Trader Chen Shu: Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Strategy on October 4th - Weak Fluctuation Suggests Short on Rebound

In the analysis provided in the article on October 3rd, a range trading strategy was suggested, with a long position idea at the current price of 6.13-6.1. The rebound was weak, and in the afternoon and evening, it broke below the 60,000 support level. Unfortunately, it was advised to exit with a break-even or small loss on the rebound. Currently, the market is in a short-term weak fluctuation. Please see the following analysis for operational guidance.

From the daily chart of Bitcoin, the overall market trend appears weak. After the price pierced 60,000 in the evening, it has been fluctuating weakly. The intraday rebound high failed to break and stabilize above the MA256 daily moving average (6.14). If the daily line loses the MA60 daily moving average (60,000), the price will further test the 59,000 support and the 55,000 low. It is crucial to pay attention to the breaking situation at the 60,000 integer level. For the trend to end the downward fluctuation, it not only needs to stabilize above 60,000 but also break through the 6.15-20 range. Therefore, the next trend judgment will still be based on the breaking of the 6-6.2 range for trend-following operations.

Ethereum has shown a one-sided downward trend today, with the rebound strength unable to break through the 4-hour MA5 daily moving average. The points mentioned in today's article did not reach the rebound level. Currently, Ethereum's resistance level is in the 2380-2400 price range. If this level cannot be reclaimed, it will continue the bearish trend towards the 2170-2110 range. It is not recommended to enter long positions at this time; instead, look for short opportunities on rebounds.

Operational Ideas for Early Morning:

BTC: Light long near 60,000, targeting around 1,000 points (if participating in long positions, a small stop loss is necessary). Above 6.1-6.15, consider light short positions. If it rebounds to 6.2, you can increase the short position, targeting 60,000. If it breaks, reduce the position and hold to look at 59,000. For a more conservative approach, wait for a confirmed break below 60,000 before shorting to look at around 59,000 (if the short position breaks below 60,000, it can be adjusted to a medium-term short looking at around 55,000; for long positions near 6.1 in the afternoon, it is advised to exit with a break-even after the rebound).

ETH: Light short at 2350/2380 on the rebound, targeting 2320. If it breaks, reduce the position and hold to look at around 2280 (if Bitcoin breaks below 60,000, also look at the medium-term target around 2100).

Note: Currently, the price continues to fluctuate around 60,000, but the overall rebound strength is relatively weak. The possibility of a downward break is greater, so it is recommended to short on rebounds for more safety. If it breaks below 60,000, a significant level of correction may occur again. However, if the price breaks and stabilizes above the 6.15-6.2 range, you can abandon the short position.

The daily analysis strategy has a very high win rate! Analysis is not easy, and I hope everyone can give a free follow, save, like, and comment. Thank you all, and feel free to leave messages for discussion below; I will reply one by one!

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