Today, I clearly state that I will not provide any operational advice. The content of this article is merely an interpretation of the non-farm payroll data and a forecast based on this interpretation for the subsequent market trends.

I personally believe that tonight's non-farm payroll data does not require attention to whether it is good or bad news, because regardless of the outcome, the market will either remain calm or experience sharp fluctuations, almost providing no opportunity for operation. For me, I cannot grasp such volatility, so I do not recommend anyone to operate. The key is that after the non-farm data is released, the market returns to normal, and then we can proceed to the next step. The long-term trend position was locked in around 60000 last night to secure profits, as I do not want to pay for unexpected fluctuations.

As usual, we will first review the past, then make simulated assumptions, and finally validate them.

Yesterday, I simulated a W double bottom rebound trend in the article, and this was completely validated by the subsequent market fluctuations. The 60000 double bottom formed a rebound, and 61500 became the neckline resistance level.

Shorting at 61000 was stable, reaching the 60000 round number. This is not the main point; the main point is that according to the preset market, if the W double bottom rebound confirms a successful trend reversal, the market should directly break through 61500 and accelerate upward. The result was that not only did it fail to break through 61500 in the evening, but it even fell below the 60000 round number.

From a bullish perspective: the overall downtrend means that going long is against the trend. I can only wait for a suitable position; 60000 is an excellent point to sneak in a long position. If it falls below 60000, I will have to run.

In reality: at nine o'clock, it fell below 60000, and long positions were a bit fearful. Fortunately, it was a false alarm; after breaking below 60000, it quickly rebounded and returned, and the hourly chart showed a downward rebound line, stabilizing long positions. At ten o'clock, the trend continued to decline, and there were multiple tests of the 60000 bottom. Short-term long positions felt immense pressure, and retail investors who had sneaked in long positions faced the challenges of going against the trend, breaking the bottom, being unable to accelerate upward, and continuously testing 60000. At this point, retail investors, while still in profit with their long positions, could only choose to close their positions for small profits.

From a bearish perspective: the overall downtrend means that shorting is in line with the trend. There were no suitable high points for shorting in the short term, and the 60000 floor could break at any time, triggering a new round of accelerated decline.

In reality: at nine o'clock, it broke below 60000, and the bears were about to start accelerating downward. With no high points to short, they could only chase the market down to profit from the acceleration. The market briefly broke below 60000 and quickly rebounded, trapping those who chased the shorts. The market subsequently tested the bottom multiple times, but short positions could not gain profits and were trapped. Now, they could only hope that the non-farm data would provide an opportunity, and the 61500 resistance still had an effect. If it breaks through 61500, those who chased the shorts would have to passively choose to surrender.

Considering both bullish and bearish perspectives, we can conclude that the number of long positions in the market is very small. Most long positions were forced to take profits and exit due to the repeated fluctuations last night. Technical traders who chased shorts are currently trapped. They now face two tests: first, they hope the market does not break through 61500; otherwise, they will be forced out. Second, they hope the non-farm data can break through the 60000 bottom to free themselves from being trapped.

Now, the forecast for tonight's non-farm market is out.

If the market remains below 61500 in the afternoon and experiences multiple small pullbacks (maintaining between 60500-60800), then there will be no entry point for new long positions, while trapped short positions will see effective pressure. If there is hope for a pullback, they will hold on tightly. When the non-farm data is released tonight, there will be a wave of accelerated upward movement that will blow up the trapped short positions.

If the market breaks through 61500 before the data is released in the afternoon, then short positions will face forced stop-losses, opening up hopes for an upward movement. The non-farm data will first rapidly drop to 59500-59000.

After reviewing the overall simulation, you can see that if you operate today, you cannot chase long positions in the current market; you can only wait for a pullback to 60500 or even lower. Otherwise, the stop-loss will be too large, and the market will not give an opportunity to trap short positions below 60500 (worried that short positions will run away with small losses). If they really dare to give an opportunity to buy long below 60500, it will definitely be to trigger your long position stop-loss.

If you open a short position near 61500, although the stop-loss is small (300 points), the profit is also small. To trap short positions, the pullback will only be about 500 points. Even if the subsequent market experiences a significant drop, the market will first break through 61500 to force low short positions to stop-loss. You will also be forced to stop-loss. You might say you are stubborn and raise your stop-loss, but to where? The previous high point of 62300? That would mean a stop-loss of 800-1000 points. What if it breaks through 62300? The stop-loss will hurt, and if you don’t stop-loss, you will be deeply trapped or even blown up.

So why does the hunter not let everyone operate today? Because there is completely no profit space. It seems there is volatility, but in reality, it is all garbage volatility.

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