Although I don't want to pour cold water on things, the current situation of the #A-shares has formed an unfavorable condition compared to the significant positive news released on September 24.

The core issue is the strong non-farm payroll data from the United States, which led the dollar index to achieve its highest weekly increase in nearly two years, ultimately causing the RMB exchange rate to briefly fall below 7, and now it has returned to around 7.1.

Our willingness to broadly cut interest rates and reserve requirements is primarily anchored on the U.S. beginning its rate-cutting cycle, and under the rare circumstance of a 50 basis point cut at the start, there are recession expectations, and speculation that the Federal Reserve may continue to cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points in November.

Currently, the situation is that U.S. employment data is strong. Israel's actions have led to the largest weekly increase in oil prices; if Iran fully engages in war, oil prices will only become more resilient, which is expected to trigger inflation impacts. Next week, U.S. inflation data will be released, and based on the current rise in wage prices, inflation is likely to rebound. This will directly lead to a shift in the November rate cut from 25 or 50 basis points to either 25 basis points or a pause in the rate cut.

Both of these situations will have a certain impact on a series of monetary and fiscal policies for A-shares in the latter half, and the essence of investment is investment expectations. In the current rapidly changing global macro environment, how to strategize will be answered by market funds on Tuesday, but caution will always be the best policy.

Generally speaking, "when the dollar rises, everything falls," but Friday's market was still decent, and the market has not yet reacted to the risks brought by the rising dollar, which is likely a lagging response!

Typically, we see a "strong dollar, rising U.S. stocks" combination, which brings a siphoning effect, allowing funds to flow back. This situation represents the competition between Chinese and U.S. funds, as foreign capital is eyeing the market closely, and the amount of funds flowing northward cannot be ignored!

Currently, in A-shares, I still hold positions, mainly in brokerages! However, I have already taken profits and exited half before the holiday! In an unclear macro environment, under the passive T+1 situation, avoiding long holidays and weekends is the best strategy!

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