Trader Chen Shu: 10.5 Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Strategy *No. 1, Focus on the Stability of 6.17 After a Bottom Rebound

The analysis provided in the articles on the afternoon and evening of October 4 suggested a range trading strategy, initially going long before going short due to non-farm payrolls, with a trading range of 6.05-6.25. The trend judgment of the points was basically correct, and currently, the market is experiencing a short-term bottom rebound. Please see the following analysis for operational guidance.

From the daily chart of Bitcoin, it can be seen that the MA256/120-day moving averages discussed in recent articles are about to converge. The price at this line serves as the boundary between bulls and bears at 6.17. If the price can stabilize above this line, there is still potential for a short-term upward rebound to test the price range of 6.4-6.4. If this line is lost, it will revert to a weak oscillation, continuing to decline towards the $60,000 integer level. Overall trend judgment should focus on the gains and losses at the bull-bear boundary of 6.17. From the 4-hour perspective, the current price resistance levels reference the MA120-day moving average (6.27) and the 5-day limited MA30-day moving average (6.3) range pressure, while the short-term support level is at 6.17.

Ethereum provided a short position at 2420-2450 yesterday. Although there was a rebound yesterday, the strength was relatively weak compared to Bitcoin. Currently, the daily rebound is about to face the MA30-day moving average (2460) resistance level. If it touches this level for the first time, it can still be considered for a short position to look for a short-term pullback, treating it as a weak oscillation overall. The overall resistance levels reference the price range of 2460-2520.

Afternoon Trading Strategy:

BTC: Go long at 6.17, target around 6.27. If it breaks through, reduce positions and hold to look at around 6.32; if it touches 6.27-6.31 above, go short, target around 6.17. If it breaks down, reduce positions and hold to look at around 6.1 (the weekend volatility is not large, focus on high selling and low buying within the range of 6.27-6.15).

ETH: Light long near 2400, target 2440-60. Go short at 2450-80, target around 2400 (treat the weekend as high selling and low buying within the range of 2400-2450).

Note: Since the price rebounded from 60,000, yesterday closed with a solid bullish candle, coupled with ETF net inflows being favorable for the market bulls. However, from a technical perspective, it is still necessary to continuously monitor the gains and losses at 6.17. The importance of this line can serve as one of the bases for judging the medium to short-term bull-bear situation.

The daily analysis strategy has a very high win rate! Analysis is not easy, and I hope everyone can give a free follow, save, like, and comment. Thank you all, and feel free to leave messages for discussion below; I will reply one by one!

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