_Tonight's Non-Farm Data is Coming: _
The non-farm employment data on October 4th is crucial for the Federal Reserve, especially as it is the first employment report after the interest rate cut. Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the labor market, and the 50 basis point rate cut in September was based on employment data. He has stated that if he had known the employment situation in July, he might have cut rates earlier.
In short, employment data holds a very high status in the eyes of the Federal Reserve. For investors, a rising unemployment rate may signal a recession in the U.S. The Federal Reserve is resolute about the unemployment rate, setting a median unemployment rate of 4.4% for 2024-2025, unwilling to see it rise.
With numerous macroeconomic data points, the unemployment rate is the most critical. The higher the unemployment rate, the greater the risk of recession. Tonight's data interpretation:
Unemployment Rate: Previous value 4.2%, expected 4.2%. Maintaining or decreasing is favorable; if it does not rise, recession expectations will not hold.
Employment Numbers: The more, the better; market expectations have slightly decreased, but it is not a big issue. Attention should also be paid to the labor participation rate.
Wages: The Federal Reserve once viewed wages as a driver of inflation, but now sees them as economic support.
In summary, a non-rising unemployment rate is not bearish; if it rises, even a slight increase of 0.1% could trigger market panic. Some expect that a rising unemployment rate will force the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50 basis points in November, but this may be interpreted as recession expectations, which may not be a good thing. Other key data include employment numbers and wage levels.
BTC
The daily report yesterday indicated a temporary support at 60000-59500, with profits exceeding 1000 points! Currently, we are still waiting for a downward acceleration, targeting 59500-59000! Therefore, if the price rebounds for the first time to 61800-62300, there is still a demand for shorting. If the price reaches 59500-59000, pay attention to buying opportunities!
ETH
The daily report yesterday provided a precise rebound at 2330-2280, with the price dropping to a low of 2310, currently yielding a profit of 70 points! Currently, we need to pay attention to whether 2403 can break through effectively, causing structural damage? If successful, follow up near 2350 on a pullback, looking upwards at 2480-2500! If it fails, continue to pay attention to buying opportunities at 2280-2250!
SOL
Continuing to oscillate downwards, the position near 136 from yesterday can be taken to secure profits! Continue to wait for buying opportunities at the lower range of 130-127!
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