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This week's non-farm payrolls may determine whether interest rate cuts accelerate

In September, the U.S. ADP employment numbers increased by 143,000, exceeding the expected 125,000, a result that surpassed almost all economists' predictions. The previous value for August was also revised up from 99,000 to 103,000. However, wage growth has declined again, with the wage increase for original job holders dropping slightly to 4.7% over 12 months, and the wage increase for job changers falling to 6.6%, down 0.7 percentage points from August. It is worth noting that despite the rebound in September data, the three-month average employment number is only 119,000, one of the lowest levels since 2020.

The latest employment market data, to be released tomorrow, Friday, is expected to reinforce the trend of moderate cooling. Economists predict that 146,000 jobs were created last month, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.2%. This report roughly aligns with the 142,000 jobs created in August.

If there are any new signs of deterioration in the job market, even if Federal Reserve policymakers expect to cut rates by 25 basis points in November and December, the Fed may be forced to accelerate the pace of rate cuts after an initial 50 basis point cut.

Powell stated earlier this week

The Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee is expected to continue cutting rates at a cautious pace. "This is not a committee that is eager to cut rates quickly," Powell said in a speech at the annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics. He also reiterated that the consensus among Fed officials outlined in the September meeting is to cut rates two more times this year, each by 25 basis points.

Powell said, "This does not mean there will be more 50 basis point cuts." However, he added that if the economic slowdown exceeds expectations, the committee could cut rates more quickly. He stated, "We will do what is necessary based on the pace of actions."

Thought Planning:

We can see the rise during the European session yesterday, and the U.S. session also formed a pullback after a spike, but it also performed a washout action with a second upward probe followed by a drop. Today, the Asian and European sessions continue to rise, while the U.S. session shows a large bearish candle probing downwards. In the range-bound market, the European session quickly surged, and without an effective breakthrough of the key resistance above, it will be difficult to continue strengthening, and it may easily limit the rise in the U.S. session, leading to a spike and drop.

Since we have returned to a range-bound market, on one hand, we should pay attention to the resistance at the 61,500 level above, and on the other hand, we should monitor the support at the 60,000 round number below. Depending on the situation, we will observe the price action around the upper resistance and whether it can further drop to the 58,500 level during today's and tomorrow's non-farm payrolls.

In summary:

The cryptocurrency market lacks strong fundamental guidance, and currently, more funds are flowing into the stock market. Coupled with the mild trend before the non-farm payrolls, the overall market will continue to operate within a range. The evening's pullback space, from the upper high point, has repeatedly stopped at the 61,500 level under this resistance, continuing to pull back, while the lower side has repeatedly found support at the 60,000 level. The main focus is on the support situation at the 60,000 level.

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