Regarding the BTC ecosystem, I still maintain the same viewpoint as before in the @threearrowzcap space: there is fundamentally no ecosystem for BTC. Its only two logical sources are:
BTC large holders hedging outside exchanges
The demand from users of postal currency cards/secondary trading platforms for low liquidity, high leverage trading with limit orders
The first point goes without saying; BTC is the largest asset category on exchanges. The primary demand for large holders of BTC is safety rather than yield (just like holding gold without caring about returns), but hedging is a tangible need, especially for those who only trade on-chain without going through exchanges.
This business has an inherent demand for asset management from exchanges, extending beyond their operations within a compliance framework. However, this sector does not require too many players; the large holders are just these few.
As for the second point, if you participated in inscriptions last year, you would notice that many users are easily identifiable as outsiders just by their WeChat profile pictures.
Have you ever thought about how these people would get involved in such a geeky narrative track like BTC chain inscriptions?
The answer lies in the postal currency cards, cultural trading markets, and spot exchanges (like Runtong) that were extremely popular over a decade ago, as well as physical arbitrageurs in markets like second-hand car sales and Xianyu.
The commonality of these markets is very low liquidity, using limit order trading (postal currency cards later transitioned to electronic trading), with terrifying leverage, and myths of getting rich overnight abound. Moreover, the trading volume is very large; back in the day, a random cultural trading market could have daily trading volumes in the hundreds of millions, and @Binance's predecessor was a postal currency trading platform.
These users do not understand what FDV and AMM model calculations are, but instead find the wealth code through muscle memory of the limit order trading model.
As for BTC? It’s just a relatively easy-to-understand narrative; you could just as easily push it with tea leaf inscriptions. It is the inscriptions that chose BTC, not BTC that developed the inscriptions.
The same logic explains why runes failed miserably while CAT20 can still be reheated; @leonidasNFT, a foreigner, fundamentally did not understand the profound nature of postal currency cards, thinking it was a cultural issue that could be resolved.
Those capital and project teams that cannot provide a large BTC TVL but still engage in the BTC ecosystem have also failed to see through the essence.
This kind of insight cannot be achieved merely by studying the three plate theory.
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