After a rapid surge in Bitcoin this morning, it encountered a series of bearish pullbacks, with its support level firmly resting on the key level of 62800, which has been tested multiple times recently. This area also serves as a point of top-bottom conversion. With the opening of the European market, Bitcoin's price experienced a deep retracement, as if the script of history was being played out again, repeating the classic pattern of recent trading days: "Basically, during the Asian session or just before it, the price will form a rapid surge, then during the European session, the price will retrace to test the support below, and by the time of the American session into the early morning, it will form a volatile rise." All of this clearly outlines a market picture of range-bound fluctuations. For such a trend, we just need to remain calm and continue to interpret the market rhythm's cycle and the logic of shape changes.

Understanding the Logic Behind Recent Trends from Multiple Dimensions

First, focusing on the U.S. job market, last month's non-farm data was like a heavy bombshell, not only did job growth far exceed expectations, but the unemployment rate also unexpectedly declined, and wage growth pressed the accelerator. In September, the number of non-farm jobs added reached 254,000, setting a six-month high, and the data for the previous two months was revised to show even stronger performance, with an additional increase of 72,000 jobs. The unemployment rate fell to a low of 4.1%, and hourly wages achieved a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 4%, reaching a peak since March of this year.

This series of data undoubtedly serves as a shining business card for economic vitality, but behind the gloss, the shadow of inflation has become increasingly heavy, posing an undeniable hidden concern. As a result, the market adjusted its expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, turning its attention to how it balances employment and price stability. The Federal Reserve may adjust its strategy, focusing more on the battle to curb inflation.

Secondly, on the eve of the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for November, the smoke of the U.S. presidential election has quietly spread, adding more uncertainty and variables to the market.

Furthermore, in the global manufacturing sector, according to the latest report released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI slightly decreased to 48.8% in September 2024, hovering near the boom-bust line for three consecutive months, indicating subtle fluctuations in the recovery process. There is a divergence between regions: Asian manufacturing has stabilized and rebounded first, with PMI values remaining in the expansion range; Africa has also followed closely, entering a growth track; the Americas have seen slight improvements but have not completely escaped the contraction dilemma; while Europe continues to be mired in gloom, making the path to manufacturing recovery particularly challenging. Overall, the pace of global manufacturing recovery has slightly slowed compared to last month, and the momentum for a comprehensive recovery still needs to be further accumulated.

Specific Analysis of Bitcoin's Trend

We can clearly see that the current market is still in a phase of oscillating upward. It has slightly formed a strong breakout, but in the short term, it has achieved significant success in returning above 62800. It is worth noting that a true strong breakout should be accompanied by a series of consecutive bullish candles, while the current trend clearly does not exhibit such characteristics. Although the surge before and after the Asian session was rapid, this kind of quick rebound often lacks stability and is prone to encounter a washout during the subsequent European session.

In addition, the current characteristics of the market's range-bound fluctuations are also reflected in the relatively low continuity. In such a market, chasing highs and cutting losses often leads to passivity, as the frequency of price fluctuations is high and difficult to predict. From a graphical perspective, the upper highs and lower lows are gradually converging, forming a trend of convergence.

Regarding the trading strategy for the evening, the current market's actual trend is basically in line with our predictions. Given that the market is still in an upward oscillation, we suggest paying attention to the support situation at the lower range of 62800-62300 during evening trading, first looking for a rebound to continue testing the intraday highs of 64000 and 64400 (38.2%). After reaching this area, be prepared to execute a retracement operation near this position.

In summary, under the current market environment, with strong performance in U.S. economic data and continued weakness in the European economy, coupled with the strong dollar index and significant capital flowing into the Chinese stock market, Bitcoin is unlikely to form a strong breakout in the short term and will continue to maintain a range-bound oscillation.

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