2018 and headquartered in San Mateo, California, FalconX was valued at $8 billion in a $150 million funding round in 2022. According to its website, the company is backed by investors including Tiger Global, GIC, and B Capital, and has over 600 institutional clients. -Original
8. U.S. agencies warn of the threat posed by new cryptocurrency ransomware Trinity to critical infrastructure.
On October 4, the U.S. Department of Health's Cybersecurity Coordination Center (HC3) issued a warning revealing a new ransomware targeting sensitive data—Trinity. According to HC3, attackers use phishing emails, malicious websites, and software vulnerabilities to trick victims into installing the ransomware on their computers. Once installed, the software searches for and collects sensitive information on the computer to send to hackers while employing complex algorithms to encrypt the victim's files, rendering them inaccessible. Subsequently, the Trinity ransomware generates a ransom note, threatening victims that their data has been extracted and encrypted, demanding payment in exchange for a decryption key, and giving victims 24 hours to pay in cryptocurrency, or they risk data leakage. HC3 warned that Trinity ransomware primarily targets critical infrastructure, especially healthcare providers, and revealed that at least seven organizations have been attacked, with at least one U.S. healthcare entity becoming a victim. -Original
9. Riot Platforms states that Bitcoin miners will be open to AI opportunities if the right deal arises.
Jason Les, CEO of Riot Platforms, stated in an interview with Bernstein that the Bitcoin miner would be open to AI opportunities if the right deal comes along. Les cited the deal between Core Scientific and CoreWeave as an example but emphasized that the company would not simply chase the AI hype. -Original
10. The CEO of cryptocurrency custody firm Copper plans to resign, and the company may face management changes.
According to two sources familiar with the matter, Dmitry Tokarev, CEO of cryptocurrency custody firm Copper, plans to step back from the company's daily operations and resign from his position as CEO. -Original
11. Grayscale transfers approximately 3,374 ETH to Coinbase Prime address, attracting market attention.
About 7 minutes ago, Grayscale transferred a total of approximately 3,374 ETH to a Coinbase Prime hot wallet address, valued at around $8.32 million. -Original
12. Solana dominates new token issuance in 2024, with the market full of expectations for its future performance.
As we enter the last quarter of 2024, all eyes are on Solana to see if it can maintain its leading position in new token issuances. Here are excerpts from The Block's data and insights newsletter. -Original
13. A new Ethereum proposal could increase network throughput by 50%, potentially enhancing its competitiveness against other blockchains.
The new upgrade proposal for Ethereum could increase network throughput by 50%, enhancing its ability to compete with speed-focused blockchains like Solana. -Original
14. Data shows that most indicators in the crypto market declined in September, with total on-chain transaction volume decreasing by 13%.
According to a post by The Block's research director @lars0x, most indicators in the crypto market declined in September, with adjusted total on-chain transaction volume dropping by 13% to $328 billion (BTC: -10.2%, ETH: -17.8%). Adjusted on-chain stablecoin transaction volume fell by 30.8% to $832 billion, while issuance supply increased by 1.3% to $150.4 billion, with USDT accounting for 78.3% and USDC for 17.6%. In September, BTC miner revenue decreased by 4.2% to $815.3 million, while ETH staker revenue fell by 4% to $209.4 million. A total of 26,874 ETH was burned in August, equivalent to $68.2 million. Since the implementation of EIP-1559 in early August 2021, a total of 4.39 million ETH has been burned, amounting to $12.4 billion. Monthly NFT market trading volume on Ethereum decreased by 22% to $96.1 million. In September, legitimate CEX spot trading volume fell by 17.4% to $724.6 billion, with a monthly net inflow of +$1.13 billion for all BTC spot ETFs. Bitcoin futures open interest increased by 16%, while Ethereum futures open interest rose by 13%. BTC monthly futures trading volume decreased by 16.1% to $1.11 trillion, and ETH monthly futures trading volume fell by 20.8% to $465.5 billion. CME Bitcoin futures open interest increased by 14.3% to $10.3 billion (with average daily trading volume down 4.7% to $4.8 billion). Bitcoin monthly options trading volume decreased by 28.1% to $38.6 billion, while ETH monthly options trading volume fell by 37.5% to $9.7 billion. -Original
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