Trader Chen Shu: The non-farm payroll data will be released on October 4th, be careful of a double kill for Bitcoin bulls and bears!

This week, Bitcoin's market has generally shown a bearish trend, with a decline on Monday, a continuation on Tuesday, a range-bound movement on Wednesday, and fluctuations on Thursday. The price is currently hovering in the range of 60,000 to 62,000, with repeated switches between bullish and bearish, attempting to brew a larger market movement!

Last night, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the U.S. was favorable, coupled with the impact of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, Bitcoin tested the 60,000 position multiple times without continuing to decline, instead fluctuating back and forth between 60,000 and 61,000. So, can Bitcoin break the original range-bound market with the help of the non-farm employment data tonight? The rebound on Wednesday and Thursday has already indicated that a downward drop will not directly break through in the short term; it is merely a range-bound market, not a one-sided decline. The market expects 142,000 for September's non-farm employment data, with a previous value of 140,000, and the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.2%. This time, the market's expectations for the non-farm data are relatively conservative, with little difference between the previous value and the expectation, which means the probability of forming a one-sided economic trend is relatively high!

From the current market perspective, there is a clear support level forming around 60,000. If the 60,000 mark does not break, it is expected to maintain a range-bound trend, making it difficult to establish a one-sided market. Even with the catalyst of tonight's non-farm data, we need to wait for a breakout of the range. Overall, the thought process remains consistent with the analysis article from the afternoon, focusing first on the breakout situation of the 60,000 to 62,000 range, as well as the gains and losses at the dividing line of 61,700.

Therefore, my strategy today is to consider entering a long position first, waiting for the price to rise, and then looking for an opportunity to exit before the U.S. market opens to enter a short position. If the Asian and European markets continue to rise, it is very likely that the U.S. market will experience a pullback after a spike, continuing to wash out positions. Currently, the overall market is in a range-bound state, not a very strong one-sided trend. As for whether a breakout can occur, there is currently no effective technical support seen.

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